Challenging JoAs idea of RB worth?
 

From ESPN.com's NFL Myths Front Page Article:

Myth No. 2: Highest average per carry wins (55 percent)

This one's interesting. You would think the average-per-carry would be a deal-breaker in an NFL game in which running is the gold standard. You would think …

But in 2003, it was virtually a statistical dead heat (51 percent). So what gives? In the end, the more important statistic -- keeping in mind the importance of time of possession and turnovers -- is total carries.

Two examples from this past week's games: The Giants averaged 5.7 yards per carry at Seattle -- a full two yards more than the Seahawks -- but the Seahawks ran the ball five more times (34) and ultimately won. The Buccaneers had a better average-per-carry than the Bears (4.3 vs. 3.6), but Chicago squeezed off eight more carries (33) and won the game by a field goal.

Take the curious case of the New Orleans Saints. They're 2-3 when the opposition's average-per-carry is higher but, almost inexplicably, they're 1-5 when they have a higher average per carry. They were 0-5 before the win Sunday over the Jets.

Although the three teams with the highest average-per-carry -- Atlanta (5.1), Denver (5.0) and Seattle (5.0) -- could all be playoff teams, how do you explain Carolina? The Panthers are 8-3, but their average-per-carry is a dreadful 3.0, the worst figure in the league. New England and Dallas are both sitting in first place, but their numbers (3.6 and 3.4, respectively) are woeful.
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Re: Challenging JoAs idea of RB worth?
 

The problem with this is that teams winning in the 4th quarter start running the ball a lot more, upping their total carries and often reducing their ypc as the defense knows it is coming.

Re: Challenging JoAs idea of RB worth?
 

Hoya,
That is one of the reasons why I think his faith in YPC is flawed.

Be Healthy,
Funk

Re: Challenging JoAs idea of RB worth?
 

although i disagree with JoA on some things these stats were specifically dug up to challenge the myth. a few games from one season isnt convincing evidence.

Re: Challenging JoAs idea of RB worth?
 

These stats are not game specific. They are over the course of a number of seasons. They simply give recent game specific examples.

Re: Challenging JoAs idea of RB worth?
 

[ QUOTE ]
-- keeping in mind the importance of time of possession and turnovers -- is total carries.

[/ QUOTE ]

Parcells has always said this. like anything else, no stat can be taken in a vacuum, though. there's a good reason why only a couple guys have averaged over 5 YPC over a season - they are better than everyone else.

my simple feeling is that there a few guys who are head and shoulders above everyone else, a bunch of guys who are similarly talented thay may perform better/worse depending on their team, and a few teams who really need an upgrade at RB.

no big mystery

Re: Challenging JoAs idea of RB worth?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Although the three teams with the highest average-per-carry -- Atlanta (5.1), Denver (5.0) and Seattle (5.0) -- could all be playoff teams, how do you explain Carolina? The Panthers are 8-3, but their average-per-carry is a dreadful 3.0, the worst figure in the league. New England and Dallas are both sitting in first place, but their numbers (3.6 and 3.4, respectively) are woeful.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gee, Jim, I think it has to do with:

Carolina has a good defense, great receiver, and an easy schedule.
New England plays in a crappy division.
Dallas has one of the best defenses in the league, and a pretty damned good passing offense.

Does this mean the YPC stat sucks? There are problems with the YPC stat - some players are better or worse than their YPC depending on how consistent they are. IE, Barry was worse than his YPC stat because he could gain nothing on 3 carries and then bust a 50 yard run on the fourth. It also doesn't to take into account defenses played or the score, as has been said before. However, YPC is still the most reliable simple, readily available statistic for measuring an RBs worth, definitely much moreso than total yards. However, if it seems like I use that to form all of my opinions, I don't. I much prefer to use DPAR and DVOA from Football Outsiders (of course I do, I work there). This takes into account a) RB consistency, b) Defenses played, and c) score of the game. (It's easier to get points on a run when you're ahead by 2 scores).

I think this is actually more of an indicator of what I've been saying - a great RB isn't worth as much as most people think.

Re: Challenging JoAs idea of RB worth?
 

[ QUOTE ]
New England plays in a crappy division.

[/ QUOTE ]

NE has played 2 division games thus far this year.

Re: Challenging JoAs idea of RB worth?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
New England plays in a crappy division.

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NE has played 2 division games thus far this year.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, yeah. What's your point?

They have [censored] teams in their division -> [censored] teams go 6-10 -> New England makes the playoffs after going 9-7.

Re: Challenging JoAs idea of RB worth?
 

JoA,

I had no idea you worked for FO. It's one of my favorite websites. Congrats (and thanks) for whatever good work you do for them.