Re: a line i like.......
 

Bob,

I actually take this line a fair amount, against such an opponent. And I adopt the same reasoning that you have expressed. But frankly, I do fear that it might be a leak.

One part of the equation I have yet to figure out seems pretty simple (for a math person). I want to get a sense of the chances that villain has a pair on the flop. I know that if his pockets are unpaired, he flops a pair about 1/3 the time. But if we add that number to the percentage of time that villain started with a pair, what is the total number?

I think the answer might affect my approach. If I thought that there was a 50% chance villain has a pair on the flop - one way or another - then it sure seems better to go to war on the flop, since he's not ever going to fold.

I realize this doesn't account for draws. But this analysis would help, at least, when the board isn't drawy. In your case, I suppose the board might be considered semi-drawy.

results
 

.....against spazztards like this guy. he is 50/20/5 over 100 hands. thoughts?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.66 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 10.66 BB

since i only had 100 hands on this guy i didn't want to assume he was a complete nut, but he clealry had some issues. i have no idea on any of the math, but there are only 2 queens left for him to go bonkers with. he doesnt have AA or KK. if he has JT, then i didn't charge him enough. anything else, and i want him to keep firing. he had 77 and MHIG.