To Bet Or Not To Bet?
 

villian is not good, 37/11/2.6, will bet it up and pay off a bit. So I like to play fairly tight against him, excercise pot control, figuring I'll get paid if i hit.

NL 5/10. Effective stacks 1200. Folded to me in MP. I make it 30 with AdKd. Button calls. Rest fold.

Flop is [5D, 8S, 9C] (75 in pot)
I bet 45. Villian Calls.

Turn is 6D. (165 in pot)
I check, villian bets 45. I call.

River is 3D. (255 in pot)

I....???

Re: To Bet Or Not To Bet?
 

His turn bet was pretty weak... hard to put him on much.

I think you need to value bet this here unless he will bluff a lot in this spot AND will pay off a check raise with a 7 here. Admittedly, though, this does look like a good pot to try and steal (for villian if checked to), but I see him with a made hand that just wants to get to showdown more often than I see him with a bust.

Bet 2/3 the pot, and be glad he gave you good odds to draw. He might think you're bluffing anyway, and he still pays off with a 7.

Re: To Bet Or Not To Bet?
 

You have to lead, but not too strong too get value from two pair hands (or maybe even some one pair hands). The straight might raise a weak bet (say 1/3 pot), as will a lower flush. Both might only call a strong bet, while they likely fold to a check/raise.

The only scenario where you get value from a check (/raise) is when villain is on complete air, or when he is a complete nit.

Marnix

Re: To Bet Or Not To Bet?
 

I bet about half pot; he folded.

I think that was prob the right play, just checkin. I figure with the bet, he calls a straight, maybe mini raises a smaller flush.