Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

So, pinnaclesports.com has what i consider to be a very reasonable wager being offered for the WSOP ME. I've reviewed many sportsbooks to see if there were any value bets to be made, and this is the only one i've come up with. id be interested in seeing what you kids think.

The way it works is you pick either Group 1 or Group 2. In each group you get 10 assigned players. The winning wager will be decided depending on which group of 10 players makes more money in the WSOP ME.

Group 1:
Phil Hellmuth
Dan Harrington
John Juanda
Chris Ferguson
Johnny Chan
Barry Greenstein
John Phan
Tuan Le
Michael Mizrachi
Antonio Esfandiari

Group 2:
Daniel Negreanu
Howard Lederer
Ted Forrest
Erick Lindgren
Layne Flack
Erik Siedel
Doyle Brunson
Scotty Nguyen
Mike Matusow
Scott Fischman

When thinking about the list, i think one side should clearly be favored over the other. however, they're offering each side at -105 (meaning, bet 105$ to win 100$). Then, i sent the list to my friend who felt whole-heartedly that the other side would win.

So, what do you think and why?

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

I'd pick Group 1

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd pick Group 1

[/ QUOTE ]

In fact, I'm about to ...

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd pick Group 1

[/ QUOTE ]

As would I. Wonder why Phil Ivey is missing from these lists??

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

Bodog is offering odds as well on the ME, but I believe you can actually choose a player. I believe the lowest odds I saw were like 180-1.

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd pick Group 1

[/ QUOTE ]

In fact, I'm about to ...

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, im huge on group 1 as well. interestingly, group 1 dropped to -102 (which means money came in on group 2 in the past few minutes).

this might be easier money than party sngs.

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

I actually think it's pretty close.

If I had to pick, I'd pick group 2.

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I actually think it's pretty close.

If I had to pick, I'd pick group 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree completely - it's very close, but in a pinch, I'd have to take group 2.

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

[ QUOTE ]
As would I. Wonder why Phil Ivey is missing from these lists??

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Group 1:
Phil Hellmuth
Dan Harrington
John Juanda
Chris Ferguson
Johnny Chan
Barry Greenstein
John Phan
Tuan Le
Michael Mizrachi
Antonio Esfandiari

Group 2:
Daniel Negreanu
Howard Lederer
Ted Forrest
Erick Lindgren
Layne Flack
Erik Siedel
Doyle Brunson
Scotty Nguyen
Mike Matusow
Scott Fischman

Group 3: Phil Ivey

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

While I agree I think group one is stronger this is by no means "easy money" due to the escalating pay scale. Group one could outperform group 2 but one deep finish is likely to decide the whole thing. That being said, -105 is very low juice, so it's probably a good bet, it's just tough to be a great bet.

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

I don't think it's too lopsided, but I'd favor Group 1.

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

They left out Ivey...

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

KingMedicine, which side did you think was the clear favorite?

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

wow they think that hellmuth and DN are more likely to make the final 9 than dan harrington

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

[ QUOTE ]
They left out Ivey...

[/ QUOTE ]

they 'left out' a ton of people. i think the book's intention was to present a balanced list, and the names are meaningless to that degree.

as far as the OP's question, i think it is a great balance and would have set that as even money as well. though i still say that this was the point of the offer.

i think wager's designed like this are the answer to the lost revenue from field wagers (which are history. you will never see a decent money field bet offered again, and most won't offer any field action at all)

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

[ QUOTE ]
KingMedicine, which side did you think was the clear favorite?

[/ QUOTE ]

i thought group 1 was clearly the best.

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

I'd go with group 2. Group 1 has too much variance IMO. There are probably 3 or 4 players who could very conceivably run up 200k stacks in the first day, or bust by level 3.

Overall, group 2 seems to have a lot more of a slow and steady kind of feel. I would be willing to bet a small amount straight up that group 2 has more ITM finishes than group 1, and if I was betting on this, I'd lean towards picking group 2 as having a higher overall cash.

Also, a quick trivia question:

When was the last time Johnny Chan moneyed in a 10k buyin tournament (according to Hendon Mob)?

<font color="white">1992</font>

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

If you're looking for an angle play...bodog is offering heads up last longer bets, and they clearly state all bets are action. We called them and e-mailed them to confirm that this means tough luck if one of the guys doesn't play at all...well, two matchups include Dutch Boyd, who mentions in his blog that he doesn't have a seat or the money to get in...Fischman was -140 and Gank -120 as of yesterday against him...all they have to do is show up...

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

Here's some stats from the past (year-placed) in the money in the main event:

Group 1:
Dan Harrington 87-6th, 95-1st, 96-17th, 03-3rd, 04-4th
Chris Ferguson 00-1st, 04-26th
John Phan 04-31st
Phil Hellmuth 88-33rd, 89-1st, 01-5th, 03-27th
Barry Greenstein 00-31st, 03-49th
Johnny Chan 87-1st, 88-1st, 89-2nd
Tuan Le (no money in main event, two WPT 1st's in last 7 months)
Michael Mizrachi (no money in main event, 6 in the money this year in other WSOP events)
John Juanda (no money in main event)
Antonio Esfandiari (no money in main event)

Group 2:
Doyle Brunson 76-1st, 77-1st, 80-2nd, 82-4th, 83-3rd, 04-53rd
Mike Matusow 01-6th, 04-87th
Scotty Nguyen 98-1st, 03-18th
Howard Lederer 87-5th, 03-19th
Daniel Negreanu 01-11th
Erik Seidel 88-2nd, 99-4th
Ted Forrest (no money in main event)
Erick Lindgren (no money in main event)
Layne Flack (no money in main event)
Scott Fischman (no money in main event)

What if neither team finishes in the money? I'd be suprised if two people on the same team make it in the money.

I'll root for group 1.

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

Chan and BG both out. My "told-you-so" shirt is fitting just right so far.

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

Group 1:
Phil Hellmuth
Dan Harrington
John Juanda
John Phan
Tuan Le
Michael Mizrachi
Antonio Esfandiari
<font color="red">Chris Ferguson **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Johnny Chan **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Barry Greenstein **Out**</font>


Group 2:
Daniel Negreanu
Howard Lederer
Erick Lindgren
Layne Flack
Doyle Brunson
Mike Matusow
Scotty Nguyen **he started on day 1, but no mention of his chip stack at the end of the day and no mention of him busting out**
<font color="red">Ted Forrest **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Scott Fischman **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Erik Siedel **Out**</font>

Of everyone that's left, I think Layne Flack is the only one that started on day one.

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

Group 1:
Phil Hellmuth
Dan Harrington
John Juanda
John Phan
Tuan Le
Michael Mizrachi
Antonio Esfandiari
<font color="red">Chris Ferguson **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Johnny Chan **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Barry Greenstein **Out**</font>


Group 2:
<font color="red">Daniel Negreanu **Out**</font>
Howard Lederer
Erick Lindgren
Layne Flack
Doyle Brunson
Mike Matusow
<font color="red">Scotty Nguyen **Out** (I'm 90% sure)</font>
<font color="red">Ted Forrest **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Scott Fischman **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Erik Siedel **Out**</font>


And my "told-you-so" shirt seems to be a lot less cool now. However, Rocks and Rings is pretty close to out.

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

Group 1:
Phil Hellmuth
Dan Harrington
John Juanda
John Phan
Tuan Le
Michael Mizrachi
<font color="red">Antonio Esfandiari **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Chris Ferguson **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Johnny Chan **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Barry Greenstein **Out**</font>

Group 2:
Howard Lederer
Doyle Brunson
Mike Matusow
Layne Flack (61k at the end of day 1a)
<font color="red">Scotty Nguyen **Out** (90% sure)</font>
<font color="red">Erick Lindgren **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Daniel Negreanu **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Ted Forrest **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Scott Fischman **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Erik Siedel **Out**</font>

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

Green are those who believe have survived days 1a and 1b so far.

Group 1:
<font color="red">Phil Hellmuth **Out**</font>
<font color="green">Dan Harrington</font>
<font color="green">John Juanda</font>
John Phan
Tuan Le
<font color="green">Michael Mizrachi</font>
<font color="red">Antonio Esfandiari **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Chris Ferguson **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Johnny Chan **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Barry Greenstein **Out**</font>

Group 2:
Howard Lederer
Doyle Brunson
Mike Matusow
<font color="green">Layne Flack (61k at the end of day 1a)</font>
<font color="red">Scotty Nguyen **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Erick Lindgren **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Daniel Negreanu **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Ted Forrest **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Scott Fischman **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Erik Siedel **Out**</font>

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

Group 1:
John Juanda
John Phan
Tuan Le
<font color="green">Dan Harrington (about 25k at the end of day 1b)</font>
<font color="green">Michael Mizrachi (about 24k at the end of day 1b)</font>
<font color="red">Phil Hellmuth **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Antonio Esfandiari **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Chris Ferguson **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Johnny Chan **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Barry Greenstein **Out**</font>

Group 2:
Howard Lederer
Doyle Brunson
Mike Matusow
<font color="green">Layne Flack (about 61k at the end of day 1a)</font>
<font color="red">Scotty Nguyen **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Erick Lindgren **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Daniel Negreanu **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Ted Forrest **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Scott Fischman **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Erik Siedel **Out**</font>

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

Group 1:
Tuan Le ???
<font color="green">John Juanda (about 41k at the end of day 1c)</font>
<font color="green">Dan Harrington (about 25k at the end of day 1b)</font>
<font color="green">Michael Mizrachi (about 24k at the end of day 1b)</font>
<font color="red">John Phan **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Phil Hellmuth **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Antonio Esfandiari **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Chris Ferguson **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Johnny Chan **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Barry Greenstein **Out**</font>

Group 2:
<font color="green">Howard Lederer (about 15k at the end of day 1c)</font>
<font color="green">Mike Matusow (about 26k at the end of day 1c)</font>
<font color="green">Layne Flack (about 61k at the end of day 1a)</font>
<font color="red">Doyle Brunson **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Scotty Nguyen **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Erick Lindgren **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Daniel Negreanu **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Ted Forrest **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Scott Fischman **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Erik Siedel **Out**</font>

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

The good players are not doing very well, are they?
Makes you wonder how good they really are and how much luck is a factor in NL tournament.

NL tournaments is so much about luck if you play decent poker. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

[ QUOTE ]

NL tournaments is so much about luck if you play decent poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong.

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

FYI... According to another thread, Tuan Le busted out the fist day.

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

[ QUOTE ]


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NL tournaments is so much about luck if you play decent poker.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Right.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

Group 1:
<font color="green">John Juanda (about 127k at the end of his 2nd day)</font>
<font color="green">Michael Mizrachi (about 294k at the end of his 2nd day)</font>
<font color="red">Dan Harrington **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Tuan Le **Out**</font>
<font color="red">John Phan **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Phil Hellmuth **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Antonio Esfandiari **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Chris Ferguson **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Johnny Chan **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Barry Greenstein **Out**</font>

Group 2:
<font color="green">Howard Lederer (about 156k at the end of his 2nd day)</font>
<font color="green">Mike Matusow (about 120k at the end of his 2nd day)</font>
<font color="green">Layne Flack (about 188k at the end of his 2nd day)</font>
<font color="red">Doyle Brunson **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Scotty Nguyen **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Erick Lindgren **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Daniel Negreanu **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Ted Forrest **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Scott Fischman **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Erik Siedel **Out**</font>

If the remaning players can make it past 9 other players tomorrow, they will be in the money.

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Group 1:
<font color="green">John Juanda (about 127k at the end of his 2nd day)</font>
<font color="green">Michael Mizrachi (about 294k at the end of his 2nd day)</font>
<font color="red">Dan Harrington **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Tuan Le **Out**</font>
<font color="red">John Phan **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Phil Hellmuth **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Antonio Esfandiari **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Chris Ferguson **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Johnny Chan **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Barry Greenstein **Out**</font>

Group 2:
<font color="green">Howard Lederer (about 156k at the end of his 2nd day)</font>
<font color="green">Mike Matusow (about 120k at the end of his 2nd day)</font>
<font color="green">Layne Flack (about 188k at the end of his 2nd day)</font>
<font color="red">Doyle Brunson **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Scotty Nguyen **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Erick Lindgren **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Daniel Negreanu **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Ted Forrest **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Scott Fischman **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Erik Siedel **Out**</font>

If the remaning players can make it past 9 other players tomorrow, they will be in the money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, this ended up being a very even wager! Even now, it would be close, with two extra days worth of information. Obviously, the big edge goes to group 2, but it's still somewhat close when you consider the chip counts.

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

Group 1:
<font color="green">John Juanda</font>
<font color="blue">Michael Mizrachi **Out** made $33,197</font>
<font color="red">Dan Harrington **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Tuan Le **Out**</font>
<font color="red">John Phan **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Phil Hellmuth **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Antonio Esfandiari **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Chris Ferguson **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Johnny Chan **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Barry Greenstein **Out**</font>

Group 2:
<font color="green">Howard Lederer</font>
<font color="green">Mike Matusow</font>
<font color="blue">Layne Flack **Out** made $39,075</font>
<font color="red">Doyle Brunson **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Scotty Nguyen **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Erick Lindgren **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Daniel Negreanu **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Ted Forrest **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Scott Fischman **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Erik Siedel **Out**</font>

Well...group 2 is in the lead, and it looks like the odds are on their side unless Juanda can go deep.

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

Yeah, 2 to 1 is definitely favoring Group 2 right now.

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Group 1:
<font color="green">John Juanda(about 354k at the end of his 3rd day) </font>
<font color="blue">Michael Mizrachi **Out** made $33,197</font>
<font color="red">Dan Harrington **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Tuan Le **Out**</font>
<font color="red">John Phan **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Phil Hellmuth **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Antonio Esfandiari **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Chris Ferguson **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Johnny Chan **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Barry Greenstein **Out**</font>

Group 2:
<font color="green">Howard Lederer(about 496.5k at the end of his 3rd day)</font>
<font color="green">Mike Matusow(about 454k at the end of his 3rd day)</font>
<font color="blue">Layne Flack **Out** made $39,075</font>
<font color="red">Doyle Brunson **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Scotty Nguyen **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Erick Lindgren **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Daniel Negreanu **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Ted Forrest **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Scott Fischman **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Erik Siedel **Out**</font>

Well...group 2 is in the lead, and it looks like the odds are on their side unless Juanda can go deep.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, it looks like group 2 takes it, barring a Juanda miracle.

Hats off to Juanda, Matusow and Lederer. Quite an accomplishment making it this far.

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

Group 1:
<font color="green">John Juanda</font>
<font color="blue">Michael Mizrachi **Out** made $33,197</font>
<font color="red">Dan Harrington **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Tuan Le **Out**</font>
<font color="red">John Phan **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Phil Hellmuth **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Antonio Esfandiari **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Chris Ferguson **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Johnny Chan **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Barry Greenstein **Out**</font>

Group 2:
<font color="green">Mike Matusow</font>
<font color="blue">Howard Lederer **Out** made $54,965</font>
<font color="blue">Layne Flack **Out** made $39,075</font>
<font color="red">Doyle Brunson **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Scotty Nguyen **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Erick Lindgren **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Daniel Negreanu **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Ted Forrest **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Scott Fischman **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Erik Siedel **Out**</font>

Juanda knocked Lederer out and has about $1,000,000 in chips, and Matusow has about $500,000. It's a two horse race now, and neither team is out of it yet.

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Group 1:
<font color="green">John Juanda</font>
<font color="blue">Michael Mizrachi **Out** made $33,197</font>
<font color="red">Dan Harrington **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Tuan Le **Out**</font>
<font color="red">John Phan **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Phil Hellmuth **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Antonio Esfandiari **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Chris Ferguson **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Johnny Chan **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Barry Greenstein **Out**</font>

Group 2:
<font color="green">Mike Matusow</font>
<font color="blue">Howard Lederer **Out** made $54,965</font>
<font color="blue">Layne Flack **Out** made $39,075</font>
<font color="red">Doyle Brunson **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Scotty Nguyen **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Erick Lindgren **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Daniel Negreanu **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Ted Forrest **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Scott Fischman **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Erik Siedel **Out**</font>

Juanda knocked Lederer out and has about $1,000,000 in chips, and Matusow has about $500,000. It's a two horse race now, and neither team is out of it yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

3.Mike Matusow $1,450,000
5.John Juanda $1,200,000

It is exactly a bet between Matusow and Juanda, now, because they are both likely to hit money levels where the group two +$60,804 edge will be almost negligible. A lot of poker yet to be played, but these guys are both very experienced/capable players with very advantageous chip positions. I think it is quite reasonable to predict at least one of them will crack the top 15.

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

Group 1:
<font color="blue">John Juanda **Out** made $274,090</font>
<font color="blue">Michael Mizrachi **Out** made $33,197</font>
<font color="red">Dan Harrington **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Tuan Le **Out**</font>
<font color="red">John Phan **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Phil Hellmuth **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Antonio Esfandiari **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Chris Ferguson **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Johnny Chan **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Barry Greenstein **Out**</font>

Group 2:
<font color="green">Mike Matusow</font>
<font color="blue">Howard Lederer **Out** made $54,965</font>
<font color="blue">Layne Flack **Out** made $39,075</font>
<font color="red">Doyle Brunson **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Scotty Nguyen **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Erick Lindgren **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Daniel Negreanu **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Ted Forrest **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Scott Fischman **Out**</font>
<font color="red">Erik Siedel **Out**</font>


Good job group 2!

Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.
 

Ha! Group 2, suckas. You heard it here first. Check the record.