5/10 NL: Set of Ducks on a scary flop.
 

Okay, first few orbits here. Did I let an AK escape too cheaply?

Stack sizes: Hero has 1000, Villian covers.

PREFLOP: UTG calls, hero calls with 2 : [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]:, 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], folds around to SB who raises to 40. UTG folds, hero calls 30. <font color="green"> POT: $80 </font>

FLOP is [K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]: SB bets 78, Hero raises to 168, Villian thinks and calls. <font color="green"> POT: $410 </font>

TURN is [K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]], [3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]: Villian checks, Hero bets $250. Villian thinks and folds.

Hmmmm. Flop raise is a must right? Turn bet size correct? I think maybe he had QQ with the Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] looking at that play. If he had AK, I let him off too cheaply.

Re: 5/10 NL: Set of Ducks on a scary flop.
 

Make a real raise on the flop. Board is draw heavy as hell.

Pot sized raise = $320 Your raise gives every draw odds to call.

Your turn bet is also pretty weak, I'd again make it closer to pot. If I had made a real raise on the flop, I would just push.

If the board were a bit less drawy, I think your turn bet would be okay, but I would still lean more towards at least 3/4 the pot.

Re: 5/10 NL: Set of Ducks on a scary flop.
 

That is a rather draw heavy board for a set there. I would raise the flop with real strength there to make a possible drawer pay. When u see the safe 3 card i would feel inclined to make a pot sized bet or might put my stack in.

Re: 5/10 NL: Set of Ducks on a scary flop.
 

Obviousl this board is draw heavy and a big raise is needed. Heres my question / problem with it though.

He limped with 22. He called $30 more (obvious call)
He needs to make about $240 to break even since hes gonna have to fold almost every time he doesnt hit a set. Actually its probably closer to $300 to cover the times he gets set over setted.

He only made about $200 on this hand so in terms of EV, you could say he actually lost money.

If he makes a bigger flop raise, the guy may fold and then he makes even less. I realize that if he doesnt raise, he takes a chance of losing a big pot, but it also makes it look likes OP is drawing if he just calls the flop. He can then raise a non flush card turn.

Im not saying that calling the flop on this draw heavy board is correct, necessarily. Im just wondering if anyone else thinks this way. In terms of EV, he wouldve been better folding to the preflop raise even thought the call was clearly correct at the time.

Does anyone else think like this?

Re: 5/10 NL: Set of Ducks on a scary flop.
 

You are looking at this the wrong way. His goal should not be to make 240 every time. His goal should be to make the most money out of each hand as possible, and in the long run that should add up to more than 240. Sometimes that will mean accepting a $40 loss, sometimes it means only making 200, and sometime it will mean making 1,000. You are not going to stack your opponent every time you hit a set, but in a good game it will happen often enough that calling 3bbs with any pocket pair is profitable.

Going in with the mindset that you need to make 240 is dangerous if it means that you give your opponent the correct odds to draw out on you.

Re: 5/10 NL: Set of Ducks on a scary flop.
 

If you just call the flop he puts you on a draw or marginal hand and bets a lot on the turn.

If you raise big on the flop he wonders if you're bluffing or semi-bluffing and might get committed with a crushed hand.

If you raise small on the flop and bet a blank on the turn he knows you're strong and folds.

Re: 5/10 NL: Set of Ducks on a scary flop.
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you just call the flop he puts you on a draw or marginal hand and bets a lot on the turn.

If you raise big on the flop he wonders if you're bluffing or semi-bluffing and might get committed with a crushed hand.

If you raise small on the flop and bet a blank on the turn he knows you're strong and folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly, thats why I might just call this flop. Odds are better that the caller is drawing than it is that the raiser / better is drawing. If you just call the flop, he'll probably pound the turn even if he has nothing. In those cases you make more than you do by raising because if he has nothing he'll fold to your raise. Its a risk of course

Re: 5/10 NL: Set of Ducks on a scary flop.
 

[ QUOTE ]

Does anyone else think like this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty silly way to think of it.

He doesn't need to make up for the implied odds right now, on this specific hand. You aren't counting all the times when he does stack AK on a board like this, or an overpair on 235 etc.

Re: 5/10 NL: Set of Ducks on a scary flop.
 

fold pre flop

Re: 5/10 NL: Set of Ducks on a scary flop.
 

[ QUOTE ]
fold pre flop

[/ QUOTE ]

this is bad