Donkey or Clever?
 

I post sometimes just to see people's responses....

PartyPoker, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t1205)
UTG+1 (t648)
MP1 (t1317)
MP2 (t1145)
CO (t360)
Button (t1385)
SB (t1380)
Hero (t560)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP2 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, SB calls t50, Hero checks

Flop: (t200) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t300) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
<font color="red">SB bets t100</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises t460 (allin)</font>

Here are my thoughts: Preflop completers are either completing with strong hands, hoping I push into them (in this kind of spot), reverse gappers, or will fold to a push. My check here - meh.

Flop: Well, his check here is very very weak. My check behind - meh.

Turn: Well, I have 3 outs to the nuts! Oh and one over! That's 7 outs + 1 if he doesn't have a FD. Regardless, I put his probe bet here as wimpy wimpy wimpy.

Re: Donkey or Clever?
 

I don't think you are drawing to the nuts there on the turn...

I think I like it. If you fold, you will be losing 1/3 of you chips in the next 2 hands anyways. The guy could fold, or he could call and you could have your 7 outs to double up and be in the mix of things again.

Re: Donkey or Clever?
 

c) Clever Donkey!

Hehe. I'd say its read-heavy, but not a bad move if you're sensing something fishy...definitely looks that way on paper as an isolated hand.

Side note: I'll often play decent hands like this out of the blinds just to elicit pushes from guys like you...but I suffer from FPS - so you can assume most players don't play like this I think...

Re: Donkey or Clever?
 

I would say if you read his flop check as weak, you should push there. It's already t200 in the pot and you have only t460 - that's not to be sniffed at. I think you're getting a bit greedy in waiting for him to put some chips in on the turn and then pushing, but it's not so bad with that exact card, just a whole lot more of them you won't like or that you'll be pushing the turn with, and he'll have other outs with and call, etc.

Re: Donkey or Clever?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would say if you read his flop check as weak, you should push there. It's already t200 in the pot and you have only t460 - that's not to be sniffed at. I think you're getting a bit greedy in waiting for him to put some chips in on the turn and then pushing, but it's not so bad with that exact card, just a whole lot more of them you won't like or that you'll be pushing the turn with, and he'll have other outs with and call, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

I fear a slowplay less on the turn than the flop, and often find a turn bet to be 'safer.'

But I do understand your point...

On a side note: do people default to betting the flop or turn in blind battle steals?
Does your default change if you're the SB?

Re: Donkey or Clever?
 

I agree completely. There's only a 1 in 3 chance he has a pair, and without one there's a good chance he'll fold, and he may fold a smaller pair. Hero would be risking 2.3 to win 1, so Villain would have to call 43% of the time (and win all of these) to break even, so pushing has to be +EV here.

Checking the flop gives Villain the opportunity to take the pot away.