Flip the Cards Over
 

BostonZak and I were discussing a hand a poor player played.

We know that playing a hand well or poorly in game time and playing a hand well or poorly according to the fundamental theorom of poker are 2 different things. Imagine BB has a software that shows other players hands. Do you think his call is a mistake according to the ftop? If so, how much of a mistake (quantitatively)?

Button has A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

CO has 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2

BB has T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

MP1 has Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

CO posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO (poster) calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

Betting about 6 to 1, he needs like 14% equity here. He has no more than 5 outs to improve, which would be 20% equity if they were all clean. The problem is that they are never always clean in a multiway pot like this, and it is entirely possible considering the pre-flop action that this will go to more bets. If it gets three-bet, he could be paying effectively 3 into a pot of like 15-17 or something like that, so his equity demands go up from like 14 to more like 16% or so.

I think on average he's go something like 12% equity here and needs like 15% on average to continue, so his mistake is something like .4-.5 sb since he's paying 2 SB here.

Obviously a lot of this depends on how you discount the two pair outs. But I think we need to discount them at least 30% or so (that'd be down to 14%) and 40% seems more likely to be right.

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

WD:

Are you considering implied odds?

Also, we'll say MP1 is not a moron and is not 3 betting here.

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

i believe i would call here if i were him and i had this info.

getting ~7:1 (we dont know that QQ/22 calls the raise), we have 5 squeaky clean outs and we can be pretty sure this is all we're going to have to pay to see the turn. we will hit 5/(52-11 known cards) times, which is 12.2% of the time, or 7.2:1.

with implied odds, this is a super easy call. especially because there will only be a 6 out redraw against us if we improve - the great part is that we have no reverse implied odds since we simply open fold whenever one of these lands:

3 aces
1 queen
2 twos

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

Q,

I left out the implied odds part.

Implied odds here are pretty small actually because villain is going to hit and lose here with some frequency. He's vulnerable to redraws as well. I guess it is a slight positive effect, though. So I guess the decision is closer to neutral, maybe like .1-.2 SB bad.

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

i don't see how this is close at all. we only get outdrawn 6/40 times (15%). we are just about getting even money to call on the flop with our 5 outer and if we improve on the turn we gain at least 2 big bets 85% of the time (depending on how bad the guys with QQ/22 are).

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

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i don't see how this is close at all. we only get outdrawn 6/40 times (15%). we are just about getting even money to call on the flop with our 5 outer and if we improve on the turn we gain at least 2 big bets 85% of the time (depending on how bad the guys with QQ/22 are).

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I don't think you are discounting your outs nearly heavily enough. We do NOT have 5 outs here. It's more like 3-4.

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i don't see how this is close at all. we only get outdrawn 6/40 times (15%). we are just about getting even money to call on the flop with our 5 outer and if we improve on the turn we gain at least 2 big bets 85% of the time (depending on how bad the guys with QQ/22 are).

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I don't think you are discounting your outs nearly heavily enough. We do NOT have 5 outs here. It's more like 3-4.

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you really must be wondering why the thread is called "Filp the Cards Over" huh? [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i don't see how this is close at all. we only get outdrawn 6/40 times (15%). we are just about getting even money to call on the flop with our 5 outer and if we improve on the turn we gain at least 2 big bets 85% of the time (depending on how bad the guys with QQ/22 are).

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you are discounting your outs nearly heavily enough. We do NOT have 5 outs here. It's more like 3-4.

[/ QUOTE ]
you really must be wondering why the thread is called "Filp the Cards Over" huh? [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]


OHHHHHH.....

I get it.

No, of course villain isn't making a mistake. FTOP-wise this is an easy call.

I was confused. I thought you were trying to figure out whether it's generally a mistake.


Yeah, so it's a call here I guess... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

Now, I have to ask this.

Why is it that uninformed players make this +EV call, and we don't? What are we seeing here that makes us fold?

The flop raiser is a solid tag. What type of range do we give him here?

Let's say the PFRer is also a tighter and aggressive player. What are we giving him here?