No substitute for luck sometimes...
 

I made a sick catch on the river here. Does anyone play this differently? Is calling 3rd lame? If I don't catch A, Q, or 10[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], or K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I'm obviously folding 4th. Seat 2 had been raising my bringin often, and Seat 8 seemed to be pretty loose. Is the 3-bet on 5th bad? When he caps it, I do figure it's most likely he has a set of K's... but I can't totally eliminate K's up with 8's, or rolled 8's to start. So when he catches the 8 on 6th, my only hope is that he has 8's full and I can fill up on the river. Do I let this one go on 6th? I made the absolutely sick catch... the pot was so big (with the loose 3rd caller) that I figured I had to check/call it down on 6th and fold unimproved on 7th.

7 Card Stud High ($1/$2), Ante $0.10, Bring-In $0.50 (hand converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls___calls

4th Street - (3.70 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___calls

5th Street - (4.85 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises___raises
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets___raises___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls___calls___calls

6th Street - (16.85 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks___calls

River - (19.85 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___raises $1 to $5 and is all-in
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets___raises
Seat 8: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___raises___calls

Total pot: (28.35 BB)

Re: No substitute for luck sometimes...
 

I wouldn't call 3rd but after that I think you played it fine.

Re: No substitute for luck sometimes...
 

He's getting 1 to 6 on 3rd, and he definetly has more equity than that. As for fourth, it looks like a good time to check raise to me.

Re: No substitute for luck sometimes...
 

[ QUOTE ]
He's getting 1 to 6 on 3rd

[/ QUOTE ]
What is that, and how did you get it? The only way I can see coming up with a figure like that is by proposing that there is some card he can catch on 4th street that will win him a $6 pot. Is there a card that will win him the pot on 4th street? Are there even two perfect cards that will win him the pot by 5th street?

[ QUOTE ]
and he definetly has more equity than that


[/ QUOTE ]
What is his equity? The way I see it, he has a poor starting hand, and he called a raise, and in the long run he will lose lots of money playing hands like that because the payoff when he wins will be smaller than all the money he loses playing hands like that--even though experience is currently teaching the opposite lesson.

Sheesh, what a monster hand!

Re: No substitute for luck sometimes...
 

6 to 1 on third
antes .80; bring in .50; call .50; raise 1.00 = 2.80 in pot

it costs him .50 to call the raise vs 2.80 already in the pot which is close to 6 to 1.

Equity of an Axx 2 flush runs about .2 and higher against most pairs

Re: No substitute for luck sometimes...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I figured I had to check/call it down on 6th and fold unimproved on 7th.


[/ QUOTE ]

Never, ever ever ever ever ever ever fold the river here unimproved. Also, raise 6th.

Re: No substitute for luck sometimes...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I figured I had to check/call it down on 6th and fold unimproved on 7th.


[/ QUOTE ]

Never, ever ever ever ever ever ever fold the river here unimproved. Also, raise 6th.

[/ QUOTE ]

dude, looks to me like his opponent has kings full on 6th, no?

Re: No substitute for luck sometimes...
 

Actually you are right, looking back I think Kings full is more likely on 6th then aces/kings up. I still stand by my other advice about never folding this river though, the pot is far too big to lay down trips.

Beer, If you fill up would you raise 7th given your read?

Re: No substitute for luck sometimes...
 

Easy call on 3rd in this wacky structure.

I wouldn't fold trip queens on the river, but I definitely would not raise 6th either. I think he has kings full at that point.

Re: No substitute for luck sometimes...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Actually you are right, looking back I think Kings full is more likely on 6th then aces/kings up. I still stand by my other advice about never folding this river though, the pot is far too big to lay down trips.

Beer, If you fill up would you raise 7th given your read?

[/ QUOTE ]

Beta, I would not fold the river.(I did not mean to imply that I would. )

I probably would raise the river if I filled, but only because i have queens full and wouldn't be able to respect myself if I didn't and had the winning hand [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]