Warning: Do not view hand on an empty stomach.
 

I meant that. This hand will make you vomit. Don't say I didn't warn you.

I have only 30 hands on the guy and he's statistically a LAG, but in thta time he's won twice with AKo and once with KQo so he's probably more running hot than truly laggy. He's aggro postflop, but again the cards are running over him so it's hard to make a judgement.

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 caps</font>, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (14.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 15.75 BB

You can throw up now. Pax paid me to say that he was infuriated by this; hell I was so pissed at myself I left the table immideately afterwards convinced that I was tilting.

Three hours of brooding over it, however, is starting to push it towards at best an EV-neutral situation. The guy capped preflop, and at least on Stars that generally means strictly AA-JJ or AK. AK is unlikely since there's no reason for him to raise the turn. If I can actually narrow him down to strictly AA-JJ then, suprisingly enough, I can't call: My only hope is to split, so after the 15BB rake I'm looking at 10:1 odds of getting money, while the pot odds are only about 1:7.6.

And yet my stomach is still heaving: I know this is a bad fold. So what's making up the difference? Would you expect to see AQs often enough here? I hardly ever see a capped AQs here (and the villain didn't cap with AKo earlier FWIW), so it would be awfully surprising to see; AJs even moreso. What am I missing here? Why is this a call?

Re: Warning: Do not view hand on an empty stomach.
 

For me, it all boils down to what kind of range we can narrow villain down to.

-Super Tight/Passive (AA-JJ) - 5% equity FOLD
-Tight/Aggressive way too excited about top pair (AA-JJ,AQs) - 13.6% equity CALL
-Semi Loose/Aggressive way too excited about being in the hand (JJ+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo) - 50% equity EASY CALL

Really the only way I can get away from this is if I know villain only plays AA-JJ like this, and I just don't have that kind of read on him. I think we'll see a misguided AQ, AJ, or worse here enough to call.

Re: Warning: Do not view hand on an empty stomach.
 

I know that I would call - however, you do raise some valid points, and my call might just curiousity talking (and because over the last three weeks I've been playing at the Hustler where I'd win a bonus for having my aces cracked - lol).

That being said - i'd be hard pressed to think that aces aren't good one in sixteen...with only 30 hands on villain I don't think that you can rule out him capping with AQs, even if he didn't cap with AKo. Low limit players LUVVVV their suited cards.

Can you let us know what villain had after you get a few reponses?

Re: Warning: Do not view hand on an empty stomach.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Can you let us know what villain had after you get a few reponses?

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately not--I didn't pay a buck to see [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Warning: Do not view hand on an empty stomach.
 

It's one to me and the pot is big. I call expecting to lose.

Re: Warning: Do not view hand on an empty stomach.
 

I think I'd call mostly just to see if he slowplayed a set of queens, got lucky on the turn with JJ, or played KK strange and got lucky on the river (and tell myself that there's a slight chance I might be good here the tiny fraction of the time to make a call).

Re: Warning: Do not view hand on an empty stomach.
 

I'd call the river here just to see what he had. I wouldn't be expecting to win this hand at all though. Maybe it's a leak in my game, but the curiousity at what he had would just eat away at me. So it would definately be worth the $1 just to see.

Re: Warning: Do not view hand on an empty stomach.
 

That river actually made me lol. No joke. Then again, i'm kinda drunk.

Re: Warning: Do not view hand on an empty stomach.
 

Im not sure if its +EV to call or not, but for the sake of my sanity, i make this call everytime.

Re: Warning: Do not view hand on an empty stomach.
 

Given your LAG read, I think I call the river.