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-   -   Probability of one OR more person getting dealt hands XX-YY (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=293629)

 vqchuang 07-15-2005 04:37 PM

Probability of one OR more person getting dealt hands XX-YY

Hi I am working on a chart and I was wondering how to calculate the following question.

If I have JJ there are 19 out of 1225 hands that call my all in if they could see my cards. Therefore, headsup, there is a 19/1225 chance that someone calls me.

If there are 2 people behind me, what are the odds that one OR both people have one of those 19 hands? Remember, while there are 6 possible combinations of AA, if one person has AA, the other person can only get Aces of a different suit.

Could someone give me a general equation for:
X=number of hands that call me (it would be soemthing out of 1225)
Y = number of players still to act behind me
Z = probability of someone (one or more) getting a hand that calls me.

-vqchuang

 cyberer 07-15-2005 11:15 PM

Re: Probability of one OR more person getting dealt hands XX-YY

this doesn't work because you're assuming that people will only call you with those hands. I know many players who would call an all in with pocket 8's or jack-10 suited. People don't know what your cards are and heads up will be more likely to call you with worse hands. You can't assume that people are only going to call with hands that can beat you preflop.

 oneeye13 07-15-2005 11:39 PM

Re: Probability of one OR more person getting dealt hands XX-YY

"if they could see my cards"

 irchans 07-16-2005 10:02 AM

Re: Probability of one OR more person getting dealt hands XX-YY

vqchuang,

The correct answer is somewhat complicated but here is an approximation:

if

X=number of hands that call me (it would be something out of 1225)
Y=number of players still to act behind me
Z=probability of someone (one or more) getting a hand that calls me.

Z ~= (1- (1- X/1225)^Y).

 BettyBoopAA 07-16-2005 08:53 PM

Re: Probability of one OR more person getting dealt hands XX-YY

with the blinds and antes, it is correct to call with AK and AQ even though it's behind JJ.

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