Two Plus Two Older Archives (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/index.php)
-   Probability (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/forumdisplay.php?f=23)
-   -   fundamental mistake on Turn? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=405406)

 shutupndeal 12-26-2005 03:15 PM

fundamental mistake on Turn?

I was just thinking, when we figure the odds for playing on past the flop its pretty easy in that all the bets have been the same "unit" . What about on the Turn? In other words lets say a simple \$1-\$2 game you need to have roughly \$4 dollars in the pot to continue play with 2 overcards to the board because the odds with 6 outs is 24% right?
But on the turn the bet or unit doubles so now with the odds of hitting reduced to 14% how much would we need to continue in the pot? about \$28?

I hope this is making sense, Im so bad with writing what I am thinking!

I am trying to create a simple by the dollar odds table for math geniuses like me. Has anyone ever seen one online?

Thanx People!

 Allinlife 12-26-2005 05:30 PM

Re: fundamental mistake on Turn?

its called effective odds

so if you think it's likely that your opponent will betout on turn after you call the flop, you should just fold preflop

 shutupndeal 12-26-2005 08:03 PM

Re: fundamental mistake on Turn?

Would I be correct in that you would need the \$28 though? (13 to 1 doubled)
I could be fuzzy I had to take sleeping pills last night because my hours are off after staying up all night Christmas Eve and Im not a math genius for sure.

 shutupndeal 12-27-2005 12:29 AM

Re: fundamental mistake on Turn?

No, told ya my math stinks...now Im thinking , Ok if its 14% = 7.whatever to 1, then you need the pot to be \$14, would that be right? 14% = 7 and so double the norm would equal \$14?
open ended str draw = 8 outs. So 8/46 = .1739 + 8/45 .1777
Thats the normal 2 card if Im right, yes?

Ok but we only want the 17.77 because it is the "turn" bet BUT our UNITS changed, its no longer a \$1 bet its a \$2 bet.......so we just forget that junk about the unit changing or what? That is where my problem is, OR does it have to be say a 17.77 + 17.77 = \$35 pot??

 shutupndeal 12-27-2005 12:31 AM

Re: fundamental mistake on Turn?

and BTW.....Im grabbin my "Theory of Poker" and going to bed, I hope it mentions this, I never rememeber reading about this anywhere.

 MegumiAmano 12-27-2005 03:08 AM

Re: fundamental mistake on Turn?

You're thinking about this way too hard. It's just bets. It doesn't matter what the actual dollar amount is. However, you must always know what the pot size is in terms of the current round's bet size.

If you have 8 outs (4.75:1), then you need ~5 bets in the pot to call. In a 1/2 game, that would be \$5 on the flop and \$10 on the turn. But it's still just 5 bets to your 1 bet, no matter what street you're on.

SSHE covers this very well. If it's confusing, then you might want to try the DIPO method from King Yao's book. I don't personally use it, but it's pretty easy and covers all streets.

 shutupndeal 12-27-2005 09:02 AM

Re: fundamental mistake on Turn?

thank you Megumi
I am totally stuck on stupid. I was making a chart wen this all came about. Can you give me the dollar amount then PLEASE! What would you need to be in the pot to make the call? I know it will all sink in but I am blinded because I want the answer so bad! How much needs to be in that pot to make calling a 14% shot on the turn in a 1-2 game?

I am greatful for ALL the info but nobody is answering the question! : ) How much?

I had to edit this.. : )
I understand there is more than 1 round of betting left, I just wanted to know the figure for certain.

 Mike Haven 12-27-2005 10:26 AM

Re: fundamental mistake on Turn?

sorry; i'm too lazy to create your charts for you, but this is how you could do it:

for \$2-\$4 fixed limit:

a. 6 outs on turn

you have seen 6 cards, so 46 unseen cards

odds to catch are 40 to 6 or 6.67 to 1

you need 6.67 x \$4 = \$26.68 say \$27 in pot to call \$4 bet

b. 7 outs on turn

you have seen 6 cards, so 46 unseen cards

odds to catch are 39 to 7 or 5.57 to 1

you need 5.57 x \$4 = \$22.28 say \$22 in pot to call \$4 bet

c. 8 outs on turn

you have seen 6 cards, so 46 unseen cards

odds to catch are 38 to 8 or 4.75 to 1

you need 4.75 x \$4 = \$19.00 in pot to call \$4 bet

d. 3 outs on flop

you have seen 5 cards, so 47 unseen cards

odds to catch are 42 to 5 or 8.4 to 1

you need 8.4 x \$2 = \$16.80 say \$17 in pot to call \$2 bet

e. etc

* * *

<u>Charts:</u>

\$2-\$4

FLOP

outs:pot

3 : \$17
4 :
5 :
etc

TURN:

3 :
4 :
5 :
6 : \$27
7 : \$22
8 : \$19
9 :
10:
etc

* * *

maybe you'll post them here when you write them up? thanks

 shutupndeal 12-27-2005 02:48 PM

Re: fundamental mistake on Turn?

thank you Mike!! Thank You, Thank You and Thank You!!
I also appreciate ALL of the people who answered and it made me learn again. dragged out TTOP again and found a few more things I had forgot all about so this is hopefully going to pay off in spades! Thank you All!

Oh and yes I will post them here for you just to check on for us all! It should really help the newer players I think to see it in a dollar amount.

 All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:11 AM.