Tourney hand
 

Playing some 33r for fun where top goes to atlantis.

I have 35k in chips, blinds 400-800 with an ante I forgot how much.

I raise to 2.1k UTG with 85o. MP cold calls with 29k behind. Button moves all in for just around 3.2k. SB with 45k calls I (without the option to reraise) call, MP calls.

I think like just less than 15k in pot. flop 677. SB checks, I check, MP checks.

Turn 7. Everyone checks.

River 6. Checked to me and I push.

-Jason

Re: Tourney hand
 

meh its fine I guess.... its pretty obvious that SB and MP dont have overpairs here. The risk reward is a little high there though, you could end up getting nothing anyway if Button actually has 88+ despite pulling it off.

Re: Tourney hand
 

you do realize that the majority of players who play in these tourneys are GOD AWFUL. I would expect to see 1010 or A high call way more than enough to make this bad news, and against this field the raise preflop is pretty damn crappy.

Re: Tourney hand
 

it cant be the norm for people to call off their stack with the board when its somewhat likely 14k is going to the guy all in preflop...

-Jason

Re: Tourney hand
 

How often do they have a hand that isnt the board here?

Re: Tourney hand
 

Why is the preflop raise crappy? They had been giving me their blinds without much resistance, until this hand...

-Jason

Re: Tourney hand
 

id say ~20% off the top of my head

Re: Tourney hand
 

Risk is 35K, reward is 3.2K. Does 88+ exist here 8% of the time? It is close.

Re: Tourney hand
 

no but its much much more common than you think, for somebody to have 88+. Reall my diatribe is more directed at the preflop play here. The river is meh, I don't hate it, I don't love it, but I think preflop is clearly wrong.

Re: Tourney hand
 

If thats the case fine, I've found in these thats rarely the case though.

Re: Tourney hand
 

OK this is a little math problem.

You're risking 30k to win at most 7500, but the all in fellow probably has you beat a little bit (20% or so) of the time, so let's say if everyone folds your equity is 6000. If you check assume MP checks and your equity is like 3000.

If you get called by air its basically a push (though you win a few chips if only one guy calls with air). We can almost throw these cases out, but he has to fold air often enough for you to make up the 30k you lose the few times you're beat. Since you're risking 30k to win 3k, he has to fold air 10 times as often as he has a better hand. For example, he has a hand 5% of the time but folds air 80% of the time, then it's profitable. But if he has a hand like 10% of the time, then no matter how often they fold air it's no good.

I personally think you run into a wussily played overpair like 15% of the time. And I think air folds like 80% of the time. The bottom line is that I think you run into a hand too often, but that's the grey area thats up for discussion.

Everett