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- - 5/10 88 (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=405394)

I haven't played shorthanded in a long time.

The SB here is a fish that I have been following in full games all weekend. Her full stats are 55/.96/.70 and other than a little HU with her last night I haven't seen her play shorthanded yet. Her stats aren't telling. I've seen her raise KQo, limp KK, bet KKJ flops with 9 high, check behind the nuts on the river, etc. Almost every hand she sees the flop with she sees the river with and her wtsd is 48.15. She calls with K high in hopeless spots.

The BB is unknown. From a few orbits at the table he seems tight and passive.

The Button just joined the table. I have mined 10/20 full stats on her where she is playing as a 21.6/10.91/1.60.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: I am MP with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, I raise, 1 fold, Button calls, SB calls, BB 3-bets, I call, Button caps, SB calls, BB calls, I call.

Flop: (16 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, I bet, Button raises, SB calls, BB folds, I call.

Turn: (11 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, I check, Button bets, SB calls, I raise

You must be folding to a 3-bet I guess. And I guess you're b/f'ing rivers? I guess you're putting both of these two on overcards? Actually I'm hoping you can explain. I'm lost.

I like the flop bet because it really looks to me like button has some sort of suited broadway hand and decided to cap after it was apparent the other 2 clowns were comming in. (At least thats how I read it with a cold-call/cap from a pretty tight player). If thats the type of hand button has, then she is going to check through the flop a lot 4-way, I would think.

When the button raises your flop bet, I think you may have to include some bigger pairs in her range that she was trying to get tricky with, but since you have her stats from datamining, she probably doesn't know you are a tight player and might think you are taking a shot at this dry flop and is trying to push the others out of the pot with her overs.

I think given her range, I would like a turn bet more than a c/r since I think there is a good chance of her checking behind with overs and that would suck given the size of the pot. I really don't know though, its a pretty tough hand given the wierd preflop action.

i don't like it. sure SB is a tard, but button likely has you beat and is not going anywhere.

(11:32:08) Dids: I think that the reason to take your flop line is so that you can let go when you're beat.
(11:32:11) Dids: and you like didn't
(11:32:43) Dids: I think the button scares me and there's more hands in his range that beat you and never fold than you beat

Button looks to be at least a decent player. After he Cold Calls/Caps preflop (AA-QQ, AK maybe, some suited connector play maybe), and then raises the flop, I think your very likely in trouble. Suited connectors are out - flop is rainbow and he doesn't cap with 65s. I put him on AA-QQ. If he has JJ your really toast.

I would just bet the turn and fold to a raise. I don't like the checkraise at all unless you think Button is going to make a super laydown of AA-QQ to a represented JJ set, which I don't see happening often enough to make this play +EV if your against a monster pair. It also doesn't help you that SB in still in there with who-knows-what. She will occasionally have a Jack.

Don't like the turn raise. Fold to a 3-bet.

can we put a range on villain here? it just seems confusing that villain would coldcall with a high pair here on the button, so I'm thinking some kind of suited broadway that would want to hit a big flop?

however button continues to attack on the turn, I think a flop raise would be understandable for him if he had something like KQs/KJs, namely to knock out someone like SB in the hand (hopefully) and get the free card on the turn.

But, button's turn action is completely opposite from his flop action, it seems, and he's continuing to fire. I want to say maybe he's got something like AJ/KJ/QJ preferably sooted (would make sense pre), because that's the only hand range that makes sense at this point.

AK can also make sense here if he's in an overaggro mode, but it really feels like it's not worth isolating button because I think AK/66/77 isn't coming up often enough imo.

I just try to get to SD cheap here, not worrying about SB.

[ QUOTE ]
(11:32:08) Dids: I think that the reason to take your flop line is so that you can let go when you're beat.
(11:32:11) Dids: and you like didn't
(11:32:43) Dids: I think the button scares me and there's more hands in his range that beat you and never fold than you beat

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain is the type that can coldcall/cap, than he is most likely also the type that can raise the flop with any two cards when he gets donked.

And Jason, I already told you I loved this hand. I just hate how opportunities for it are so rare. The positions have to be right, the player types have to be right, the board, your hand value. I love it here.

Do you think the button has overcards here the majority of the time? If not I can't see why you'd want to check-raise if he's a half decent hand reader. He should put you on a medium PP here almost always. You raised preflop but didn't cap. You bet-called the flop. Kind of screams medium pair imo, so the only reason to check-raise there is if he can fold overcards or TT/99, both which I doubt will happen enough times to make it profitable. Of course, if you truly believe he has overcards here (I don't know how you could know this by the action so far?) your check-raise has a lot of value.

What am I missing?