on the river, I change my plan
 

Villian is tight passive after 56 hands, no specific reads
After the flop, I plan on chack/calling down until the river hits

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.66 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7.66 BB

Re: on the river, I change my plan
 

why wouldn't you c/r the flop or something? Did you really expect him to bet the entire way with something worse than a pair of 8s? Since he's tight passive I'd c/r the flop, bet the turn and see what happens.

Re: on the river, I change my plan
 

CR'ing the flop may be good advice. But I decided to try and see a SD on the cheap. The way I see it is if I was dominated but my kicker paired then by check/calling the flop, letting the turn get checked through, and betting the river, I'm pretty much certain to get a river call. To me, this is better than check/raising the flop and risk getting 3-bet by an overpair.

This was a game time decision but I'm sure I was considering bet/folding the river, until that King spiked.

Re: on the river, I change my plan
 

You have to c/r this flop. Seeing a showdown cheap is not nearly as important as making money with the best hand (or folding the worst)

Re: on the river, I change my plan
 

With a tight passive if you're 3bet on the flop you can call and dump it on the turn- he's not doing that with air. However if he calls i'd lead the turn. After he leads the turn in position i think id dump it regardless of the river (minus an 8 or A) since again, i dont think he bets overcards on that turn.

Re: on the river, I change my plan
 

The thing is, we don't know the turn an river action on the flop.

On the flop we have to c/r. If he calls, lead the turn, and then lead the river. I fold to a raise on the river.

Re: on the river, I change my plan
 

[ QUOTE ]
The thing is, we don't know the turn an river action on the flop.

On the flop we have to c/r. If he calls, lead the turn, and then lead the river. I fold to a raise on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

i get the impression that the line he wanted was c/c flop, c turn and see it get checked behind and then lead the river. that line sucks here. i'd rather c/r the flop and lead the turn and get some $. if he 3bets us we can call for an 8 or A and then fold if we miss. I really dont think this villian is betting a worse hand on the turn so why are we calling?

the math (abbreviated version)
 

First off, It seems that most people are advocating the flop c/r because I'm likely ahead. I disagree. I think I'm ahead roughly half the time. If villian will raise AJs then slightly more than that.

With my line, I loose 1 bb more when I'm behind, win the same when I'm ahead and will draw out 10% more often but get drawn out on 7% more often. In other words, I loose 1 bb more but win 3% more often.

The extra 3% of the time that I will win because I took my line and saw the river card will net me a fourth of a bb. If i can make up the other 3/4 by seeing the SD then I like it.

The question is how often will I get 3 bet with overs and turn bet into by a suspected Tight Passive if I c/r the flop? If it's anywhere near 9% of the time then I like my line. If it's less than that then I guess I like your alls line.