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-   -   On the bubble (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=127841)

Wahoo 09-24-2004 12:11 PM

On the bubble
 
Live $55+5 tournament. Down to five players. Four places pay. BB has more chips than the rest of the table combined and is playing loose and poorly. Blinds of T300 and T600. Chip counts approximate. (Neither player in action below is me -- I am SB and finished second in tournament.)

UTG (about T5000) folds.
MP about T5500) goes all in.
Button (T3000) folds.
SB (T6500) folds.
BB (T30000) calls.

MP has KK. BB has Ad 5d. BB catches an A on river and wins. MP was 2-1 favorite and could have been a much higher favorite given the range of hands BB was calling with. Does anyone not like this play? I think I probably would have done it the same way (or certainly, I would have been all in after the flop). How should being on the bubble affect decisions here?

Note: Two diamonds came up on the flop, so in retrospect BB would have called an all-in even after the flop and still won on the river.

Thanks for your thoughts,
Wahoo

Che 09-24-2004 12:22 PM

Re: On the bubble
 
Wahoo-

I suppose that KK could be folded PF if the payout was something like $1000/1250/1500/2000, but if the payout structure was more normal (i.e. top-heavy) then it's an autopush with a loose BB and a stack <10BB.

Later,
Che

Wahoo 09-24-2004 12:28 PM

Re: On the bubble
 
I had not considered the impact of the payout structure, but don't think it would justify not pushing. It was 1:2:3:4 (first place paying four times fourth place). I know MP and he was really kicking himself for this move. I would have done it every time and just wanted to see if I was missing something.

Thanks,
Wahoo

Che 09-24-2004 12:57 PM

Re: On the bubble
 
[ QUOTE ]
I would have done it every time

[/ QUOTE ]

And you would be correct to do so. Easy push with this payout structure.

Wahoo 09-24-2004 01:52 PM

Re: On the bubble
 
Ok, help me with one of my hands from the same tournament. Two players left. I have approximately T15000. Bad guy has approximately T30000. Blinds are 1000/2000.

Bad guy is playing too tight and has folded to most of my raises pre and post flop. I have been having success getting pre-flop folds and collecting blinds, but have been going at it for some time without making progress (got up two-to-one in chips but lost coin flip all in situation).

I am in big blind with 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Bad guy completes small blind. I check.

Flop comes 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

I go all in, figuring I have good chance of getting bad guy to fold, have a pair, and have a good chance of improving.

Anyone think this was an obvious bad play? Anything I should be considering before doing this other than the factors above?

Thanks,
Wahoo

adanthar 09-24-2004 02:28 PM

Re: On the bubble
 
You're 50:50 against A8 or KK. I don't see how else you can play it.

schwza 09-24-2004 02:53 PM

Re: On the bubble
 
would he bluff if you check? if so, i'd prefer a c/r all-in.

pushing ~13k into a 4k pot just seems like too much of an overbet - i'd imagine you'd never do that if you flopped top pair or a set, so against a good player you telegraph "draw." but if he checks behind, that's bad, so if you don't think he'll bet a fair percentage of the time, i'd push.

Wahoo 09-24-2004 04:17 PM

Re: On the bubble
 
The bad guy was passive, but would raise with very good cards. I assumed I was going against two uncoordinated high cards (QT off or something like that) because of the call instead of raise on the blind (bad guy was routinely folding garbage pre-flop). I assumed the rag flop did not help and overbet the pot on the flop to scare away a draw. I had enough draws that I figured I was 50:50 at worst if I was wrong. If I had checked, the bad guy had bet, and I raised all-in, I am confident that I would have been called. So, I believe I either had to go all-in first to get the fold equity, or fold to a bet.

It turns out that the bad guy had 99. I did not improve and lost the hand, finishing second in the tournament.

rocflight 09-24-2004 05:23 PM

Re: On the bubble
 
I believe this is called a combo hand where you have a draw and a mid or small pair. The general advice is that you don't go too crazy with a hand like this. If you're the small stack with the flop being low cards, the push all-in seems too aggressive a play. The guy may put you on top pair at best, in which case he might even call with 2 over cards if playing loose enough. In this situation, that's probably the read your opponent had of your hand.

Wahoo 09-24-2004 05:34 PM

Re: On the bubble
 
Thinking through my responses to the comments on this board has helped refine my analysis on this hand. I started out thinking I probably made the right play because I got my money in when I had the advangage (57 to 43 if I am not mistaken), even though it was on a draw. I now think the better play would have been to check and fold to a bet. I don't think my opposition would have bluffed. That way I am either out to live another day, and hopefully get my money in with a bigger advantage, or I see a free card.

Thanks,
Wahoo


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