Good spot to c/r the river or bet out?
 

I think this has been a missing key to my NL cash game, and that is c/ring the river when I think my opponent will bet a strong hand that I have beat and I'll get him pot stuck into calling. Read on villain is that he is pretty tight, I definitely think he might get cute and check this flop with AK AQ, maybe even KK, which is pretty much all I could put him on with his PFR(also JJ and QQ). Overall pretty solid however, no stats on him but he was on 2 of my tables at the time and hasn't done anything crazy. Oh how I love free cards [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]. Also, does anyone overbet the river in hopes of getting more out of AQ/AK if that is what villain has?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

BB ($263.10)
UTG ($27)
UTG+1 ($73.10)
MP1 ($63)
MP2 ($179.25)
Hero ($267.20)
CO ($413.40)
Button ($87.60)
SB ($104.10)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $2, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $10</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $8.

Flop: ($25) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, CO checks.

Turn: ($25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $18</font>, CO calls $18.

River: ($61) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $40</font>, CO calls $40.

Final Pot: $141

Re: Good spot to c/r the river or bet out?
 

Looks like value betting is doin ya just fine [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Good spot to c/r the river or bet out?
 

You only want to do this if you're sure villain will bet into you when you show weakness. If you have seen him bet when checked to on the river before, this can be a profitable play.

Re: Good spot to c/r the river or bet out?
 

i pot the river. i think if he calls 2/3 pot with KK/QQ/JJ then he'll call a pot bet too. if you check on the river he'll either check behind or bet really small with KK/QQ/JJ and won't call a check raise. you extract more value just by betting.

Re: Good spot to c/r the river or bet out?
 

So you think AK/AQ raises the river anyway after not raising the turn?

Re: Good spot to c/r the river or bet out?
 

If he would have raised the turn then I like the check raise on the river.

As played, I think this hand gets checked down by any holding that doesn't include an A. If he's gonna call, he will probably call a pot-sized bet.

Re: Good spot to c/r the river or bet out?
 

KK, QQ, JJ, TT all bet this flop in position vs 1 checking opponent the vast majority of the time imo. I definitely put him on AK or AQ so I think your options are, 1) check to induce a value bet which you raise, 2) overbet the pot like 70 or 80, 3) push. Checking is dangerous for the 5% of the time he doesn't have an A in this spot but it's definitely an option.

Seeing as he only called your standard river bet I reckon he only had KK/QQ/JJ and I'm suprised he didn't bet the flop w it to find out where he was at.

If this is the case you may note him as passive imo.

Re: Good spot to c/r the river or bet out?
 

Good spot to lead. If he has an A and was playing it slow, he'll raise anyway, if he has a mid PP he'll check often and won't call a check/raise anyway.

Re: Good spot to c/r the river or bet out?
 

Definitely lead the turn and river. But I think you missed a bit of value here. If he's calling you on the turn, he's calling a reasonable bet on the river. If he's calling $18 on the turn, he'll call $20-$22. If he calls those, you're reasonable river bet can be larger as the pot is larger. You probably missed a good 6 BB's of value in this hand at least.

Re: Good spot to c/r the river or bet out?
 

Yea the more I think about this hand, the more I think I should have bet AT LEAST the pot on the river. I was pretty sure he had AQ/AK and was getting cute, and those are calling a big bet and maybe even raising it. My donkey tourny mindset kept on telling me to get what I could from a pair though. Relearning this game is fun though.

Results - I was shocked when he just called and flipped up AK, oh well. Noted as weak-tight FPS boy and moved on.