Re: The Trend
 

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But this type of trading is more of an artform than a science. There is no magic formula.

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Just magic beans.

Re: The Trend
 

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But this type of trading is more of an artform than a science.

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This sounds a lot like "I don't really know what I'm doing and there's a good chance I'm running hot" to me.

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There is no magic formula.

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There's no magic formula for playing limi hold'em either, but it's certainly more science than art. Basically, this sentence is useless and irrelevant unless you actually think someone here needed you to confirm that you were no actually trading based on magic.

Re: The Trend
 

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There's no magic formula for playing limi hold'em either, but it's certainly more science than art

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What about no limit? Certain areas of trading are certainly scientific and math based. Chart reading and technical analysis are not. They are all feel and experience and trying to create some sort of black box is an excersize in futility.

I've stood in trading pits or have been staring into a trading screen for close to 20 years and if there was a mathematical solution the business I am in wouldn't exist.

Re: The Trend
 

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What is the actual criteria that separates uptrend from non-uptrend?


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It depends? What is your timeframe?


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My timeframe? I'm asking you guys what a trend is. I'm trying to make as few suppositions as possible so as not to prejudice the discussion.

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If you want to test things (which it seems) I find moving averages as the best trend identifiers. Use a crossover or a longer term MA (ie 200 bars). If you are above it,it's an uptrend and below it a downtrend.


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Ok, there's an operational definition of a trend: if the current price is above a 200 bar average it's an uptrend.

Ok, that's actually a fairly "good" definition in the sense that I'm looking for.

Now onto part two of the question: How does one "follow" a trend once it can be identified?

eastbay

Re: The Trend
 

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But this type of trading is more of an artform than a science.

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This sounds a lot like "I don't really know what I'm doing and there's a good chance I'm running hot" to me.

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There is no magic formula.

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There's no magic formula for playing limi hold'em either, but it's certainly more science than art. Basically, this sentence is useless and irrelevant unless you actually think someone here needed you to confirm that you were no actually trading based on magic.

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No, there is no "magic" formula to limit hold 'em but there is most certainly a way to quantify an unbeatable strategy. It just happens to be extremely complex, however, in principle it can be computed, and in practice very good approximations to it can be computed.

However, that's neither here nor there. We're talking about trading now, and of course there is no "magic." I am simply asking what people are talking about when they speak of "trends" and "following the trend" to see if there is any merit in the idea.

eastbay

Re: The Trend
 

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There's no magic formula for playing limi hold'em either, but it's certainly more science than art

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What about no limit? Certain areas of trading are certainly scientific and math based. Chart reading and technical analysis are not. They are all feel and experience and trying to create some sort of black box is an excersize in futility.

I've stood in trading pits or have been staring into a trading screen for close to 20 years and if there was a mathematical solution the business I am in wouldn't exist.

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I have news for you:

What you describe as "feel" is not messages from Jesus, or use of The Force, or the result of rain dances or voodoo dolls or virgin sacrifices to the trading gods. They are the result of processing information that you have available to you. YOU are a "black box."

All we're talking about here is what information you're using, and how you're using it, when you "follow a trend." If you can't describe it, I submit that you don't actually know what you're doing, and aren't saying anything meaningful when you advocate "following a trend." Either it means something or it doesn't. If it doesn't, let's please shut up about it. If it does, let's get on with the business of describing it.

eastbay

Re: The Trend
 

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I've stood in trading pits or have been staring into a trading screen for close to 20 years and if there was a mathematical solution the business I am in wouldn't exist.

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Define "solution." Do you think there are precisely zero profitable trading ventures using automated algorithms?

eastbay

Re: The Trend
 

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I've stood in trading pits or have been staring into a trading screen for close to 20 years and if there was a mathematical solution the business I am in wouldn't exist.

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HEY BASEBALL, LOOK UP JOHN HENRY, OWNER OF THE RED SOX, HE HAS USED MATH TO AMASS HIS FORTUNE IN OPTIONS CONTRACTS

Re: The Trend
 

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If you can't describe it, I submit that you don't actually know what you're doing,

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I did describe (how I use it) in my first reply in this thread. Maybe you should reread that?

Re: The Trend
 

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If you can't describe it, I submit that you don't actually know what you're doing,

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I did describe (how I use it) in my first reply in this thread. Maybe you should reread that?

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I read it. "Other things" is not testable. Do you believe your trend following is valid without these "other things"?

eastbay