Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

10/20 live in LA. I have $3700, villain covers. Villain is aggro and kind of tricky, a pro, and generally a dick. Table is 6 handed. We used to play together some when I was much laggier, but I don't know that he remembers, so his view of me is who knows.

I open A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG for $100. Folded to villain in BB who calls.

(Pot $210)

Dream flop of 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
He checks, I bet $140, thinking he may come over the top with a really wide range, but he does not, just calls.

(Pot $490)

Turn 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he checks and I check (we can argue about the turn check, as I don't know that I like it much now).

River A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

He leads really aggressively - like an over the top strong means weak thing - for $400.

Who raises?

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

me

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

Me too, with the plan of folding to a three-bet, I think.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

Are you expecting calls from 97? A4? AK?

He's a good player.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

The only reason that I wouldn't raise here would be that if I show that I'm not raising top two on the river in this spot, I'd be able to bluff him off any river I feel like unless he has the nuts. That just doesn't seem worth the extra $1K you could make here.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

Depending on how tricky the opponent is, I think I might just call. The thing is that he can be almost positive you are not checking 56 on the turn. As a result, the only hand he really fears is AA, and even then if he comes over the top you really aren't beating anything but a bluff and might lay it down.

If he is not capable of coming over the top with any two, I'd raise it maybe $650-800 more. Enough so that it could appear to him you are bluff-raising.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

i like the turn check. I'd raise river to 1200-1600 and fold if he comes back over the top.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

If this hand were reversed, would you call a river raise in this situation with two pair?

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

The reason I don't love the turn check in hindsight is because given his play til now, diamonds look like a reasonable possiblity and if they don't hit, i need to get more value here.

Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
 

Against him yes, against me, no.