TPTK vs. TAG
 

Reads: Villian has not been at the table all that long, but he seems TAG preflop and somewhat LAG postflop. He was 15/7/1.5. (I'm surprised his AF is that low). At one point he flopped a baby flush in a raised pot and raised on the flop, so he isn't in love with slowplaying. I haven't seen him showdown a big bluff, but considering his play I felt that he was definitely capable of making some moves.

Stars 100NL 6-max, 5 handed.

Villian has $130 on the button, Hero covers.

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero raises to $4, only villian calls.

Flop (2 players, $9): Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero bets $9, villian calls.

Turn (2 players, $27): 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero checks, vilian bets $15, Hero calls.

River (2 players, $57): 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero checks, villian bets $40, Hero calls.

Final Pot: $137

When I saw his biggish river bet I thought I should have led the river, but I figured I made my bed by playing it this way and now I had to lie in it.

Thoughts?

Re: TPTK vs. TAG
 

What range of hands do you think villan is capable of betting here? KQ,AQ,and maybe 10s or 9s.

Another alternate line you could take is betting the turn/block the river. c/c-ing the river isn't bad either, if you think villan will bluff on a missed draw.

Re: TPTK vs. TAG
 

Villian would definitely value bet a queen (who woulden't?!), but since he might not even call preflop with QJs it can't be all that likely he has a queen. KQ and AQ are probably it.

Does he value bet 9's T's or J's? I don't know. He definitely bets the turn, but I don't know about the river. A lot of people call here with JJ. Thats a pretty frisky bet on the river with a pair of nines.

There aren't many draws, and two gutshots got there, so I don't know what draw he would be bluffing. If he is bluffing it's probably air.

EDIT: Let me add that the reason I played the hand this way is because I felt the only hand I was going to get value out of was KQ, and that I could get more by letting him bluff. I thought that was pretty obvious.

Re: TPTK vs. TAG
 

and if heas 88 or 44 giving him a set on the flop?

Re: TPTK vs. TAG
 

Thats obviously another possability.

"but I figured I made my bed by playing it this way and now I had to lie in it."

In other words, if he has a set, I have to pay him.