Betting system for UK soccer
 

This is what to do every Saturday:

Pick two banker Homes.

Pick two banker Aways.

Bet these four certainties with each one of a block of five games in Division Two to Draw.

Five 5-game accumulators at £1 each returns about £20 for each successful bet, no matter how low the Home and Away odds are, because of the Draw odds.

For instance, today I had 2/7, 2/7, 10/11, 10/11, and 9/4 to return £19.58.

There is "always" at least one Draw in any block of five games in Division Two, which makes the bet so profitable in the long run. Ironically, it's more often a "cert Home" that lets me down.

I bet at Ladbrokes as I think their bets display is quick and easy to use; but that's simply a personal preference and anywhere that covers the full 50 or so Saturday games would be fine.

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

Sounds cool. I'll check it out.
Shouldn't this be in Sports Betting though?

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

So, just to make sure. "Division 2" is the 4th league... the one with Wycombe, Grimsby, Carlisle?

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

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Division 2" is the 4th league... the one with Wycombe, Grimsby, Carlisle?

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Yes.

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

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Shouldn't this be in Sports Betting though?

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Possibly. But it's also Internet Gambling, I think.

And I rarely leave the Zoo.

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

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And I rarely leave the Zoo.

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Good man, good man.

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

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There is "always" at least one Draw in any block of five games in Division Two

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Well, you certainly seem to be right about that part. Here are the total number of draws in that league:

1998/1999: 147/552 (27%)
1999/2000: 146/552 (26%)
2000/2001: 157/552 (28%)
2001/2002: 146/552 (26%)
2002/2003: 167/552 (30%)
2003/2004: 149/552 (27%)

And so far this year, 36%!

Good stuff.

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

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Ironically, it's more often a "cert Home" that lets me down.

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this is why i stopped betting on it.....english footy is soooooo rigged

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

So, after doing some thinking on this system. What we are doing for each 5-game accumulator is making four "safe" bets and one additional bet that simply is to bet a draw on a random game in division 2.

If betting a draw on a random game in division 2 is -EV we would be better off with just our "safe" bets. It shouldn't be too hard to figure out if the draw bets are likely to be +EV... From the statistics above we can be pretty sure that at least 25% of the games are draws. This means that the odds we get for a draw has to be 3/1 or better on average. (I'm not used to this odds notation since we use decimal numbers in Sweden, so someone please correct me if I'm wrong).

I don't have the division 2 odds in front of me so I can't tell you if it actually is +EV or not.

Anyway, if the division 2 draw bets would be +EV, wouldn't we be better off just betting combinations of division 2 draws and don't bother with the "safe" bets?

Re: Betting system for UK soccer
 

The thing that you forget to mention is that the draw pays out based on a win rate of approximately 31%. I noticed the high percentage of draws about 2 months ago and it has been paying dividends each week.

Each week I look for the matchups of teams that have the highest number of draws. If they have similar goals scored and allowed and are close in the league table, I bet on the draw. I pick 3 matches each week that best match my filter and I have yet to have a losing week.

League 2 is filled with plenty of teams that draw at 40% or better in their matches. Nothing like taking advantage of some +EV situations. I have started to wonder how long it will be before the books adjust the draw odds for the league to represent the results. Our saving grace in this could be that the draw is by far the least bet result in any match.

I will also add that there are teams in other divisions in the UK that play as if they have no desire to anything but draw against any team with moderate ability. I will give one that is drawing at over 60% and is playing today - Southampton. They have been cashing the draw like they have their own money on it.

I realize that past results are no guaranty of future results, but until these teams are willing to prove me wrong, I'm willing to keep cashing in.