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-   -   figuring odds when both parties can improve (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=407529)

 mw999 12-30-2005 01:22 AM

figuring odds when both parties can improve

Here goes. I have AKo, famous player has Ad,Jd, flop is A,d,d,. don't remember exactly what the two diamonds were but flop did not threaten a straight. I have looked up the poker calculator odds and it looks like I was about 54/53% to 47% favorite. This does not seem accurate to me. He has 12 outs to make his flush or another jack. In the event he catches a jack I can still come back if I catch a non diamond K. most of the runs I have seen only seem to count his outs and do not counter my possibilities of drawing a K, I basically have two outs in the event another J hits the board. Do the poker calculators figure full house, straights, quads etc?. It seems like my two good Ks (about 8% chance) should be subtracted from famous players 35% (flush) and 12% (extra jack). Bottom line, seems like this hand should be stronger than 53% favorite. btw, my hand held up. We both got all in after the flop, later looked it up, suprised I was not a bigger favorite. mw999

 timex 12-30-2005 01:35 AM

Re: figuring odds when both parties can improve

So there are 45 cards left in the deck, you will not hit a diamond (36/45) * ( 35/44) times =0.636, so he will win 36.4% of the time with the flush. Of the remaining times, he will hit a jack 1- (42/45) * (41/44) = 13.0%, of the times he hits a jack, you will hit a king (3/44) times, so he wins 13.0% * 41/44 + 36.4% = 48.5%, less the times when you hit the full house should make it about 47%

 mw999 12-30-2005 01:51 AM

Re: figuring odds when both parties can improve

What about the two good kings? re:8% for me? isn't that deducted from his 13% chance to hit a jack? giving him about 36% plus 5% or 41% chance.

 mw999 12-30-2005 01:55 AM

Re: figuring odds when both parties can improve

oops, meant to write that I have 2/44 for the two good kings, or about 4.5%, to be deducted from his 13%,

 ohnonotthat 12-30-2005 02:20 AM

Re: figuring odds when both parties can improve

www.twodimes.net

If you're asking how to figure it out for yourself . . .

PM me on Monday if you still haven't discovered/been told the correct method.

I am a proud member of the "TFTA" (Two Fingered Typists of America) and the explanation for the shortcut is lengthy but I will do it if nobody else steps to the plate.

 AaronBrown 12-30-2005 12:39 PM

Re: figuring odds when both parties can improve

The good poker calculators figure everything. Here is a quick approximation, similar to ohnonotthat and timex's accounts.

AK beats AJ with Axx on the board 85% of the time, ignoring flushes. So 36% of the time he gets a flush and wins almost all of them. The other 64% of the time, he wins 15% by getting more Jacks than you get Kings. 15%*64% = 9.6%; so that's about 36%+10% = 46% to him. He actually has about 48% due to straights and other possibilities.

I think what's misleading you is thinking you're a huge favorite if he doesn't get the flush, and the odds are almost 2:1 against him getting the flush. Both of those things are true, but they still add up to an almost even hand. Also, he had a good flop, you were about 70% before the flop.

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