Two Plus Two Older Archives - 15/30 Flush... I hate folding for one more bet...

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Garland

12-26-2005 09:17 PM

15/30 Flush... I hate folding for one more bet...

Great loose 15/30 game. The main villain is the reason to be in the game. He probably plays 70% of his hands and is going broke fast. He raises pre-flop with his made hands (pairs, AK and such), but limps with the rest. He also has the monstrous misfortune to be two seats to my right [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. Villain is aggressive and tricky.

Can I possibly be good here 1 in 11.5 times?

Garland

Paradise Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Garland is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 calls, Garland calls, CO calls, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets, Garland raises, CO folds, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.5 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 checks, Garland bets, MP1 raises, Garland 3-bets, MP1 calls.

River: (10.5 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets, Garland ????

AceHigh

12-26-2005 09:43 PM

Re: 15/30 Flush... I hate folding for one more bet...

"Villain is aggressive and tricky."

I guess that means you have to call.

Alex/Mugaaz

12-26-2005 10:14 PM

Re: 15/30 Flush... I hate folding for one more bet...

[ QUOTE ]
"Villain is aggressive and tricky."

I guess that means you have to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with this. I think folding is best here, it's lame, but if I'm playing well I'd fold this river.

If the villain is aggressive and tricky he's also probably at least fairly good. He knows you will check behind here most of the time so he's betting to insure you don't. He also knows almost everyone pays him off here and that people will crying call this all the time. Come on, this guy isn't trying some 18th level thinking river bluff.

me454555

12-27-2005 02:18 PM

Re: 15/30 Flush... I hate folding for one more bet...

What hand do you think he has that plays this way? He's boated up or has your flush beat. I think you can make this fold correctly on the river

Garland

12-27-2005 09:33 PM

Results and thoughts...

I folded. I felt I'm going to be shown a 9 every single time. Just wanted to make sure a crying call wasn't warranted.

Thanks for the comments.

Garland

goofball

12-27-2005 09:48 PM

Re: Results and thoughts...

I don't think I make that fold.

AceHigh

12-27-2005 11:05 PM

Re: 15/30 Flush... I hate folding for one more bet...

Against typical players it's a fold, but I'm guessing a tricky/aggressive opponent might play a bare Ace
[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] this way.

elindauer

12-28-2005 06:20 AM

Re: 15/30 Flush... I hate folding for one more bet...

Seems pretty simple. He's playing 70% of his hands, and he's aggressive and tricky. Call.

There are a million ways for him to reach the river without a 9 or 5 and bet. He could have any single heart and missed his "draw". He could have tons of made hands weaker than yours and is betting because he intends to call. He could have some other nonsensical thought that people that play 70% of their hands tend to have.

His hand range is wide, he's aggressive, and you are getting good odds. Don't fold.

-eric

Garland

12-28-2005 06:38 AM

Re: 15/30 Flush... I hate folding for one more bet...

[ QUOTE ]
and he's aggressive and tricky.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi elindauer,

I guess I should have redefined "tricky". He won't check-raise without some sort of made hand. In this case, I had to call the check-raise as I felt it was just as likely he's doing it on two pair as the straight.

Paradise Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Garland is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Garland raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (12.66 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, CO calls, Garland raises, BB folds, UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (9.33 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP2 checks, CO checks, Garland bets, MP2 calls, CO folds.

River: (11.33 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 checks, Garland bets, MP2 raises, Garland calls.

Final Pot: 15.33 BB

Results below:
MP2 has 7s Js (straight, king high).
Garland has Qs Qc (three of a kind, queens).
Outcome: MP2 wins 15.33 BB

That kind of tricky. He will chase all sorts of draws and bet on the flop once, but shut down afterwards.

Thanks for your thoughts.

Garland

Nightwish

12-28-2005 07:25 PM

Re: 15/30 Flush... I hate folding for one more bet...

Yeah, there's no way I'd ever fold this hand to this guy. You'd have to pry the cards out of my cold dead fingers.

flawless_victory

12-28-2005 07:50 PM

Re: 15/30 Flush... I hate folding for one more bet...

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
and he's aggressive and tricky.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi elindauer,

I guess I should have redefined "tricky". He won't check-raise without some sort of made hand. In this case, I had to call the check-raise as I felt it was just as likely he's doing it on two pair as the straight.

Paradise Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Garland is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Garland raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (12.66 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, CO calls, Garland raises, BB folds, UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (9.33 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP2 checks, CO checks, Garland bets, MP2 calls, CO folds.

River: (11.33 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 checks, Garland bets, MP2 raises, Garland calls.

Final Pot: 15.33 BB

Results below:
MP2 has 7s Js (straight, king high).
Garland has Qs Qc (three of a kind, queens).
Outcome: MP2 wins 15.33 BB

That kind of tricky. He will chase all sorts of draws and bet on the flop once, but shut down afterwards.

Thanks for your thoughts.

Garland

[/ QUOTE ]i dont mind your call here, but this one WAAAAYYYYYY WAYY closer than the first hand... first hand fold is an incredibly horrible laydown... jesus. how do you fold there? whhhyyyyy?
second hand looks like you prob coulda folded to the river CR, but meh... paying off isnt too bad.

Garland

12-28-2005 07:57 PM

Re: 15/30 Flush... I hate folding for one more bet...

Hi there Nightwish,

Long time no see. What in the world does the villain have on the river that doesn't beat me now? He would have raised preflop with any big pair, so he doesn't have that. He rams and jams with a made flush on the flop, except perhaps the nuts. If not he probably jams the turn with a made flush. He does overplay his hands at times. For example, he raises and calls a 3-bet with unimproved AA on the river vs a set that filled.

Paradise Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Garland is SB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO raises, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10.66 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, CO calls, BB raises, UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP2 3-bets, CO calls, BB calls.

Turn: (9.83 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 bets, CO calls, BB calls.

River: (12.83 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 bets, CO raises, BB folds, MP2 3-bets, CO calls.

Final Pot: 18.83 BB

Results below:
MP2 has 8h 8d (full house, eights full of sevens).
CO has Ac Ah (two pair, aces and sevens).
Outcome: MP2 wins 18.83 BB.

But most of the time he simply gets married to hands and calls down, especially on scary boards such as this.

It's pretty transparent he has a 9 and thought he out-turned me. He has to be nuts to bet with a flush into a potential full house on the chance I have a 9.

So my line of thinking, 95% of the time he shows me a 9. And I suppose he could have a flush probably 5% of the time, due to the play and the improbability due to my own two cards...not enough odds to call the river (1 in 11.5) and even if he does have a flush, some of the times he has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and I still lose. A bet saved is a bet earned here, I think.

Garland

Nightwish

12-28-2005 10:00 PM

Re: 15/30 Flush... I hate folding for one more bet...

[ QUOTE ]
Hi there Nightwish,

Long time no see.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, no kidding!

[ QUOTE ]
What in the world does the villain have on the river that doesn't beat me now? He would have raised preflop with any big pair, so he doesn't have that.

[/ QUOTE ]
You don't think he could have a single A, the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]? That would be entirely consistent with a crazy tricky LAG's play (as the other hand you posted indicated), including the bet on the river where he figures he'll call a single bet anyway so he might as well bet out himself (which, incidentally, is also typical LAG mentality).

Garland

12-28-2005 10:46 PM

Re: 15/30 Flush... I hate folding for one more bet...

[ QUOTE ]
You don't think he could have a single A, the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]?

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely not. He's loose and aggressive, and overaggressive, but he chases, chases and chases with draws preferring to take a cheap stab on the flop with draws and mellow out on the big bet streets. He's not putting in big turn bet raises or check-raises without some semblance of the goods.

Garland

Dazarath

12-29-2005 12:44 AM

Re: 15/30 Flush... I hate folding for one more bet...

You don't think it's at all possible that the bet was due to the river card trashing his hand? I've seen many poor players do that before. Things like slowplaying a baby flush, and then betting out when the turn puts the 4th spade on board. Or slowplaying a set on a 3-straight board and then raising when the turn puts the 4th straight card out. What does the villain's stop-n-go mean, and why would he do that as opposed to check/raising if he has a 9?

Garland

12-29-2005 07:17 AM

Re: 15/30 Flush... I hate folding for one more bet...

[ QUOTE ]
You don't think it's at all possible that the bet was due to the river card trashing his hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's most likely he sees the boat, and he knows I see the boat and insuring he gets one big bet for sucking out, which I would not oblige him.

[ QUOTE ]
What does the villain's stop-n-go mean, and why would he do that as opposed to check/raising if he has a 9?

[/ QUOTE ]

The guy is weird, but not totally stupid (well, I guess that's relative). The stop-and-go means he's forbidding me from checking behind, which was exactly what I was going to do. He overplays his hands, but at the very least I know he has a hand from playing hundreds of hands with him. I'm almost willing to bet he turns over something like A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Garland

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