2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anything?
 

Does anyone know if the Patriots can get the 3 seed in the AFC if they win out? It is possible for them to be 11-5 and Cinci to be 11-5. Also Pitt will either be 11-5 or 10-6. Who has the inside track for the 3 seed?

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

i glanced in the paper today and read the pats can get the #3. i dont know the specifics though.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

Pats gets the #3 seed w/ 2 wins and a Cincy loss.

interesting question is, would the Patriots rather be #4 and play Jax and potentially Indy, or be #3 and play Pittsburgh then potentially Denver.

given how Pittsburgh is playing, I think I'd rather have the quasi bye vs Jax, then have to win 1 or 2 very tough games.

as the #3, they will need to beat 3 good teams to make the SB

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

If New England wins 2 & Cincy losses next week, New England is the #3 seed since they'd have the better Coference record.

Pittsburgh can finish no better than 6th with a win a Chiefs loss or a Chargers win. The rest of the AFC is set.

I haven't looked at the NFC scenarios, it's a lot messier past the top 2.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

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Pats gets the #3 seed w/ 2 wins and a Cincy loss.

interesting question is, would the Patriots rather be #4 and play Jax and potentially Indy, or be #3 and play Pittsburgh then potentially Denver.

given how Pittsburgh is playing, I think I'd rather have the quasi bye vs Jax, then have to win 1 or 2 very tough games.

as the #3, they will need to beat 3 good teams to make the SB

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Quasi-bye? I think they'd win the game as well but everyone is treating the Jaguars as a terrible team that the Pats would have no problems with. This is just not the case.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

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Pats gets the #3 seed w/ 2 wins and a Cincy loss.

interesting question is, would the Patriots rather be #4 and play Jax and potentially Indy, or be #3 and play Pittsburgh then potentially Denver.

given how Pittsburgh is playing, I think I'd rather have the quasi bye vs Jax, then have to win 1 or 2 very tough games.

as the #3, they will need to beat 3 good teams to make the SB

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Quasi-bye? I think they'd win the game as well but everyone is treating the Jaguars as a terrible team that the Pats would have no problems with. This is just not the case.

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Jags will easily be the worst AFC playoff team. Given that the Pats will have to win 3 games, the easiest playoff route involves the Jags.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

If I were a Patriots fan, I'd want no part of the Colts until absolutely necessary. They own Pittsburgh and would get them at home. Pitt-Denver is far superior to Jax-Indy IMO.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

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If I were a Patriots fan, I'd want no part of the Colts until absolutely necessary. They own Pittsburgh and would get them at home. Pitt-Denver is far superior to Jax-Indy IMO.

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Yes, Pitt-Denver is far superior to Jax Indy. However, I'm assuming that any path to the SB involves the Colts.

So, I think Pitt-Denver-Indy is a worse path than Jax-Indy-Denver/Cincy/Pitt. Obviously, being #3 means you might not have to face the Colts (unlikely) and a better chance of hosting a championship game (unlikely)

I said this in an another thread, but this is the deepest AFC field I remember in a long time.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

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If I were a Patriots fan, I'd want no part of the Colts until absolutely necessary. They own Pittsburgh and would get them at home. Pitt-Denver is far superior to Jax-Indy IMO.

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Yes, Pitt-Denver is far superior to Jax Indy. However, I'm assuming that any path to the SB involves the Colts.

So, I think Pitt-Denver-Indy is a worse path than Jax-Indy-Denver/Cincy/Pitt. Obviously, being #3 means you might not have to face the Colts (unlikely) and a better chance of hosting a championship game (unlikely)

I said this in an another thread, but this is the deepest AFC field I remember in a long time.

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Indy losing their first game and enabling the Pats to not only avoid the Colts, but get home field in the AFC Championship game is such a huge advantage, that it only needs to happen IMO a small % of the time to prefer that route. Say it's Indy vs. Cinci in round 2. The Colts would be....what?....11 point favorites? That's like 20% range chance of the Bengals winning. That's HUGE from the Patriots standpoint IMO.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

I suppose one could run a quick scenario analysis based on expected spreads and the corresponding moneylines. I'm too lazy to run the EV equations, but it could be interesting.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

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Pats gets the #3 seed w/ 2 wins and a Cincy loss.

interesting question is, would the Patriots rather be #4 and play Jax and potentially Indy, or be #3 and play Pittsburgh then potentially Denver.

given how Pittsburgh is playing, I think I'd rather have the quasi bye vs Jax, then have to win 1 or 2 very tough games.

as the #3, they will need to beat 3 good teams to make the SB

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Quasi-bye? I think they'd win the game as well but everyone is treating the Jaguars as a terrible team that the Pats would have no problems with. This is just not the case.

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Jags will easily be the worst AFC playoff team. Given that the Pats will have to win 3 games, the easiest playoff route involves the Jags.

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Yes, I know. That wasn't my point.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

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I suppose one could run a quick scenario analysis based on expected spreads and the corresponding moneylines. I'm too lazy to run the EV equations, but it could be interesting.

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ok Clark, I bit. I did 2 scenarios, based on some really rough guesswork on expected spreads, and the corresponding implied chance of victory for each team. I've never done this before, so critiques appreciated. This is going to be long, so go get a beer.

in scenario one (Pats as #4 seeds)

I made them a 4.5 to 6.5 favorite over Jax, which would make them winners 68% of the time. I then made them 8 to 9 point dogs at Indy. They would have a 21% chance of winning this game, but they only make it to Indy 68% of the time. So, they will advance to the championship game 14% of the time.

As to their final opponent, for simplicity sake (and probably not too far off from reality) I made Pitt/Cincy bascially 50/50, and Denver vs winner of Pitt/Cincy a pick em as well. So, the Pats would have a 50% chance of playing Denver, and a 25% chance of playing Pitt or Cincy. I made the Pats a 1-2 point dog at Denver (50% chance of winning), a 2.5 - 4 point favorite over Pitt (61% chance of winning), and a pick em at Cinci (50%). The weighted averages of these % of victories, when weighed against the % chance they actually play these teams (50%*50%)+(61%*25%)+(50%*25%) = 53%. But since there is only a 14% chance they play in this game, the Pats overall chance of making the SB is (53%*14%) = 8%

On to scenario 2: [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I have the Pats as small favs against the Steelers, and about 50/50 at the Broncos. So, a 31% chance of advancing to the AFC championship. I approximated that the Pats would have an 80% chance of facing the Colts, a 15% chance of facing the Cinci, and a 5% chance of facing the Jags. I estimated the Pats would beat the Colts 21% of the time, the Jags 68% of the time, and Cinci 61% of the time, leaving a weighted average of advancement % of 30%. 30% times the 31% chance that they make it to this game gives them a 9% chance (compared to 8% in scenario one).

so.....I give the slight edge to Scenario 2 (Pats #3), although it's very close, and it really depends on the assumptions you make.

feel free to critique, as I'm not sure this is all correct.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

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Pats gets the #3 seed w/ 2 wins and a Cincy loss.

interesting question is, would the Patriots rather be #4 and play Jax and potentially Indy, or be #3 and play Pittsburgh then potentially Denver.

given how Pittsburgh is playing, I think I'd rather have the quasi bye vs Jax, then have to win 1 or 2 very tough games.

as the #3, they will need to beat 3 good teams to make the SB

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Quasi-bye? I think they'd win the game as well but everyone is treating the Jaguars as a terrible team that the Pats would have no problems with. This is just not the case.

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Jags will easily be the worst AFC playoff team. Given that the Pats will have to win 3 games, the easiest playoff route involves the Jags.

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The Jags could be the worst team in the AFC playoffs, but they're still far from a bye. They played the Colts twice and gave them tougher games than New England or Pittsburgh, and arguably Cincy too. Anyone taking them lightly is asking for trouble.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

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Pats gets the #3 seed w/ 2 wins and a Cincy loss.

interesting question is, would the Patriots rather be #4 and play Jax and potentially Indy, or be #3 and play Pittsburgh then potentially Denver.

given how Pittsburgh is playing, I think I'd rather have the quasi bye vs Jax, then have to win 1 or 2 very tough games.

as the #3, they will need to beat 3 good teams to make the SB

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Quasi-bye? I think they'd win the game as well but everyone is treating the Jaguars as a terrible team that the Pats would have no problems with. This is just not the case.

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Jags will easily be the worst AFC playoff team. Given that the Pats will have to win 3 games, the easiest playoff route involves the Jags.

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The Jags could be the worst team in the AFC playoffs, but they're still far from a bye. They played the Colts twice and gave them tougher games than New England or Pittsburgh, and arguably Cincy too. Anyone taking them lightly is asking for trouble.

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ok, maybe I shouldn't have said quasi-bye. however, if they're not the worst afc playoff team, then who is?

also, Jax has historically played Indy tough, and we all know that both the Pats and Steelers are playing MUCH better than when either team played the Colts, so you can't just compare the teams this way.

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If I were a Patriots fan, I'd want no part of the Colts until absolutely necessary. They own Pittsburgh and would get them at home. Pitt-Denver is far superior to Jax-Indy IMO.

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I can't speak for everyone, but as a Patriots fan, I *WANT* to play the Colts. It's going to Denver that I want no part of. I don't think beating the Colts in Indy would be that much more difficult than beating the Broncos in Denver (I'm in no way saying that either feat is easy or even probable though.)

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anything?
 

If they are playing for an injury to an important player, they just got it.

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If they are playing for an injury to an important player, they just got it.

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who?

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who?

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Tedy Bruschi tweaked an ankle or knee. Had to help him off and he couldn't put any weight on it. They just said he is out for the game.

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who?

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Tedy Bruschi tweaked an ankle or knee. Had to help him off and he couldn't put any weight on it. They just said he is out for the game.

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I don't believe it. Bruschi would saw off the bad leg and sew on a replacement if necessary. I call BS.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

No, Bruschi's hurt. Belichick says his hamstring tightened up which probably means they already gave Tedy his last rites.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

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No, Bruschi's hurt. Belichick says his hamstring tightened up which probably means they already gave Tedy his last rites.

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this looks like a gigantic loss for the Pats. single most important player on the D; he was a giant reason why the defense went from sucking to being very good.

this makes me sad [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

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If I were a Patriots fan, I'd want no part of the Colts until absolutely necessary. They own Pittsburgh and would get them at home. Pitt-Denver is far superior to Jax-Indy IMO.

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Yes, Pitt-Denver is far superior to Jax Indy. However, I'm assuming that any path to the SB involves the Colts.

So, I think Pitt-Denver-Indy is a worse path than Jax-Indy-Denver/Cincy/Pitt. Obviously, being #3 means you might not have to face the Colts (unlikely) and a better chance of hosting a championship game (unlikely)

I said this in an another thread, but this is the deepest AFC field I remember in a long time.

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Indy losing their first game and enabling the Pats to not only avoid the Colts, but get home field in the AFC Championship game is such a huge advantage, that it only needs to happen IMO a small % of the time to prefer that route. Say it's Indy vs. Cinci in round 2. The Colts would be....what?....11 point favorites? That's like 20% range chance of the Bengals winning. That's HUGE from the Patriots standpoint IMO.

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one huge factor which people don't realize/are discounting pretty heavily:

If the Pats are the #4 seed (and play Jax), that means a red-hot Pittsburgh team plays at Cinci. If Pittsburgh wins, then Pittsburgh goes to Indy for round 2 - not the Pats.

so, the #4 seed doesn't nec. mean Jax/Indy. it could very well be Jax/Denver.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

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I said this in an another thread, but this is the deepest AFC field I remember in a long time.

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I firmly believe that every single team in the AFC playoff picture would have the number 1 seed in the NFC, if they played in that conference all year.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

I think Pats are overrated, and are gleaning a lot of hype from playing a weak AFC East, and general Patriot-love fervor. Without Bruschi, they could be in trouble. Still, they are the Pats in the playoffs.

Chiefs and Chargers both deserve at least #2 or #3 seeds in the NFC.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

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I said this in an another thread, but this is the deepest AFC field I remember in a long time.

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I firmly believe that every single team in the AFC playoff picture would have the number 1 seed in the NFC, if they played in that conference all year.

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not if you transplant them with Philly(or any other NFC east team) and leave Seattle untouched

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

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If I were a Patriots fan, I'd want no part of the Colts until absolutely necessary. They own Pittsburgh and would get them at home. Pitt-Denver is far superior to Jax-Indy IMO.

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Yes, not to mention from a revenue point of view (although with the massive popularity of this team I doubt the front office is pushing it). Bellichick will do his best to win out convincingly with minimal risk vs. Miami, knowing home field is great and staying hot is important.

NT

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No, Bruschi's hurt. Belichick says his hamstring tightened up which probably means they already gave Tedy his last rites.

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this looks like a gigantic loss for the Pats. single most important player on the D; he was a giant reason why the defense went from sucking to being very good.

this makes me sad [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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I think a certain all-pro end may have had more to do with it (they came back to full strength around the same time). I'd rather be without Bruschi than Seymour.

NT

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

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I said this in an another thread, but this is the deepest AFC field I remember in a long time.

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I firmly believe that every single team in the AFC playoff picture would have the number 1 seed in the NFC, if they played in that conference all year.

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not if you transplant them with Philly(or any other NFC east team) and leave Seattle untouched

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If you're suggesting the Giants/Redskins would have a better record than the Patriots, I'm pretty sure you're wrong. The only division the Pats would have a problem against is the NFC West and only because I think Seattle's offense might give them some trouble. Who else though in the NFC would be able to exploit the Patriots secondary? The Giants? Yeah, because Eli has proven himself as a solid QB this year.

The Patriots lost 5 games this year. 3 of them came against teams with high-powered offenses who can throw the ball down the field. (Colts, Chargers, Broncos) The other two games were, in my opinion, flukes. And when I say fluke, I mean the Patriots did not play to their ability, and lost the game, rather than they were out...talented (yes, i said outtalented). The only team in the NFC who really matches up well against the Pats are the Seahawks. If the Patriots play the Panthers/Giants/Redskins/Bears 10 times each, I think you'd find they'd win 60-65% of those games.

Re: 2006 NFL Play-Off Scenarios...Are the Patriots playing for anythin
 

He's saying if you put the Patriots in the same division with the Giants, Eagles, and Redskins, (Dallas has an impossibly hard schedule) the Patriots don't get the #1 seed in the NFC.

The Seahawks only lost 2 games all year. If you replace the Eagles with a team from the AFC, maybe the Seahawks lose 3 games.

After beating Seattle @home, you still have to go 13-3 against the Giants twice, the Redskins twice, the Eagles (when they were good) once, Kansas City, Denver, @Carolina, @San Diego.

Only the Colts/Broncos would be good bets for home-field there.

Plus, the Seahawks have been relatively healthy all year. If the Patriots struggle with injuries in the NFC East like they did this year, they're going to have a hard time just getting in. As tough as the AFC is, the AFC East is terrible, and the Patriots didn't win their division, they were defaulted it.

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He's saying if you put the Patriots in the same division with the Giants, Eagles, and Redskins, (Dallas has an impossibly hard schedule) the Patriots don't get the #1 seed in the NFC.

The Seahawks only lost 2 games all year. If you replace the Eagles with a team from the AFC, maybe the Seahawks lose 3 games.

After beating Seattle @home, you still have to go 13-3 against the Giants twice, the Redskins twice, the Eagles (when they were good) once, Kansas City, Denver, @Carolina, @San Diego.

Only the Colts/Broncos would be good bets for home-field there.

Plus, the Seahawks have been relatively healthy all year. If the Patriots struggle with injuries in the NFC East like they did this year, they're going to have a hard time just getting in. As tough as the AFC is, the AFC East is terrible, and the Patriots didn't win their division, they were defaulted it.

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Thanks for clearing that up. Makes tons of sense and I agree.