Humorous Probability
 

Amidst my few years of playing now, I have never got a single Royal Flush. My friends and I jest about this sometimes...especially when one of them hits one (again).

One friend in particular must have at least 20 of them in the same time frame as I've been playing and over nearly the same number of hands.

What is the probability of getting a Royal Flush?
Over how many hands could one expect to get one?

Just for chits and giggles...we've already ascertained that I am the most unlucky SOB on the planet.
Some people run bad, some people run "AviD".


EDIT: Sorry as mentioned by a follow-up poster, I forgot to mention the game. It is Hold Em'.

Re: Humorous Probability
 

Might help if we knew what game you were playing. 5 card draw, Pai Gow, Blackjack, Hold 'Em?

Edit: To save time, as I assume it's hold 'em:

[4 * C(47,2)]/C(52,7) = 4324/133784560 = .003% or 30939 to 1.

For 5 card draw:

4/C(52,5) = 4/2598960 = .000154% or 649739 to 1

To have a greater than 50% chance of getting a royal in hold 'em, you'd need to play:

1 - BINOMDIST(21446,21446,1-4324/133784560,FALSE) comes out to just over 50% so, your odds become slightly favorable at 21446 hands to have a royal.

Re: Humorous Probability
 

Royal flushes are over-rated. I folded my last one pre-flop. (K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and the other four cards were on the board.) [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Humorous Probability
 

Everytime I dont complete out of the small blind getting more than 6:1 with 92o or some garbage, I flop quads

Re: Humorous Probability
 

[ QUOTE ]
Everytime I dont complete out of the small blind getting more than 6:1 with 92o or some garbage, I flop quads

[/ QUOTE ]
Man, everytime you have a garbage hand you hit a 1/9800 shot? Play more...a lot more.

Re: Humorous Probability
 

you think so too??

I swear at least ten times in the past month Ill have some junk in the SB limped around, Ill think about all the quads Ive missed out on, have borderline odds to complete with any two, decide to fold, and sure enough BAM

222

Re: Humorous Probability
 

[ QUOTE ]
Everytime I dont complete out of the small blind getting more than 6:1 with 92o or some garbage, I flop quads

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure what this has to do with the probability of hitting a Royal Flush, but...yeah sometimes that happens. Good fold?