Update On My Picks
 

So far those who religiously followed all my picks are doing OK. Recent pick Immersion was 2.60- now 3.30. About two years ago I picked four stocks. CGNX, then about 35 now 27; OPTK, then about 5 now 2.5, Mattel, then 10 now 20, and of course SHFL then about 5 (twice split adjusted) now 18.5. A one dollar investment in each stock brings $5 up to about $8.50.

Re: Update On My Picks
 

I bought only SHFL and Mattel. I think I bought mattel when they got the Harry Potter licences though and didn't see your post on it.


What is your current take on SHFL?

How much is it dependent on the blackjack card machines? A dealer I met claims the customers like the live dealers so much that the machines are not making inroads as fast and may even be receding.


D.

We need reasoning
 

We need elaboration to justify investing in such volatile stocks. It isn't even clear whether an equally-weighted portfolio is a good representation of your advice.


For example, IGT and WMS have closely tracked SHFL over the past two years. If we followed your company specific advice then we might have bought SHFL and shorted IGT to hedge the risk. Both the returns and risk of this strategy would have been low. But if your analysis involved industry growth then we might have reduced portfolio risk by investing in a combination of all 3 firms.


Similarly, you didn't provide reasoning for the other picks, except to say MAT was "obvious". This is useless, just like saying a sophisticated poker play is "obvious". Are you afraid to provide reasoning because the reasoning might only be 90% right?

Re: We need reasoning
 

the 29.5 year / 30 year bond arb was obvious to LTCM and others.

Re: Update On My Picks
 

Small caps are doing well now. Also, the gaming indices are doing well. You got lucky in catching a sector/market cap shift.