I think my biggest leak is...
 

I don't lay aces down enough when they are beaten...
I play medium pairs too aggressively after the flop...
I play medium pairs too often before the flop...
I misplay ace-king when I don't hit the flop...
I chase flushes and straights too often...
I don't chase often enough...

Have you said something like this about your game? If you have, you are wrong. In fact, not only are you wrong - that isn't your biggest leak - but I know what your biggest leak is!

Your biggest leak is that you have no idea how to tell a big leak from a small one.

I'm not trying to be cute; it's true. You guys can't tell the big mistakes from the small, the important concepts from the irrelevant. An inability to do this is a HUGE problem. People who can't decide what's important "fix" things that aren't broken, tinker with their games in ways that have almost no impact on their winrate, and sometimes overthink themselves into a tendency to make huge errors (i.e., folding too often in large pots, playing too passively in multiway pots, etc.).

How do I know that none of the "leaks" I mentioned at the top (and many more I didn't mention) aren't your biggest leak? Because they are all small leaks at worst! If any of these was your biggest leak, you would not be reading this post. You would be cleaning up in the Commerce $40-$80 to the tune of $100/hr or more.

So how do you decide what's important? Well, there's a logical process. A "leak" is a tendency to make a particular error systematically every time the opportunity to make it arises.

Folding every time you flopped a straight flush would be a leak (albeit a very bizarre one). But while it's clearly a ludicrous leak to have, it's NOT a big one. You almost never flop a straight flush, so you never get the chance to make your mistake!

The importance of a leak is determined by the product of two quantities:

1. The average magnitude of the error (in expectation) when you make it
2. The FREQUENCY with which you are presented the opportunity to make the error.

The magnitude of an error is defined by your AVERAGE LOSS every time you make the mistake. This is a place where people go wrong all the time when they evaluate mistakes:

First, make sure you are thinking about your average loss... you cannot conclude that you are chasing flushes too often simply because you missed the last four times and lost big pots. Think logically! How often do you expect to make the flush ON AVERAGE, how big is the pot when you win, what is your AVERAGE win or loss from playing the hand the way you are playing it?

Second, realize that there are certain types of errors that are almost never large in magnitude. Calling preflop when you should fold is an example. Say two people limp, and I have J6s on the button. Should I call? Probably not. But how big an error is it if I were to call?

It's small. Like tiny. A fraction of a fraction of a small bet. For instance, calling with J8s is probably correct. J7s might even be right. That's about where the line is. If J7s is just about break-even, how bad could J6s be?

Is J7s a monster compared to J6s? Do you fall off some magic profitability cliff between those two hands? Will calling with J6s ruin you? NO! That's absurd. If J7s is break-even, then J6s can fare no worse than -2% or so of a bet. Like a two cents at most in a $1-$2 game. Probably not even that much.

If you want to learn more about estimating the size of certain errors, you can read this thread from Matthew Hilger's forum.

Ok... so if playing J6s is a tiny error, how big could playing T4s be in the same spot? Well, it's a bigger error, but it's still small... maybe -5% of a bet. How about playing T4s from UTG? That surely must be a big error. Well, it's bigger, but still it's probably no bigger than -15% of a bet.

So if playing all these weak hands is not a big error, then how come every beginner text emphasizes playing tightly so much? Why do I have to fold 80% of my hands?

Frequency. Each loose call you make is a small error. But you get the OPPORTUNITY to make that error on every hand. If you make the error a hundred times a session, a small error becomes a big leak.

On the other hand, if you never get the chance to make the error (e.g., folding the flopped straight flushes... a HUGE error compared to the loose calls we examined... make sure you understand why it's a huge error), then even a big error does not translate to a big leak.

So a leak can be big only if

1. The error is somewhat costly
2. You get the opportunity to make it a lot

In the loose calls example, each individual error is somewhat small, but you make it SO OFTEN that it turns into a big leak.

Other examples of big leaks are folding too often in big pots (a HUGE error that you get to make with rare to occasional frequency), or playing too passively in multiway pots (a substantial error that you get to make frequently).

This morning, someone asked what to do with A2s after five people have folded from middle position.

Does it matter what you do?

Not really. Why? Because no matter what you choose to do, it could NEVER be a big leak. First, it's a borderline situation. If it weren't, he wouldn't be asking about it. Sometimes it's right to call, sometimes fold, and sometimes raise. It depends on the game.

But almost any time the correct answer "depends," they are all relatively close in value no matter the situation. Now getting the "depends situations" correct IN GENERAL distinguishes experts from average winners. That's because "depends situations" IN GENERAL occur relatively frequently. But any INDIVIDUAL "depends situation" doesn't occur very often.

Also, getting the "depends situations" right should be the priority of an already solidly-winning player. So many people ask trivial preflop questions while huge postflop leaks fester in their games.

So back to the A2s after five people fold question... if you make an error in that spot, it can't be a big one. Now how often does it come up? Well, the situation isn't applicable just to A2s... obviously A4s would put you in the same boat, as would 33 and possibly a hand like K7s. But 77 or A8s doesn't really put you in that spot. So the range of "weird" hands in middle position after five people fold is maybe ten or twelve hands: 66-22, A7s-A2s, K8s-K7s... maybe one or two more.

How often are you dealt one of these borderline hands exactly four or five seats from the button and have everyone fold to you? Once a week? Probably not even that often.

So he was asking about a situation where it doesn't really matter much what you do that arises only once every week or so.

Put things into perspective. That's why my book hammers on the postflop stuff so much. Because THAT is where people's big leaks are! That's where people are making LARGE mistakes OFTEN.

I gave a LOT of thought to which ideas I included and which ones I left out. Sometimes I intentionally left out advice that would be helpful because I felt it would DISTRACT people from the much more important stuff. So if I mention something like four times in the book, chances are it's important.

If I didn't mention something, or if I left it vague and didn't devote much space to it, chances are it's not important. I am not perfect, so perhaps I missed an important point. But at least THINK about how important what you are asking about is before you ask. Just doing that thinking will give you insight into the game that knowing what to do with A2s after five folds could NEVER give you.

A quick note about prioritized learning
 

People say all the time stuff like this (in posts):

Well, I know what I'm thinking about isn't that important. It's what I'm working on, though. I can get to the more important stuff later.

Well, that's ok I guess... but say you were a quarterback on a football team. You said to your coach,

"I think we need to spend next practice working on the flea flicker."

Coach says,

"Well, we still don't have the timing right on our slant patterns. That's more important."

And you said to Coach,

"There's plenty of time for slant patterns later. Let's talk about the flea flicker now."

Think about what Coach would say to that idea...

Re: A quick note about prioritized learning
 

Flea-Flicker is the bread and butter play at MIT isn't it?

Gotta outsmart em cause you are too little and slow.

Good post Ed.

Re: A quick note about prioritized learning
 

Great posts.

Re: A quick note about prioritized learning
 

Flea-Flicker is the bread and butter play at MIT isn't it?

The bread and butter play at MIT is the punt. A wobbly squib punt that goes about 15 yards. An MIT signature.

At least we have hot cheerlea... oh... nevermind.

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

[ QUOTE ]
and sometimes overthink themselves into a tendency to make huge errors (i.e., folding too often in large pots, playing too passively in multiway pots, etc.).


[/ QUOTE ]
That would be me. Both when I try to think and when I acting too fast. So far I appear to be making money, and I believe I'm improving, so I'm not ready to throw in the towel quite yet. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

Ed,

Great post. I agree completely. I am about 2/3 of the way through your book and it is really excellent and tremendously helpful. Thanks for writing it and continuing to contribute so much to this board.

One of the things I really like about the book is that it is organized around the really important things. There is a tremendous amount of discussion on these boards about very marginal situations. That is all fine and good, especially for those players who are already pretty solid winners and are trying to be expert. However, for those who are not at that stage, identifying the big leaks is much more important. Your book is helping me focus much more on things like "how to protect my hand in a big pot" (and for those who don't already have the book there is really detailed discussion of this and related concepts) and not "could I have squeezed one more big bet out of my monster hand".

All the best,

Colgin

P.S. In that regard, you will be happy to know that other than reading it through once, I have spent literally no time studying your pre-flop charts. (Which is not to say that I disagree in any way with that advice; I think it is spot on.)

Re: A quick note about prioritized learning
 

One time I walked by the MIT field and saw that Home was up 35-0 in the second quarter.

Maybe they've dropped to the local high school league.

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't lay aces down enough when they are beaten...
I play medium pairs too aggressively after the flop...
I play medium pairs too often before the flop...
I misplay ace-king when I don't hit the flop...
I chase flushes and straights too often...
I don't chase often enough...

[/ QUOTE ]

You have no idea about how much I was laughing when I read this part. I thought you just lost a bet or something.


I guess I´m one of the people who finds the preflop play very important as I think it´s a foundation for the postflop. If I knew that my preflop play was very good I would be able to focus 100% on postflop, which like you say, is where the money are.
I guess caring less about preflop is another way to focus on postflop, but I want every cent I can get.

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

the biggest leak of most people who frequent these forums (myself included sometimes) is blindly leading the advice of superior players, which leads to confusion in simple situations.

Instead of considering WHY you say to do certian things, many people just consider that you said to do it, and store it. That's why we get those posts titled, "Ed Miller Told Me To" where someone does something completely stupid, because he misunderstood you, or posts that say "Ed, you say to raise AJo in MP after 1 limper. What about after 2 limpers? What about in LMP?"

I know this is off-topic, but that's just how I feel.

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

In Clark's reply to the post about what to do with A4s in the CO after a few limpers + 2 posters that checked when the action was on them he said to raise, not stating why. Maybe he didn't say why because he thought it was so obvious. Or maybe it was because he wanted people to think a bit, then maybe ask him if it was for the reasons they could come up with. I don't know, but I hope it was because he wanted them to think about it since there's a big difference between having to come up with something yourself and reading about it.

I used to follow "set rules", and I still do, but I'm trying to get away from it, opening up/loosen up a bit. Lately it's been working out pretty nice, and I feel I'm getting there.

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

I'm sure he did it on purpose. I like when they tell us something, but don't way why.

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

I agree for the most part with your post. One thing I'm not sure about is you assertion that misplaying overcards (you listed AK specifically, but we could be talking about any 2 big cards such as AQ, AJ, KQ etc.) can't be a big leak. You will miss the flop 66% of the time with these hands. Isn't 66% frequent enough to become a big leak?

I forget who it was but maybe a month ago someone posted a typical AK hand that missed the flop. He prefaced his post with a confession that he was an overall loser with AKo and AKs after a substantial number of hands in his PT database. AKs and AKo are my 3rd and 5th winningest hands in terms of BB/Hand. Now, he was in the negative with each of them. If that's not a leak I don't know what is.

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

Well, he do appear to be somewhat smart.

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I forget who it was but maybe a month ago someone posted a typical AK hand that missed the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think it was Big Endian if I spelled it correctly.

And no, like Ed or Clark explained in that thread even after that many hands it doesn't have to be a leak.

Guido

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

[ QUOTE ]

And no, like Ed or Clark explained in that thread even after that many hands it doesn't have to be a leak.


[/ QUOTE ]

OK, but Big Endian was just one example. My point is that big cards still miss 2/3 of the time which I think is frequent enough to qualify as a big leak.

Re: A quick note about prioritized learning
 

One time I walked by the MIT field and saw that Home was up 35-0 in the second quarter.

Actually, they played competitively for their league. It always seemed like we were 6-5 or something for the year. But I actually watched a few games more or less beginning to end, and my high school team was WAY better.

Then again Peyton Manning played on my high school team... so I guess I'd be damn surprised if it wasn't way better.

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

OK, but Big Endian was just one example. My point is that big cards still miss 2/3 of the time which I think is frequent enough to qualify as a big leak.

I'll grant you medium leak. But people overestimate the size of that particular leak because of the nature of overcards.

They are a high variance proposition even when played correctly. Most of the time you play your overcards, you will end up losing an extra bet or two. Occasionally you pick up a pot by playing them correctly. So after people lose ten overcard hands in a row, they sometimes tend to say, "I'm just throwing my money away on these damn overcards." That thought gets people to, "Maybe I shouldn't raise preflop in the first place so I wouldn't feel so tied to them after the flop. Then I could just fold correctly like I want to."

To some extent, they are like 16 against a 10 in blackjack. People wrack their brains about how to play that situation... and the reality is that it doesn't much matter what they do. Hitting and standing are pretty close. The reason they think so hard is because no matter what they do IT'S GONNA TURN OUT BADLY. There's no way to turn 16 against a 10 into a rosy situation.

Same thing with overcards. Generally with ace-king, you will have raised preflop so the pot is usually big enough to take one off on the flop. But people think it's such a tough decision because no matter what you do, it's not gonna be pretty. You went from excellent starting hand to very marginal situation in two seconds.

You are usually gonna lose when you flop overcards. That causes people psychologically to draw the mistaken conclusion that their play of overcards is a much bigger money loser than it probably actually is on average.

EDIT: Oh, and by the way. NO ONE plays ace-king, suited or offsuit, poorly enough to turn it into a net long-term money loser. No one. The hand is too good.

Post Flop Understanding
 

Ed,

I have read your book and must say that I think I could have gotten a 100% on your pre-flop questions in the back just from reading these boards and a small amount of play. Once we got to the flop questions, there was one play I think I had been choosing differently than your theories recommended. Then on the turn and river I was finding my answers either too aggressive or too passive compared to your answer to a number of your questions. When working through them I would cover up your answer, read the question, give myself about 20 seconds to answer then go, "Doh! That cannot be right?" Then I read a well thought out reason for the action and the theory I read in the book comes into focus. I have not had a lot of time to play since my first read through, but if you do a second book, include even more of those post flop questions in that format. So far, that has exposed more problems with my understanding of your theories than reading the chapters that contained the theories and trying to compare the theory to "how I play" while reading. Thanks a load.

Vern

Edit: I used the word 'theory' because I do not intend to become an "Ed Milller told me to" player or any author for that fact. I want to be an, "Ed Miller helped me understand why" player and so far I am grateful for the edification.

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

As far as I remember he was down with AKs not with AKo. He had AKs about 400-500 times so it's not impossible to be down after pumping up the pot a couple of times and not hit...

I agree that when you lose with both AKo and AKs after more than 100K hands you are probably doing something wrong...

Guido

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

Just ordered your book today, looking forward to it.

I think your post is missing something though: a leak is only big if it's a significant money loser with regularity against your opposition. You play in relation to your opponents is what makes money, not your play unto itself.

In low limit games, where there are frequently players so bad they can be 5-10BB/hour losers. This provides awesome overlay and cushions your mistakes in a way that can stifle learning.

I think what's lost most often is simply the understanding that, in these games, you don't have to play rocket-science poker - or even firecracker-science poker. Over thinking costs you money more often than not because it can lead to that fatal mistake of laying a hand down in a huge pot. All those well laid plans and hard thought plays that might gain a fraction of a bet once every month can lead to mistakes that loose you 10-20BB pots once a week.

About the AKo, AKs thing that was brought up. It was AKs that was the loser, AKo was the winner. And I didn't have near as many hands in my DB as I thought I did - a complete brain lock after having not played in a while.

I did however have a very bad habit of playing my AKs like a made hand. Problem "fixed".

- Jim

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

Excellent post. We do spend too much time on the same old preflop subjects that barely matter. Any regular on this forum could assemble a top-10 list.

There is a third dimension to the leaks question, in addition to cost and frequency: effort. How much work is it to fix the leak? Example:

Leak 1: I used to coldcall AJo from LP versus an EP PFR. That leak was fixed the same day I realized it was wrong. I'm not sure how exactly serious that leak was, but fixing it was time well-spent because so little effort was required.

Leak 2: When someone raises my river bet, I automatically crying call without thinking. This is a moderately costly mistake that occurs with moderate frequency. Certainly it costs me more than my occasional AJo mistake. The effort for me to fix this is very large. It's been an identified problem for two months and it's still leaking.

That's why I am happy to read occasional threads about novel or little-discussed preflop situations. If I learn one good idea it's worth a few minutes on my time, even if it doesn't come up very often.

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

I don't know what you are talking about ... my biggest leak is definately my preflop play of AJo from UTG.

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

Hmmm, I have mastered the AJo play, now I find KQo from UTG is my biggest leak. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm, I have mastered the AJo play, now I find KQo from UTG is my biggest leak. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, you guys are advanced - I'm still working on JJ from the blinds [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

Excellent post, Ed, as always.

I agree with what you say, and I'm glad you wrote this because I know that many people (like me) are posting their questions, because they don't know that either: a mistake is costly or how frequently it occurs. I, for one, feel that I get KJo UTG or UTG+1 every f'n orbit. Its not true, but for some reason, its all I think of whenever I get it. It doesn't happen with much more frequency than getting A5s in MP (only because A5s is suited(I think)). So while this post is extremely helpful, I can't answer the questions because I don't possess enough statistical knowledge about the game. In order to do that, you have to play many many many hands. I am up to about 30K, and I am just starting to understand some concepts.

Another problem is I cannot always exactly calculate the cost of my mistake. Calling when I should raise in some parts may be costly, sometimes not, and I post hopefully to figure out if it is very costly. So I think some people are posting hands to try and figure this out (although they may not know it, I know i was not aware of it). Thanks for the insight.

I would ask you what you think the big leaks are, but then you would just say

BUY MY BOOK
BUY MY BOOK
BUY MY BOOK

-AA

bump. for those who missed it.
 

Enjoy.

Thanks and Thanks.
 

Thanks for the bump, brick. This was priceless for me.

Ed, sir, this is phenominal. The fact that you are out here supporting everyone who reads your book is amazing to me. This one post alone took you over an hour to draft, easy, (When you could be out crushing big games). I very much appreciate it.

- Lance

Re: Thanks and Thanks.
 

I already bought the book, and without paying another cent, I get like another chapter, for free! Is this a great country or what! Thanks Ed?

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

So why can't misplaying AK after a missed flop be the biggest leak? It's fairly frequent and can definately be costly.

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

Because even if you suck ass it would be hard for you to misplay AK post flop when you miss enough that it would actually matter to your overall win rate.

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

Ed, all I can say is that if I weren't heterosexual and if I didn't love breasts so much (ie if I was gay) I would make love to you.

Hold'em is not a game based on your first two cards only. It's a game heavily based on the flop, turn and river because that is where a lot of the money goes in and ultimately where the key decisions need to be made.

People focus so strongly on pre-flop play. "Oh you shouldn't have played J9s or K10s in that position" or "Why did you call a 3bet raise with pocket 8's in the cutoff when you clearly knew there's 5 other callers and one of them?"

But where is the focus on correct flop, turn and river play. Yes selecting the right hands to play pre-flop is very important, but all that goes down the drain if you don't play it correctly once the board comes up.

So you flop your Aces-full in a 10 way pot. Well, you could check it all the way down pretending you got nothing, but the goal is not to get sneaky and deceptive and try to play your hand hideously. The goal is to win as much money as possible and thus increase your EV. Yeah, everyone knows how Aces full is going to win 99.9 percent of the time, but how much are you going to win and how are you going to maximize that pot with key decisions you make post-flop is more vital and is thus the leak most of the players, including myself, have.

Ed your book isn't revolutionary in any means, but the fact that it covers so much post flop play makes it worth it's money ten times over. There is just such a lack of literature available with regards to post-flop play.

If you do come out with a second book, I hope you will continue to focus and advance on post-flop play.

Great post Ed.

Lawrence

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

My reply was mostly to show that Ed Millers categorization of the biggest leak as "the inability to recognize leaks" seems like semantics to me. It's like saying the biggest preflop mistake is that you don't recognize the preflop mistakes you make.

And I definately think misplaying overcards (which AK is only a small subset of) postflop is definately a big problem area for many poker players, and it costs them lots of money.

Re: bump. for those who missed it.
 

[ QUOTE ]

Enjoy.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really did. Thanks to Ed and brick

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

I think my biggest leak is...

Having JoeTall to my left in live games [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Having JoeTall to my left in live games

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like a checkraising bonanza to me.

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

my biggest leak is not having that maniac ( [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]) sfer to my right in live games [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: Oh, and by the way. NO ONE plays ace-king, suited or offsuit, poorly enough to turn it into a net long-term money loser. No one. The hand is too good.

[/ QUOTE ]

That sounds like a DARE!

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: Oh, and by the way. NO ONE plays ace-king, suited or offsuit, poorly enough to turn it into a net long-term money loser. No one. The hand is too good.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I'll volunteer. 15K hands. AKo 159 times, -0.2 BB/Hand.

Should I just talk to Sample Size Man about this one?

Re: I think my biggest leak is...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: Oh, and by the way. NO ONE plays ace-king, suited or offsuit, poorly enough to turn it into a net long-term money loser. No one. The hand is too good.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I'll volunteer. 15K hands. AKo 159 times, -0.2 BB/Hand.

Should I just talk to Sample Size Man about this one?

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh ... yes.

For me AKo has a standard devation of 3.91BB/hand. Assuming your's is similar, you would have to have played AKo about 1500 times for -.2BB/100 to be less than zero in the statistically significant sense.