NL 27/ TD question
 

this situation came up durring a nl27 game, but the question is still useful for triple draw. it was allin before the draw. 1st player takes 3. and now i need to decide. draw 1 to an 8 or stay with an A. i decided to stay.

i know that a J is a favorite to a 1 card draw. but the question is what is the worst hand u can have that is a favorite to a 2 card draw? 3 cards draw?

Re: NL 27/ TD question
 

[ QUOTE ]
this situation came up durring a nl27 game, but the question is still useful for triple draw. it was allin before the draw. 1st player takes 3. and now i need to decide. draw 1 to an 8 or stay with an A. i decided to stay.

i know that a J is a favorite to a 1 card draw. but the question is what is the worst hand u can have that is a favorite to a 2 card draw? 3 cards draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's what my tool says about drawing 3 to 72AAA:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
7 5 4 3 2 0.00394696 0.00394696
7 6 4 3 2 0.00394696 0.00789393
7 6 5 3 2 0.00394696 0.0118409
7 6 5 4 2 0.00394696 0.0157879
8 7 4 3 2 0.00394696 0.0197348
8 7 5 3 2 0.00394696 0.0236818
8 7 5 4 2 0.00394696 0.0276287
8 7 6 3 2 0.00394696 0.0315757
8 7 6 4 2 0.00394696 0.0355227
8 7 6 5 2 0.00394696 0.0394696
9 7 4 3 2 0.00394696 0.0434166
9 7 5 3 2 0.00394696 0.0473636
9 7 5 4 2 0.00394696 0.0513105
976xx 0.0118409 0.0631514
98xxx 0.0157879 0.0789393
T-high 0.0592044 0.138144
J-high 0.0828862 0.22103
Q-high 0.110515 0.331545
K-high 0.142091 0.473636
A-high 0.0444033 0.518039
pair of deuces 0.140611 0.658649
...
</pre><hr />

So, a rough A is probably a slight dog, but K-high is a 53% favorite. (Actually, in this case if you have an A your opponent cannot possibly get an A--- removing the fourth A puts him at a K or better 50.5% of the time.)

Drawing two to 723AA:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
7 5 4 3 2 0.0148011 0.0148011
7 6 4 3 2 0.0148011 0.0296022
7 6 5 3 2 0.0148011 0.0444033
8 7 4 3 2 0.0148011 0.0592044
8 7 5 3 2 0.0148011 0.0740056
8 7 6 3 2 0.0148011 0.0888067
9 7 4 3 2 0.0148011 0.103608
9 7 5 3 2 0.0148011 0.118409
976xx 0.0148011 0.13321
98xxx 0.0148011 0.148011
T-high 0.0740056 0.222017
J-high 0.0888067 0.310823
Q-high 0.103608 0.414431
K-high 0.118409 0.53284
A-high 0.066605 0.599445
pair of deuces 0.105458 0.704903
...
</pre><hr />

Here you need Q-high. Similar results for drawing to 234AA.

However, just because standing pat makes you a favorite does not mean it's the most +EV choice...

Re: NL 27/ TD question
 

more numbers:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1131009
pokenum -mc 500000 -l27 3d 2h / ks kh kd - 8s 7h 5d 3c / ah
5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
3d 2h 161576 32.32 338325 67.67 99 0.02 0.323
8s 3c 5d 7h 338325 67.67 161576 32.32 99 0.02 0.677

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1131012
pokenum -l27 3d 2h / ks kh kd - 8s 7h 5d 3c ah
5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 68880 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
3d 2h 29154 42.33 39726 57.67 0 0.00 0.423
8s 3c 5d Ah 7h 39726 57.67 29154 42.33 0 0.00 0.577

Mark: giving villain all aces has a HUGE impact on the results, twodimes is saying about a 10% swing.

Anyways, you should be a favorite over a draw, but you really need to draw yourself

Re: NL 27/ TD question
 

[ QUOTE ]
this situation came up durring a nl27 game, but the question is still useful for triple draw. it was allin before the draw. 1st player takes 3. and now i need to decide. draw 1 to an 8 or stay with an A. i decided to stay.

i know that a J is a favorite to a 1 card draw. but the question is what is the worst hand u can have that is a favorite to a 2 card draw? 3 cards draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

i want to know what game you're in where someone gets all their money in pre-draw and then draws 3 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: NL 27/ TD question
 

[ QUOTE ]

Mark: giving villain all aces has a HUGE impact on the results, twodimes is saying about a 10% swing.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I'm not surprised. Taking three of anything out of the deck is going to affect that rank. I should upgrade my tool to explore a variety of holdings (like 27 + three random high cards.)

What is the highest card villian should keep here and draw two instead? J, T, or 9? Or none?

Re: NL 27/ TD question
 

If hero is drawing to 8753, a 9. If hero is pat, he should keep any card up through a K, i think.

Re: NL 27/ TD question
 

[ QUOTE ]
i want to know what game you're in where someone gets all their money in pre-draw and then draws 3 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah, it was just 3 friends filling some time buy playing a quick freeze out. and mr 3draw is still a beginner.