The Limp Reraise - An Analysis
 

So another LRR thread came up last night which got me thinking. For as long as I've been lurking here it seems there has always been a semi-split between people who think the LRR means GAMBOOL and those who think it means a big hand more often than not. I believe I remember Ed Miller talking about how it most often means suited connectors in his experience.

Anyway, to the best of my knowledge, nobody has (recently at least) went through PokerTracker to actually take a look at what hands these guys are LRR with.

So I went through my database of 2/4 hands since that's the limit many of us play and wrote down the first 200 LRR that WENT TO SHOWDOWN. This is a critical point as weaker hands (like suited connectors) will be folding some percent of the time while the big hands will usually not.

So, maybe everybody can help out with what this all means (if anything), but here is what I found:

AA - 29
KK - 22
QQ - 9
JJ - 6
TT - 5
99 - 5
88 - 3
77 - 2
66 - 2
55 - 5
33 - 2
22 - 2

AKs - 6
AQs - 3
AJs - 2
ATs - 3
A9s - 2
A8s - 1
A7s - 1
A5s - 1
A4s - 1
A3s - 1
AKo - 16
AQo - 5
AJo - 4
ATo - 6
A9o - 2
A8o - 1
A4o - 2

KQs - 3
KJs - 1
K9s - 1
K8s - 1
K6s - 1
K5s - 2
KQo - 4
K9o - 1
K5o - 1

QTs - 1
Q9s - 1
Q6s - 1
Q3s - 2
QJo - 4
Q9o - 1

JTs - 1
J9s - 2
J8s - 1
J5s - 1
JTo - 3
J9o - 3
J7o - 1
J4o - 1

T9s - 1
T8s - 1
T8o - 1
T4o - 1
96s - 1
87s - 1
75s - 1
72o - 1
65o - 2
54s - 2
32o - 1

I'm randomly guessing that premium hands (I'll say 99+ and AQ+) are about twice as likely to see showdown as non-premium based on WTSD numbers. If this is correct:

Premium - 106 = 36%
Non-Premium - 94 (*2) = 64%

Basically, I guess my conclusion is that approximately 2/3 of the time, the LRR is nothing to get too concerned about.

If there's a flaw in my methodology please let me know.

Re: The Limp Reraise - An Analysis
 

Jake, you have done an incredibly valuable service to everyone on this board, and all I can say is thank you.

I think there is a very valuable message here even without strict analysis:

Only 51 of 200 hands that went to showdown were AA or KK. Meaning at least 75% of the time the raise is not one of the two monsters many expect it to be.

This is really awesome. This rules. I can't say enough good things about Jake. I fully plan on using the 2/3 number in determining the strength implied by a limp-reraise in my future play.

Re: The Limp Reraise - An Analysis
 

did you find some correlation between premium hand LRR's into larger fields?

i.e. One hand the LRR was heads up, in another there were 3 limpers before the initial raise, is AA/KK a more likely holding in the non-heads-up hand?

Re: The Limp Reraise - An Analysis
 

My sarcasm-o-meter has no idea how to interpret this post.

Re: The Limp Reraise - An Analysis
 

[ QUOTE ]
My sarcasm-o-meter has no idea how to interpret this post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hahahaha...

I honestly don't mean this to be in any way sarcastic.

Jake is a great contributor here and I think he does some of the great "dirty work" (like putting together the digest) that is really helpful. This is such an example; I never would have done this, but I find his information quite helpful and I think it will prove very useful in future discussions involving hands with limp-reraises.

I guess this is just one of those cases where I was so genuiniely enthusiastic my attitude could be interpreted as sarcastic. I'm such a jackass.

Re: The Limp Reraise - An Analysis
 

Haha yeah it was exactly that. SO ENTHUSIASTIC!!!!!

Re: The Limp Reraise - An Analysis
 

[ QUOTE ]
Haha yeah it was exactly that. SO ENTHUSIASTIC!!!!!

[/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Re: The Limp Reraise - An Analysis
 

I seem to remember more of the GAMBOOL-type LRRs at 2/4 than at 3/6.

This makes some sense, as the pots tend to be more multiway at 2/4.

I also think I encountered LRRs more in general at 2/4 than at 3/6.

I have no numbers to back this up, but that's the way I remember it.

Re: The Limp Reraise - An Analysis
 

But how many of the bogus LRR were made by maniacs. We're not talking about premium AA/KK vs. Gambooling 87s. You have LRR with 32o,72o,J4o etc. No sane player LRR with these hands. I think you need to play the player more than the stats on this one and assign percentages accordingly.

Re: The Limp Reraise - An Analysis
 

Saw a guy limp/cap from UTG with K7s on Party 2/4. True story. He called down with a pair of sevens.

Honestly, unless I know that the limp/reraiser is a solid player who isn't going to be doing that with crap (and the situation doesn't lend itself to a LRR with semi-crap, i.e. small/medium PP or suited connector), I pretty much ignore the LRR.

FWIW, I've LRR'd 5 times in my last 25k hands (5 times not on a 2+2 table, at least [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]). AA, KK, AKo, 88, and 55. The 88 & 55 hands were both after a couple limpers behind me and an LP raise.