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-   -   Fold AKs, Hand from 40k Gaur Tricky hand (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=408135)

Crispy 12-31-2005 04:04 AM

Fold AKs, Hand from 40k Gaur Tricky hand
 
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t8000 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

CO (t92052)
Button (t133649)
Hero (t105364)
BB (t100473)
UTG (t61606)
UTG+1 (t189802)
MP1 (t231290)
MP2 (t20232)
MP3 (t213293)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to t24000</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t56000</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t104964</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 folds, Button calls t48964.

Flop: (t236328) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Turn: (t236328) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t236328) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t236328

My read on the villan who reraised was that he was a general calling station. I have seen him limp marginal hands like KJo UTG and call 3XBB raises and check/fold flops. SO this had me thinking, if he is reraising a reraise he has to have at least QQ IMO. At least from my experience with this player. However given my stack size, im finding it hard how I can fold. So given that we are at 75% facing QQ,KK,AA,AK, what do i do here?

Matador225 12-31-2005 04:10 AM

Re: Fold AKs, Hand from 40k Gaur Tricky hand
 
Your not looking at AA-QQ or AK 75% of the time. In fact its considerably less. Villain could have thought MP3 was stealing and decided something like AJ was good for a reraise. I would say villain's actual range is something like TT-JJ, AK-AT, but I wasn't at the table. If you had been playing at his table for awhile and this was the first hand you saw him reraise with I might be a lot more worried. Hard for me to give advice without specific reads on villain and MP3. If MP3 has been very aggressive from LP lately the probability that villain has a monster decreases dramatically. If he has been playing solid I would be in for a tough decision.

Crispy 12-31-2005 04:13 AM

Re: Fold AKs, Hand from 40k Gaur Tricky hand
 
Thats one of the things though, this was the first time I had seen him reraise someone. My only remaining concerns is that playing this tournament to win, this should be a hand I want to risk it on if I want to get to the final.

Matador225 12-31-2005 04:14 AM

Re: Fold AKs, Hand from 40k Gaur Tricky hand
 
How long had you been at his table?

Crispy 12-31-2005 04:15 AM

Re: Fold AKs, Hand from 40k Gaur Tricky hand
 
I have played with this villan for 2 hrs.

Matador225 12-31-2005 04:33 AM

Re: Fold AKs, Hand from 40k Gaur Tricky hand
 
If you had been playing with him for 2 hours and he hadn't come over the top of anyone one time I might find a way to let it go.

12-31-2005 12:22 PM

Re: Fold AKs, Hand from 40k Gaur Tricky hand
 
AKs is pretty cards, but with a solid read on Villain this is a tricky spot. The real question is, can you find a better one? How often had the players to your left been defending their blinds? Had you generally gotten away with stealing? Have pushes from short stacks been called liberally at the table so far? If it's a tough table to steal from, I might go ahead and stick it in there now, hoping for the best. But I think it's a marginal spot, so if you're confident you'll have other opportunities AND you are very confident in your read, I think you can let it go.


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