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08-02-2002 06:22 PM

ODDS
 


if i flop a four flush the odds are roughly 2-1

that i will make my flush on either the turn or

the river. if i do not make it on the turn are my

odds still 2-1 on the river.


thank you




08-02-2002 06:33 PM

Re: ODDS
 


If you flop 4 to a flush your odds are 2-1 that you will make your flush on either of the next 2 streets.


This is because you have 9 outs and have 2 streets to make 1 of them.


If you don't make your flush on the turn then you still have those 9 outs but only 1 street to make them on so your odds get cut in half - now you are a 4-1 dog to make your flush.




08-02-2002 09:01 PM

Re: ODDS
 


there are 47 unseen cards, 9 of which are your suit


the odds of you getting your flush on the turn are 38 to 9 = 4.2 to 1 = 100/(4.2 + 1) = 19.23%


or 80.77% that you don't get it


the odds of you getting your flush on the river are 37 to 9 = 4.1 to 1 = 100/(4.1 + 1) = 19.61%


or 80.39% that you don't get it


so 80.39% of the 80.77% you don't catch a flush at all = 64.93%


so 35.07% of the time you do catch a flush


so the odds on catching a flush if you receive two cards are 64.93/35.07 = 1.85 to 1


and with one to come they are 4.1 to 1


but just because you are getting 1.85 to 1 pot odds on the flop is not reason enough to call


do you see why?




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