can i make this call
 

It is early in a multi-table satellite at Foxwoods. We started with 3000 chips and blinds of 25/50. Blinds are now 50/100. I raise to 300 utg with AK. A guy calls behind me. He’s a typical Foxwoods mush who has been complaining about his bad beats. He has 2200 left after the call.

The flop comes down AKT. I check. He bets 200. I check-raise to 600 which he insta-calls. (comments on this street welcome)

The turn is a J, making the board AKT J. I check, and he quickly checks behind me. A thought crosses my mind: Maybe he has AJ for a worse two pair.

The river is a 7. I check. He instantly goes all in for 1600. I will have about 500 left if I call and lose. If I fold, I will have 2100.

Can I make this call?

Re: can i make this call
 

bump

Re: can i make this call
 

Can you make this call? I don't know, can you?
If you can, why not use some of that T1600 on earlier streets to narrow villains range of hands.

Flop check raise to 600, giving villain 400 to 1550 on his money. What information can you gain giving him 4 to 1 on his call?

If villain is 65-75% sure you will check the turn, you are giving him odds to draw to a gutshot. Let alone completing a set.

I'm not against check raising, but on the texture of that flop I'm betting out pot sized to find out where I am in the hand, if you check raise the flop, make it large to find out if your up against a pair/set or a draw

Re: can i make this call
 

you need to be right less than 1/3. if he's a donk, i think there's enough chance he has a horribly played smaller 2 pair and i call.

i would lead the flop. that's the kind of flop that will hit a cold-caller, and you really don't want to give a free acrd. if you do c/r, make it a real c/r. the pot's 750 pre-flop, he makes it 200 and you raise only 400 more? make it more like t900 to go on the c/r. you want the pot big enough that you make a normal size push on the turn.

Re: can i make this call
 

ty for your response schwza, i'd really like some other replies as well before I reveal results.

Re: can i make this call
 

If you decided to c/r then I would have definately made it at least 800 - 900 to go. I think this would have defined you hand much better. If I had gotten the call, might have slowed down a little on the turn and threw out a blocking bet on the river.

I think you could make an argument for leading on the flop. Make about a 1/2 pot bet and another on the turn.

-Gryph