Value bet this river?
 

I didn't realize this was a nl50 table until this hand. No stats or reads. Easy value bet on the end?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

BB ($34.54)
<font color="#C00000">UTG ($47.65)</font>
MP ($134.61)
CO ($191)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($47)</font>
SB ($47.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3.5</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls $3, MP folds.

Flop: ($8.25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7</font>, UTG calls $7.

Turn: ($22.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $7</font>, Hero calls $7.

River: ($36.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $36.25

Re: Value bet this river?
 

I suspect that this is a mandatory value bet on the end. And I admit that this is probably the weakest part of my game right now. I make this check all the time, just like you did.

Re: Value bet this river?
 

If you value bet this you commit to calling a push given stack sizes. Besides that, I don't think many hands you beat from UTG call your value bet. Turn he might be taking a crack with a small PP that didn't hit the flop and expects a fold (after all your AK missed if he thinks like alot of these players [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]). Check is fine IMO.

Re: Value bet this river?
 

Evwerything you just said is why I usually check. But I can't help but feel that I'm missing a huge chunk of my BB/100 by making these checks based on 'no hand you beat can call' reasoning.

Re: Value bet this river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Evwerything you just said is why I usually check. But I can't help but feel that I'm missing a huge chunk of my BB/100 by making these checks based on 'no hand you beat can call' reasoning.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well it really depends on the board and your ability to fold if checkraised given the stack sizes. Here villains most likely holdings are 10x, a pair of 3s or 4s, or pp 55-88. The turn bet looks like it was meant to take down the pot. If he really had a 10 he'd probably lead the river since hero only called rather than raised. Value betting here is determined by how likely you think villain will call with a small pair vs how often you think he will c/r AI.

I'd value bet this much more often if my bet didn't commit me to calling a checkraise since you'll have so little left in a huge pot.

Re: Value bet this river?
 

[ QUOTE ]

I'd value bet this much more often if my bet didn't commit me to calling a checkraise since you'll have so little left in a huge pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good point. It seems that we're risking all of villain's stack when behind, but we only get that first bet when ahead (since he doesn't check/raise with a worst hand).

Re: Value bet this river?
 

I dont see what betting does here. What will he call you with that you have beat? Only thing I can think of is a small-mid pocket pair. None of the draws got there either. If he's an awful player he might look you up with an A4 or A3.

Not to mention any bet commits you to calling a check-raise.

Re: Value bet this river?
 

I think you're ahead most of the time here, but shouldn't be because you won't get called by a worse hand. If he really hit a ten and leads the turn, why wouldn't he bet the river? I think if villian is CR happy, then he would hit it on turn and then push river. In reality, I feel 99 is the most likely hand and he doesn't think you have a ten at the beginning of the turn (or he was just making a stab at the pot since you're most likely to have overcards rather than an overpair).

Anyone disagree?

Re: Value bet this river?
 

Easy value bet, a mid PP or something like JJ or QQ will look you up around 100% of the time here. If he has a ten or 88 make a note he is a donk checkraiser and remember that next time. I bet around 1/3 of the pot on the river, enough that he has to call and hates it.

Re: Value bet this river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
That's a good point. It seems that we're risking all of villain's stack when behind, but we only get that first bet when ahead (since he doesn't check/raise with a worst hand).


[/ QUOTE ]


Good point. In situations like these, I find myself pushing more and more often. You will get called (and win) more often than you would think.
Or, if you're damn sure he won't c/r without beating you, you could bet small (1/3-1/2) and fold to the c/r. If he's not tricky at all its a decent line.

In your particular situation, QQ/JJ are the hands that you want to call, but I'm not sure that he would have those, most would raise preflop with them I would think. His play is consistent with missed clubs, if he would limp a suited connector or something like that utg.
I might check behind here, i don't think he has a calling hand often enough to make it worth it.