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-   -   x post from SS, annoying turn situation (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=406393)

macdaddy991 12-28-2005 05:15 AM

x post from SS, annoying turn situation
 
I posted this in SS, but I thought it would be appropriate to post here. This is a somewhat common situation in hold em and playing it more correctly can definately add +EV to your game.

villan is new to table so for all intents and purposes he is unknown

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP2 posts a blind of $5.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (10.40 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, CO folds, BB calls.

Turn: (6.70 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero?

12-28-2005 05:31 AM

Re: x post from SS, annoying turn situation
 
Call the bet and c/c the river UI. MP2 just called your turn bet, it is unlikely he will 3-bet, he either has a Q or a straight draw. As far as BB goes, hard to say what he has, he could have the T, but also possible that he has a Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], maybe 44s even.

12-28-2005 05:54 AM

Re: x post from SS, annoying turn situation
 
He probably has a T and was slowplaying on the flop. He may also have 44 or be playing a flush draw (presumably with a queen). It looks like hero is probably behind. I can see 2 outs (A), another 2 tainted outs (TT). Maybe he's bluffing or on a draw, but it doesn't seem likely.

With 8.7-to-1 odds I don't think a call is justified. I fold.

12-28-2005 08:25 AM

Re: x post from SS, annoying turn situation
 
River an Ace.

Aaron W. 12-28-2005 12:27 PM

Re: x post from SS, annoying turn situation
 
[ QUOTE ]
I posted this in SS, but I thought it would be appropriate to post here. This is a somewhat common situation in hold em and playing it more correctly can definately add +EV to your game.

villan is new to table so for all intents and purposes he is unknown

[/ QUOTE ]

The default should be to call down because you have an overpair to the unpaired board card. If you had something like 66, folding would be more appropriate.

In a readless situation, calling down isn't significantly +EV, but it's +INFO which you can hopefully exchange for +EV in later hands.

cold_cash 12-28-2005 12:42 PM

Re: x post from SS, annoying turn situation
 
Against all but the most passive of players I think this will be a Queen, a hand like 66, or a club draw with a pair way more often than needed to make a calldown good.

(Especially with the overlay you're already getting and MP2 being dragged along for the ride.)

tassie 12-28-2005 01:16 PM

Re: x post from SS, annoying turn situation
 
3 bet.

If that MP2 calls or BB caps it I am starting to get worried.

cold_cash 12-28-2005 01:18 PM

Re: x post from SS, annoying turn situation
 
[ QUOTE ]
3 bet

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

tassie 12-28-2005 01:25 PM

Re: x post from SS, annoying turn situation
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3 bet

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[/ QUOTE ]

why not? If ya don't mind

milesdyson 12-28-2005 01:26 PM

Re: x post from SS, annoying turn situation
 
yeah i'd much rather fold than 3-bet.

to be honest i am folding this exact hand sometimes, even against a complete unknown. it just depends on my mood.

BatsShadow 12-28-2005 01:39 PM

Re: x post from SS, annoying turn situation
 
grunch:

This seems like a very clear check/call down. There isn't a card that can fall that makes the board any scarier than it already is (maybe a club?), but he can make this same play with a T or a Q.

Mathematically, he's more likely to hold the Q, right? We don't want to get pushed off our hand, so we just call, check/call.

milesdyson 12-28-2005 01:45 PM

Re: x post from SS, annoying turn situation
 
[ QUOTE ]
Mathematically, he's more likely to hold the Q, right?

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah, if he plays all Qx on a QTT4 board the same as he plays all Tx. obviously this isn't the case.

this guy has a ten very often - if calling down is correct it is only very slightly +EV and only because he is an unknown.

12-28-2005 04:32 PM

Re: x post from SS, annoying turn situation
 
Why would he play this way with a queen?

macdaddy991 12-28-2005 04:36 PM

Re: x post from SS, annoying turn situation
 
[ QUOTE ]
Why would he play this way with a queen?

[/ QUOTE ]

If it were that simple, hands like this wouldn't be an issue.

cold_cash 12-28-2005 04:59 PM

Re: x post from SS, annoying turn situation
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3 bet

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[/ QUOTE ]

why not? If ya don't mind

[/ QUOTE ]

Mainly because you're just not winning often enough.

You're getting about 6:1 to showdown assuming MP2 calls the turn raise and you put in one bet on the river.

I think you'll be winnnig often enough to take that price, but you're not winning often enough to put in 3 bets (or more) to get there.

If you did happen to 3-bet the turn and were capped, I would think you would have to fold. If you go call/call you put in the same amount of dough, but you get to turn your cards over and see who wins.

Pedigree 12-28-2005 06:01 PM

Re: x post from SS, annoying turn situation
 
I'd definitely call down against an unknown at my current limits. I'm inclined to believe that at 5/10 this is a T more often than it is in micro-limit. Without much 5/10 experience I'd probably call.

bottomset 12-28-2005 08:20 PM

Re: x post from SS, annoying turn situation
 
protected pot turn c/r's are almost always the goods, especially on turn blanks

I'm pretty sure this is a fold

tassie 12-29-2005 08:32 AM

Re: x post from SS, annoying turn situation
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3 bet

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[/ QUOTE ]

why not? If ya don't mind

[/ QUOTE ]

Mainly because you're just not winning often enough.

You're getting about 6:1 to showdown assuming MP2 calls the turn raise and you put in one bet on the river.

I think you'll be winnnig often enough to take that price, but you're not winning often enough to put in 3 bets (or more) to get there.

If you did happen to 3-bet the turn and were capped, I would think you would have to fold. If you go call/call you put in the same amount of dough, but you get to turn your cards over and see who wins.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks

Aaron W. 12-29-2005 01:05 PM

Re: x post from SS, annoying turn situation
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3 bet

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[/ QUOTE ]

why not? If ya don't mind

[/ QUOTE ]

Mainly because you're just not winning often enough.

You're getting about 6:1 to showdown assuming MP2 calls the turn raise and you put in one bet on the river.

I think you'll be winnnig often enough to take that price, but you're not winning often enough to put in 3 bets (or more) to get there.

If you did happen to 3-bet the turn and were capped, I would think you would have to fold. If you go call/call you put in the same amount of dough, but you get to turn your cards over and see who wins.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's also the scant 5% of the time that you river an ace to pick up a pot that you would have otherwise lost by the 3-bet-fold line. There's something like .5-.7 BB to be picked up there.

Catsailor 12-29-2005 02:43 PM

Re: x post from SS, annoying turn situation
 
Grunch:
I think call turn, Ck/c river UI. Wouldn't bb rr flop with a T? Villians turn Ck/r looks like T or Q4 or 44 or not. Maybe clubs + Q. A call down may just cost 2 bb and you will know what he had. Or catch your As and take it down.

milesdyson 12-29-2005 02:47 PM

Re: x post from SS, annoying turn situation
 
[ QUOTE ]
Q4

[/ QUOTE ]
this move is much too advanced for three pair. and no, players usually never raise the flop with trips here. they should, but they don't.

Buckmulligan 12-29-2005 03:09 PM

Re: x post from SS, annoying turn situation
 
I'm calling down. The wa/wb line keeps mp in the pot too.


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