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-   -   Bubble Play with KK (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=407841)

12-30-2005 04:40 PM

Bubble Play with KK
 
OK fellow 2+2ers, I seldom post but this hand got me thinking long after the tourney.

FT $24+2 with 176 starting. We are down to 19, and 18 places pay. TD just announced Hand by Hand for 3 tables. We have 7 at ours.

I had wonderful reads on everyone involved. UTG+1 was weak tight and would fold to almost any re-raise. CO was a solid TAG & we had been together for almost 40 minutes. I had a solid TAG with nothing but good cards shown for the whole time. First time I have not been caught stealing [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]! I am currently in 10th place with two players who will not survive the next BB. Avg = t13,900.

UTG+1 (t7000)
CO (t13,500)
Hero in BB (t11,200)

Action:
UTG+1 limps (t1000); CO raises to t2500;

Hero has KK in BB. What's my line?

benneh 12-30-2005 04:43 PM

Re: Bubble Play with KK
 
Push

12-30-2005 04:46 PM

Re: Bubble Play with KK
 
[ QUOTE ]
Push

[/ QUOTE ]

If the situation were so cut & dried, I wouldn't have posted. If anyone's answer is "push", please give your reasoning.

12-30-2005 04:47 PM

Re: Bubble Play with KK
 
Push

If he calls with AA, it just wasn't your day.
If he calls with QQ/JJ, it just wasn't his day.
If he calls with anything else, he deserves what he gets.

12-30-2005 04:53 PM

Re: Bubble Play with KK
 
To expand a bit:

I don't play just to limp into the money. I want to make the top 5 (which is usually where the good money is).

The money already in the pot is almost half your stack, so taking it down represents a big win.

The TAG has apparently seen the limper fold in a situation like this before, so could be doing this with any decent hand.

There is a total of one hand you're truly afraid of: AA, but any flop with an Ace is bad news.

There is no reason to let the Villain see the flop without being pot committed ahead of time. He needs to out-flop you, not the reverse.

Art Vandelay 12-30-2005 04:59 PM

Re: Bubble Play with KK
 
First things, folding obviously is not an option and calling is not going to happen here (potentially 3 way pot out of position, yuck). So, the question becomes how much to raise in my view.

Option 1: Min reraise to 5k. UTG+1 becomes pot committed if he's calling this, so if he's playing it's for all his chips. Unless CO is absoltuely donktastic, he's calling another 2.5k into this now monster pot. This is half your stack so I'm not sure I like this move. If you go this route you are pushing nearly any flop, though 3 way with an Ace on the flop you are toast most likely.

Option 2: Push. Any raise other than a min reraise is for too much of your stack so I think it has to be a push. UTG+1 is still in the same boat, as he's playing for all his chips if he continues in this hand regardless of your action. Now, CO has a difficult decision as you've made it much more difficult for him to call off virtually all of his stack, leaving him with ~2BB. If he calls, great, you have the potential to more than double and if UTG+1 calls (I have a feeling you found one of those AA EP limpers) you could really land a big score with your premium holding. If he folds I'm hoping for an UTG+1 call and hopefully we can KO him.

Worst case you push both fold and you add 5k to your stack for an increase of ~33%. Not a bad return on KK. I like the push.

davidross 12-30-2005 05:24 PM

Re: Bubble Play with KK
 
I can't imagine any play other than push. Presumably the CO has the same read on UTG as you do so he could raise with a lot of hands. Even if his range is AK/AA I think a push is in order,and obviously his range is much wider than this.

I'd like to cash, but finishing high is much more important, I'll take the 4500 if they fold, but i'll love the 23K when i double.

Dave D 12-30-2005 05:29 PM

Re: Bubble Play with KK
 
[ QUOTE ]
Push

[/ QUOTE ]

You have 11 blinds, and even if they both fold you increase your stack by 50% (2.5k+1k+1k+.5k). Ideally one of them will call with a hand less than KK.

The only hand you're scared of is AA. It's possible...but unlikely. Don't forget you're playing for first.

12-30-2005 05:34 PM

Re: Bubble Play with KK
 
All in here is the only option. I can't imagine even the worst player slow playing aces given his stack and the fact that he's BB next hand, so you know you have him beat.

If UTG calls your all in and TAG folds, even if you're drawn out on you still have enough chips to possibly make something happen.

If UTG folds and TAG calls, then at the very least you know you put your money in with the best hand (AA is POSSIBLE, of course, but certainly not probable enough to get away from the hand for that reason).

If you fear a drawing hand that can really improve over you (say AQ suited), and you'd rather just make the money than have a chance to double up and win the thing, then fold.

I push all-in here, though.

tshak 12-30-2005 06:01 PM

Re: Bubble Play with KK
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Push

[/ QUOTE ]

If the situation were so cut & dried, I wouldn't have posted. If anyone's answer is "push", please give your reasoning.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm curious as to what makes you feel like this is not a cut & dried situation? I agree that this is a pretty standard push. Sure we want CO coming along. Depending on the type of player he is I think that a push accomplishes this just as much as any other raise so I'd rather just get them in now.

JeanieJ 12-30-2005 07:06 PM

Re: Bubble Play with KK
 
[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious as to what makes you feel like this is not a cut & dried situation? I agree that this is a pretty standard push. Sure we want CO coming along. Depending on the type of player he is I think that a push accomplishes this just as much as any other raise so I'd rather just get them in now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. The only thing that should be going through your mind right now is how to get your chips in the middle. If he does have aces, well then that's very unlucky for you. We all lose on the bubble from time to time.

Standard Push IMO.

ansky451 12-30-2005 07:14 PM

Re: Bubble Play with KK
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Push

[/ QUOTE ]

If the situation were so cut & dried, I wouldn't have posted. If anyone's answer is "push", please give your reasoning.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's very cut and dried.

You have 12 big blinds.
Theres a limper.
Theres a raiser.
You have the second best hand in hold'em.

Show me where the uncut and wet part is.

benneh 12-30-2005 07:31 PM

Re: Bubble Play with KK
 
I'm sorry for not responding quicker, but this actually IS rather standard and boring. I'm sorry that you got bad beat, or ran into aces, or that everyone folded to your all in raise. I'm sure one of these had to happen, or I can't imagine why you would bother posting this as a hand that you thought oh so long and hard about. Just know that a push is the best play here 100 times out of 100 times and find some more interesting hands from the tournament and post them instead.

Exitonly 12-30-2005 08:16 PM

Re: Bubble Play with KK
 
this thread caused me to find this:

Awesome

i'm going to be a smartter person in no time.

(i thought it was cut and dry. not cut and dried. ::the more you know NBC clip::)

stinkysam 12-30-2005 08:26 PM

Re: Bubble Play with KK
 
You mean me don't get "French Benefits"?

12-30-2005 09:05 PM

Results (with a little LC if permissable)
 
Of course I pushed. BUT - I though about it. My good read on the TAG was AA-QQ and AK. UTG+1 folded & the TAG called. Obviously he showed AA by my earlier comments.

Here's the thing - I knew he had it. It was either AA or QQ since I held Kings. I thought that my best chance to win was to fold or hope I was wrong.

I'm certainly not complaining and it isn't a bad beat or sour grapes - my only thought when seeing KK was to get the max chips in the pot. The TAG's raise caused me to stop playing on "KK auto-pilot" and think.

When DO you trust that voice in your head?

adanthar 12-30-2005 09:24 PM

Re: Results (with a little LC if permissable)
 
[ QUOTE ]

Here's the thing - I knew he had it. It was either AA or QQ since I held Kings.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

davidross 12-30-2005 10:14 PM

Re: Results (with a little LC if permissable)
 
I just don't see how you can make that read. You said the guy is good and UTG will fold to a re-raise. He has the guy covered and it would seem to me that he could have anything here.

Having said that, I may be the only person here who wouldn't roast you for folding. go with your read no matter what. Even fold aces here if you want, you'll make the money, and you might get another big hand later. Pretend you went to the bathroom and missed it or misclicked and folded. You haven't lost anything but an opportunity.

benneh 12-30-2005 10:31 PM

Re: Results (with a little LC if permissable)
 
[ QUOTE ]


When DO you trust that voice in your head?

[/ QUOTE ]

When I've got a ginormous stack that can afford folding, not an M of 8. And when I have more evidence than "limper, tight player raised weakly." There's gona have to be a lot more raising for entire chipstacks before I think about folding the second best hand in hold 'em. Even if I know that he HAS to have AA, QQ, or AK (which you're a favorite against).

whiskeytown 12-31-2005 12:28 AM

Re: Bubble Play with KK - and alternate play?
 
this and Davidross's reply reminded me of a hand...

I was BB with 93 or something and flopped top pair - turn comes with an overcard and my opponent bets -

and I was in the tank for 15 seconds...and then I said "wait a sec...this is my BB - I don't give a rats ass if I fold top pair with no kicker or not - I don't WANT this hand and I'm lucky I got any part of the flop and probably not that lucky at all."

If you fold, no one will know that you're tight and laid down a monster - but in this spot, I don't see how I could get away from it - I'd be all in so fast I might get a fold just out of fear - LOL.

I've never had a read on anyone as so TAG that I could lay down KK that easily.

What's everyone's opinion on just smoothcalling the raise and pushing all in on any flop that doesn't have an A? Sometimes I do this near the bubble - just cause everyone's playing an A - I think this is wrong...but at the same time, if I'm seeing AK, it's easier to play it this way and knock them out post flop then letting them see all 5 cards, which they would do if we both got allin preflop.

I figure I'm allin preflop or postflop, I'm gonna get a caller - but my chances of getting a muck post flop are much greater if that flop comes and misses - if he hits, well, he probably would have hit if I had gone allin preflop anyways...

I sorta like playing that way - a lot of players will shrug and call an all-in on a draw with hands like A7 suited but a lot fewer do it post flop after they don't get their A or two spades.

RB

TwistedEcho 12-31-2005 12:34 AM

Re: Bubble Play with KK - and alternate play?
 
or we can get allin preflop a big fav? If the flop comes rags, you can lose AQ/AJ, same if the flop comes KQx and he has JJ or something. Get allin preflop, and your ahead by a lot usually - ok sure bubbling sucks, but you want a stack to contend on the final table, not JUST itm right?

stevepa 12-31-2005 12:46 AM

Re: Results (with a little LC if permissable)
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Here's the thing - I knew he had it. It was either AA or QQ since I held Kings.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

[/ QUOTE ]

Just so OP knows why this quote is funny...given you have KK, there are 6 combos of AA, 6 of QQ and 8 of AK. So your "he has AA or QQ b/c I have KK" is flawed. Your equity against his (absurdly tight) range of AA-QQ, AK is then 57.3% and you have an easy push.

Steve

Note that even if his range is only AA, QQ, you should still push because of the dead money from the limper and blinds.

jcm4ccc 12-31-2005 01:25 AM

Re: Bubble Play with KK - and alternate play?
 
[ QUOTE ]
What's everyone's opinion on just smoothcalling the raise and pushing all in on any flop that doesn't have an A?

[/ QUOTE ] Very bad, I think. If the flop doesn't have an Ace, then you'll regret that you didn't push preflop, because those people with Aces will fold when you want them to call.

With KK, don't look to minimize your losses. Look to maximize your gain. Push. If anyone calls you with less than AA, then you've made a successful play, regardless of the outcome.

jcm4ccc 12-31-2005 01:27 AM

Re: Bubble Play with KK - and alternate play?
 
[ QUOTE ]
a lot of players will shrug and call an all-in on a draw with hands like A7 suited but a lot fewer do it post flop after they don't get their A or two spades.

RB

[/ QUOTE ] Which is EXACTLY why this is a bad play.

nath 12-31-2005 03:01 AM

Re: Bubble Play with KK - and alternate play?
 
It's freakin' kings. You wouldn't be making this post if he turned over QQ or JJ and that happens plenty often enough.
Look, if I have to put an opponent on exactly one hand that beats me, and I don't have enough information to do that with sheer certainty, I don't fold. You don't get enough good hands in MTTs to outthink yourself on the big ones.

ZBTHorton 12-31-2005 03:05 AM

Re: Bubble Play with KK
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Push

[/ QUOTE ]

If the situation were so cut & dried, I wouldn't have posted. If anyone's answer is "push", please give your reasoning.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's very cut and dried.

You have 12 big blinds.
Theres a limper.
Theres a raiser.
You have the second best hand in hold'em.

Show me where the uncut and wet part is.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rick Diesel 12-31-2005 03:55 AM

Re: Bubble Play with KK
 
Please stop being so results oriented. This is a clear push, and anyone that disagrees and claims that they can read an online player well enough to know that they have aces here is definitely crazy. You got unlucky, and that is part of the game. Move on.

ansky451 12-31-2005 08:09 AM

Re: Results (with a little LC if permissable)
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Here's the thing - I knew he had it. It was either AA or QQ since I held Kings.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

[/ QUOTE ]

ansky451 12-31-2005 08:10 AM

Re: Results (with a little LC if permissable)
 
Do you actually beleive this? You are being results oriented beyond belief right now. Then again, I'm a lil drunk, so I probably would be results oriented too.

12-31-2005 10:03 AM

Re: Results (with a little LC if permissable)
 
Wait. UTG+1 made a standard 2.5xBB raise and you were SURE it was aces? I don't see how you could narrow it down that far based on a standard opening raise unless the UTG+1 player hasn't played a hand in about 10 orbits. Then perhaps you can narrow it down to one of two holdings with a single tidbit of information.

See monsters under the bed often?

27offsuit 12-31-2005 12:45 PM

Re: Bubble Play with KK
 
[ QUOTE ]
Push

If he calls with AA, it just wasn't your day.
If he calls with QQ/JJ, it just wasn't his day.
If he calls with anything else, he deserves what he gets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well said.

tshak 12-31-2005 01:37 PM

Re: Results (with a little LC if permissable)
 
[ QUOTE ]

When DO you trust that voice in your head?

[/ QUOTE ]

When it tells me to push KK in this spot.

P.S. No offense, but you did not make a good read. How in the world can you put that range on Villian? Unless you've played 100's of hands with him and the only time he raises to 2.5x BB in is with exactly this hand range, you're kidding yourself.

stevepa 12-31-2005 01:39 PM

Re: Results (with a little LC if permissable)
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

When DO you trust that voice in your head?

[/ QUOTE ]

When it tells me to push KK in this spot.

P.S. No offense, but you did not make a good read. How in the world can you put that range on Villian? Unless you've played 100's of hands with him and the only time he raises to 2.5x BB in is with exactly this hand range, you're kidding yourself.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I showed in my other post, even if he has that ridiculously tight range (AA-QQ, AK or even just AA-QQ), pushing is still good.

Steve


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