barfing @ 2k PL
 

villain is pandora00 or something like that, i have no reads on him at all at the time, maybe you guys do.

Party 2k Pot Limit full ring

Pandora limps UTG+1, everyone folds, sb completes, and me(3600) check with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].


flop comes 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB bets out 60, i raise to 240, and Pandora(covers) makes it 720 to go.

whats my plan? if youre calling the flop, whats your turn plan?

Re: barfing @ 2k PL
 

i think calling here sucks, and you are probably at best splitting so im thinking either push or fold.

Re: barfing @ 2k PL
 

He has 3.6k and pand. covers, I would rather call here than push/fold.

Re: barfing @ 2k PL
 

right, didnt notice pandora covers.

Re: barfing @ 2k PL
 

I would fold here..

Re: barfing @ 2k PL
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold here..

[/ QUOTE ]
Why?
Pandora could have limped JJ, but than QQ, KK, and AA would be played similiarly as well.
You can't possibly credit the SB with a better hand yet. All he did was lead for pot.
I dont think you can push this flop and expect to be called by a worse hand unless you overbet push flops with draws. I would call and try to get all in on a good turn.

SB folded n/m
 

.

Re: SB folded n/m
 

is it not safe to say that your opponent is doing this with a strong made hand or a strong draw?

if we can assume this a fold is trivial

Re: barfing @ 2k PL
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would fold here..

[/ QUOTE ]
Why?
Pandora could have limped JJ, but than QQ, KK, and AA would be played similiarly as well.
You can't possibly credit the SB with a better hand yet. All he did was lead for pot.
I dont think you can push this flop and expect to be called by a worse hand unless you overbet push flops with draws. I would call and try to get all in on a good turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

What a noob-like analysis. IMO, the problem is we are either crushed or racing a very strong draw. I think i can find a fold here.

Re: SB folded n/m
 

What range of hands would you put on pandora..

AA, KK QQ, JJ, 7h8h, 66, 55

think of any others that are reasonable?

Re: barfing @ 2k PL
 

ok so everyone seems really concerned with what villian has, but no one is asking the equally important question:
what do you think villian puts you on?
the answer to this question will make your situation much more clearly defined.

so, how have you been playing, what is your table image...what does your raise here signify to the other players.

obviously if you have been playing fast then it is almost impossible to fold...however if you've been playing fairly straightfoward its a much easier fold.

Re: barfing @ 2k PL
 

My main concern is that we might not be racing at all, and that villain can put in this 3rd raise with a holding like Ax[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I still think a fold is probably right.

Re: barfing @ 2k PL
 

Id fold just becuase there are so many draws that this looks like a push or fold situation and pushing this deep with bottom two sucks.

Re: barfing @ 2k PL
 

This looks like a spot where if you don't fold you will be in a hardcore reverse implied odds situation, it looks like a fold to me.

Even if he had air 75% of the time and a set 25% of the time for example, a fold can still be correct (if he bluffs with the right frequencies)

And I think the fact that he might have a draw makes things worse for you

Re: barfing @ 2k PL
 

Since this guy had sat down I believe I had been playing pretty straightforwardly. I had been caught on a few bluffs earlier in the day but I dont think he was at the table (maybe he was though and I just didnt notice for some reason).

Re: barfing @ 2k PL
 

I hate folding, and I would happily toss this.

Re: barfing @ 2k PL
 

The SB folds to Pandora's re-raise I assume?

Re: barfing @ 2k PL
 

[ QUOTE ]
I hate folding, and I would happily toss this.

[/ QUOTE ]
even yeti would fold, this is an easy effing fold.

more information
 

what if i told you he was 26/15/2.1?

also, what if you had seen him play this had (I missed it)?

Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 10 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Hero ($2000)
UTG+1 ($2279)
Pandora ($4530)
MP1 ($2632.50)
MP2 ($1970)
MP3 ($1980)
CO ($2736)
Button ($773.50)
SB ($2698.50)
BB ($2246)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $10.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Pandora raises to $70</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Button calls $70, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $50.

Flop: ($220) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $150</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Pandora raises to $667</font>, Button folds, BB calls $2026 (All-In),Pandora calls $1509.

Turn: ($4572) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: ($4572) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $4572

Results in white below:
BB shows K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Pandora shows K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Re: more information
 

If I'd seen that KJ hand, I would call his flop raise, and plan to get it allin on a safe turn, folding if a heart or jack dropped.

Re: more information
 

Still think its a fold, although closer than before. The stacks are really deep, and bottom two is not exactly a lock against TPTK or an overpair (although obviously I'd love to get my money in against this type of hand). Unless he's consistantly playing top pair/marginal kicker for his whole stack, I think that this still merits a fold against his probable hand range.

Re: more information
 

[ QUOTE ]
Still think its a fold, although closer than before. The stacks are really deep, and bottom two is not exactly a lock against TPTK or an overpair (although obviously I'd love to get my money in against this type of hand). Unless he's consistantly playing top pair/marginal kicker for his whole stack, I think that this still merits a fold against his probable hand range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point about the deep stacks. After seeing the KJ I think I would have no problem getting 2K in there though.

Re: more information
 

ok so youd get 2k in there easy, I agree. What about 3.5? Just stick it in there on the flop?

Re: SB folded n/m
 

[ QUOTE ]
What range of hands would you put on pandora..

AA, KK QQ, JJ, 7h8h, 66, 55

think of any others that are reasonable?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah6h and KhQh come to mind. AhKh probably isn't limping preflop, but either of the others might.

Re: SB folded n/m
 

Those stacks are too big to stick it in there on the flop in an unraised pot. You'd be putting in the 4th bet; even real bad players know that means something huge. If you manage to get it allin on the flop you're either way behind or flipping a coin.

Re: barfing @ 2k PL
 

[ QUOTE ]
IMO, the problem is we are either crushed or racing a very strong draw. I think i can find a fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

what about AA,KK, QQ ggbman?

Re: barfing @ 2k PL
 

I don't know man, there is just something not right about the action on this hand. I would fold here.

Re: SB folded n/m
 

[ QUOTE ]
What range of hands would you put on pandora..

AA, KK QQ, JJ, 7h8h, 66, 55

think of any others that are reasonable?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, at 5/10, I would say his hand range is MUCH WIDER than that, any str8 draw, or any flush draw are possible.

I call flop and see a turn. A safe turn I probably call then if he pushes on river fold, or hopefully check down.

Re: SB folded n/m
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What range of hands would you put on pandora..

AA, KK QQ, JJ, 7h8h, 66, 55

think of any others that are reasonable?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, at 5/10, I would say his hand range is MUCH WIDER than that, any str8 draw, or any flush draw are possible.

I call flop and see a turn. A safe turn I probably call then if he pushes on river fold, or hopefully check down.

[/ QUOTE ]

10/20 is many, many, many times more aggressive than the 1k game. 5/10 is pretty tight and ABC. If you got similar action to this at the 1k you are crushed.

Your line is also pretty appalling.

Re: SB folded n/m
 

Aren't AA and KK extremely likely hands here?? How are they less likely than 55 or 66 or JJ. Yeti I really dont get this and I respect your opinion, please help me out here.

Re: SB folded n/m
 

Not to mention there is only one case of 55 and 66, 3 cases of JJ, but 6 each of AA and KK. I know AA and KK dont always limp here, but does 55 and 66? I know JJ doesnt always. AJ isnt in the discussion either?

Re: SB folded n/m
 

I guess basically we are saying that UTG has to put us on a likely 2 pair here so he is very likely to muck all 1 pair hands? Is that the issue?

Re: barfing @ 2k PL
 

What did SB do?

Re: SB folded n/m
 

[ QUOTE ]
Those stacks are too big to stick it in there on the flop in an unraised pot. You'd be putting in the 4th bet; even real bad players know that means something huge. If you manage to get it allin on the flop you're either way behind or flipping a coin.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't give credit to SB for a big hand, so I'm not worried about him.

I agree that Hero's fourth bet is a bright neon sign of massive strength.

But I still wrestle with the notion that you're quite likely to be ahead against Villain's reasonable range. Such a range for an aggressive player (see the KJ example above) might be AhKh, AhQh, AhTh, KhQh, Ah6h, AJ, AA-JJ, 55, 66, 65: in that spot, you're 63:36 in pot equity terms.

There's 600 in the middle, you're facing a 480 bet, and pertinent players each have 2900 behind.

As I think about it more, I think I like a call better, with the intention of betting a non-heart turn.

Re: SB folded n/m
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Those stacks are too big to stick it in there on the flop in an unraised pot. You'd be putting in the 4th bet; even real bad players know that means something huge. If you manage to get it allin on the flop you're either way behind or flipping a coin.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't give credit to SB for a big hand, so I'm not worried about him.

I agree that Hero's fourth bet is a bright neon sign of massive strength.

But I still wrestle with the notion that you're quite likely to be ahead against Villain's reasonable range. Such a range for an aggressive player (see the KJ example above) might be AhKh, AhQh, AhTh, KhQh, Ah6h, AJ, AA-JJ, 55, 66, 65: in that spot, you're 63:36 in pot equity terms.

There's 600 in the middle, you're facing a 480 bet, and pertinent players each have 2900 behind.

As I think about it more, I think I like a call better, with the intention of betting a non-heart turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

My guess is that given the (reasonable) hand range above, hero is now ahead in pot equity terms after a blank turn.

Also, are you accounting for the fact that there are fewer possible comboes of 56, 55, and 66 because of hero's holding?

Re: SB folded n/m
 

Well, he's gotta put us on two pair+ (or at least most would). And if he had AJ, wouldnt he just call the 200, because only better hands will call if he makes it 700 to go? so as UTG with AA or AJ, reraising is terrible as you wont get action from anything you beat. Much better to call and see what the turn brings, or fold outright.

SO that's the thought process behind the fact that he 'must' have us beat. On the other hand, its very unlikely as a 25/16 that he has JJ and limped (raising KJs from ep in the earlier hand), he doesnt have J5 or J6, and theres only one combo each of 55 and 66.

So looking at it one way, he 'must' have us beat (or a huge draw), but on the other hand he is highly unlikely to have us beat based on card combinations and his preflop tendencies. All this stuff makes it a tough decision IMO, and not as close as Yeti and Flawless say.

Re: SB folded n/m
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well, he's gotta put us on two pair+ (or at least most would). And if he had AJ, wouldnt he just call the 200, because only better hands will call if he makes it 700 to go? so as UTG with AA or AJ, reraising is terrible as you wont get action from anything you beat. Much better to call and see what the turn brings, or fold outright.

[/ QUOTE ]

your analysis is good but it's not accounting for one thing. Human error.

The right way to play something and the way it's played often do not coincide, so it's still very possible (although less feasible then say 66; it's just something that should still in his hand range) he's going crazy with either AJ or AA.

Re: SB folded n/m
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also, are you accounting for the fact that there are fewer possible comboes of 56, 55, and 66 because of hero's holding?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sheesh, I hope to hell so. I'm using Andrew Prock's PokerStove software: you could knock me over with a feather if it doesn't take account of opponents' cards.

This spot is an example of the old win-a-small-one-lose-a-big-one situation, obv.