30-60 River Decision
 

Hawaiian Gardens the other night. I had AKo in the cutoff and raised behind one EP limper, and the SB and EP called. Flop was A T 5 rainbow. SB bet, EP called, I raised and only the SB called. Turn was another 5 and the SB bet. I only called. River was a 2 offsuit and the SB bet, and I went into the tank (well, about 10 seconds, which is the tank in limit). Should I have called?

The SB is a generally solid player, fairly tight, somewhat aggressive, and who bluffs occasionally -- what I consider a "typical" player. After the hand I conducted an instant verbal poll of the table and four respondants said basically "you have to call." No one said a fold was correct.

Were they right? Questionable laydowns on the river are not the way to go, but was this situation really that questionable?

Thoughts appreciated.

Sparks

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

i thought the question was going to be whether you should raise the river.

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

i think raising is better than folding, but calling is probably best, no you cant fold here, easy call

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

please go here

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

Nah man, stay here.

Raise the river.

Never fold.

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think raising is better than folding, but calling is probably best, no you cant fold here, easy call

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would I consider a raise here? You think he plays his hand like that with AQ or AJ? I don't.

Sparks

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

The fold is absurd online. It's not online, but I still think it would be a bad fold.

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
The fold is absurd online. It's not online, but I still think it would be a bad fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting. The difference between online and live, all rolled up in a nutshell.

As far as the live game situation, I was staring right at him, knew how he played (a typical player), and basically there was only one hand he could have, and it was better than mine. In my head I said there was a 90% chance he had that hand, so a fold was actually correct in this case.

In the actual hand, I said "I know I'm beat, you have thus and so." Then called. And lost.

Sparks

What happened to the Live At the Bike 30 game? They killed it.

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

Do not play 30/60 online. You will lose a lot of money.

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

What hand range do you put him on that makes calling the turn and folding the river correct?

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
What hand range do you put him on that makes calling the turn and folding the river correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

When he bet the turn, I'm very sure he has AT. If folding the river was tough, folding the turn was even more difficult, if even correct. I did have 3 outs on the turn. Once I called the turn, and he bet the river, I was 90% sure he had AT (the only hand he could have, really) but just could not lay it down. Calling the river, to me, was a clear mistake.

The 2+2 responses have been "call the river", "call the river" and "go to the small stakes forum."

Nice.

Sparks

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

Wouldn't opponent play something like AQ or AJ the same way here possibly? He bets the flop b/c he has aces, you raise, he get's worried or whatever and calls. Then the 5's pair...hmmm, maybe he'll give me a 5 or well, maybe my ace is good anyway. I bet. Ok, he just calls. Well, he probably won't raise the river here even with AK cause he'll fear I have the A10 or whatever. So I'll just bet again in case he has KK or something.

Now, if you're saying this opponent would NEVER do this, then ok. You are talking about a player specific read and your inability to act on it, not the hand itself. So possibly...psychology forum might be better?

Jeff

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]

The 2+2 responses have been "call the river", "call the river" and "go to the small stakes forum."

Nice.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ooh, you're not gonna like this one bit: Call the river.

Whatever reasons you give for your call on the turn (ie, "It was just a bad call"), what the call shows is that even you don't really have faith in this read you say you have. If your read isn't strong enough to fold the turn, it sure isn't strong enough to fold the river when the pot is two bets bigger and the board cards haven't gotten any uglier. Therefore, call the river.

I don't see folding the river without a super read. If you had a super read, you wouldn't have evev seen the river. Ergo, you don't have a super read. QED, E. Pluribus Unum, Vox Populi, 10-4, over and out. Call the river.

SpaceAce

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

If you were going to read strength into his trying to keep EP in, and then betting the turn when he loses EP, you have to make the fold on the turn. On the river, you are getting more than double the price and you haven't narrowed his hand range.

Maybe if Gino had the look I would fold the turn, but turn donkbets are not generally strength so I would get to showdown against 95% of people.

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

The other posters are right, considering folding this river is just silly. All he did was donk turn and bet river. Its limit holdem, you have TP/TK, headsup, the board is non-threatening. Call.

Also his line is a bit strange for a guy who has you beat. This is sort of the Ed Miller if its weird, he is weak or very strong and pot odds dictate a call in case he is weak (sort of, this is an easy call regardless) but I am sure you'll agree that most players would three-bet flop or check-raise turn with top two, so unless you are playing mikel who is waiting for you to raise the turn (which most 2+2ers would I suspect) so he can 3 bet you, then its just a strange move.

This may not apply with this guy, but many cannot resist donking the turn when the board pairs. Even when it should be obvious that you aren't folding and they don't have it. Other guys habitually donk it when you raise the flop in a "free card" type manner when last to act after some callers. Even when it should be obvious you aren't drawing since there are no draws. They just think, he wants a free card, I'll stop n go like I always do with my pair.

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

I don't know what happened to L@TB 30/60, I guess it was just too boring to watch. I don't live in LA now anymore (at least for a few months) anyway, so it doesn't matter to me.

Many/most of the responses are good. However, it's advice coming from players describing online conditions.

I have put in a lot of hours both online and in so cal mid limits, and i have to say that the meaning of the turn donk is a lot different in a typical live 30/60 game than a 30/60 online game.

In short, the live play donk is much more honest than the online donk.

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
EP called...

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just curious with this a bit. Did EP drop out on the flop or the turn?

Also, I'm curious why no one is advocating a turn raise here. The 5 was a beautiful card for your hand.

You mentioned AT being a strong possibility. AT doesn't make sense as SB would probably 3-bet the flop being an aggressive player.

[ QUOTE ]
Once I called the turn, and he bet the river, I was 90% sure he had AT (the only hand he could have, really) but just could not lay it down. Calling the river, to me, was a clear mistake

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
When he bet the turn, I'm very sure he has AT.

[/ QUOTE ]

However, it is your read. If we go with that and you were *that* sure he had AT, then it's much, much better to fold the turn than it is to call the turn and fold the river.

As it plays out, you must call the river. Not only do you have a very strong hand that I think you didn't play strongly enough. If you fold the river, you're setting yourself up to get run over in the future.

Garland

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
However, it is your read. If we go with that and you were *that* sure he had AT, then it's much, much better to fold the turn than it is to call the turn and fold the river.

As it plays out, you must call the river. Not only do you have a very strong hand that I think you didn't play strongly enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not so sure. Although I had a strong read when he bet the turn, a fold didn't seem right, with a card to come. And a raise would be the worst play. Why would I raise into a hand that has me beat, with a non-threatening board? He either calls, then checks (or bets) the river, or, he 3-bets me right there, and I have to lay it down without a chance of catching on the river. Regardless, I did call the turn, and when he bets the river, I now have a very strong read (90%), which is the whole point of this post. He simply has to have AT. There is no other hand that would make much sense.

As geormet has said, it's probably just the difference between live and online play. Online, I agree, it's a quick call on the river. But this live situation is a very specific hand-reading exercise.

While there are several analyses of AQ, and "donk turn bet" (whatever that is) and such, I'm more of the school of simplicity, seeing the hand and the betting for what it is, and not over-thinking it. I raised PF and on the flop, and this typical player bet into me on the turn. I'm almost surely beat, and that's the end of it. A call on the river is incorrect. To recommend calling the river is just a game theory answer, and is missing, I think, the nature of this particular hand. Still, the responses now with their analysis (even if I disagree), are helpful. Thanks.

Sparks

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
You are talking about a player specific read and your inability to act on it, not the hand itself. So possibly...psychology forum might be better?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not a bad point. Seriously. I showed my hand, said "I know what you have," then called.

I may have issues.

Sparks

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
Although I had a strong read when he bet the turn, a fold didn't seem right, with a card to come.

[/ QUOTE ]

With a read that strong, a turn fold then becomes absolutely correct. With 6.5 big bets on the turn (assuming EP dropped out on the flop), you are asked to call 7.5:1 when you *know* you only have 3 outs (44:3 or 14.6:1 pot odds). Compound this with the possibility you are wrong and he could have a boat, and you are drawing dead part of the time. These are horrible odds knowing what you know even if you feel you're going to get 2 more big bets on the river if you catch a K.

Just my general feeling from this hand. You're playing scared poker. Playing no limit for about two years has made me appreciate strong, but not super strong limit hands like TPTK and how aggression is the key to this game.

If you have a strong read or tell on the turn that only you are privy to knowing, fine. Just fold the turn and be done with it. However, if you're calling the turn, you absolutely must call the river. Don't contradict yourself by calling the turn and folding the river.

Yes, you were right in this case, but by the river, you only have to have a winner 1 in 9 times to make the call correct. Odds I'll take any day with your hand.

Garland

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
However, if you're calling the turn, you absolutely must call the river. Don't contradict yourself by calling the turn and folding the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
Huh? If the turn call was a mistake (and it may have been), then compound it by calling the river? I had a good read going into the turn, and a very solid read on the river given his bet. Why in the hell would I call the river?


[ QUOTE ]
by the river, you only have to have a winner 1 in 9 times to make the call correct. Odds I'll take any day with your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm 1 in 9 at best, probably more like 1 in 20. I don't like my odds. I should have folded.

Sparks

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

Call. It's not even close. You're getting 9-1 and I think he doesn't have a five about 20% of the time.

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

I call the river just because you don't want other players to start doing tricky plays against you on the river thinking you can fold a hand. It's just asking them to play better against you and try and bluff you out of hands since they know you can lay down a good hand. And I wouldn't have said anything to him, its not a hand reading contest its a poker game, don't let your oppoenent's know anything they don't have to.

i like your preflop reraise as well.

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
To recommend calling the river is just a game theory answer, and is missing, I think, the nature of this particular hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding the river is a very bad standard play given this board and action.

When you ask a question like this, we can't read your mind. We just go off the info you post. There's no way for us to take into account the strength of your read. If you're so sure you're beaten because you were there and we weren't, then don't expect to get advice of any value. Just trust your read.

That said, no matter your read, calling the turn and folding the river still makes no sense to me.

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

Is there a chance anyone ever should fold here? Other than maybe Tommy, on one of his expert reads where "The guy paused, blinked twice, pretended like he was looking for the waitress, then tossed his chips in with the ever so slightly forcefullness of (fill in your own blank here)"?

Of course he'd be right. But that's besides the point. Who folds there?

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

just ignore that line at the bottom was supposed to be for another post

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think raising is better than folding, but calling is probably best, no you cant fold here, easy call

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would I consider a raise here? You think he plays his hand like that with AQ or AJ? I don't.

Sparks

[/ QUOTE ]

I see no reason for a raise and I call the River the majority of the time, as you cannot let them play at you. However, an occassional fold, when your instincts tell you it's the right move, is not bad. Even if it was a bluff, you now will get played at and folds in this type situation are no longer an option the rest of the session.
If you are getting your share of cards, you should make it up later.
There is a big difference between live & on-line play. On-line, this is an unquestionable call, unless you are playing 1 table and know your opponent really well.

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The fold is absurd online. It's not online, but I still think it would be a bad fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting. The difference between online and live, all rolled up in a nutshell.

As far as the live game situation, I was staring right at him, knew how he played (a typical player), and basically there was only one hand he could have, and it was better than mine. In my head I said there was a 90% chance he had that hand, so a fold was actually correct in this case.

In the actual hand, I said "I know I'm beat, you have thus and so." Then called. And lost.

Sparks

What happened to the Live At the Bike 30 game? They killed it.

[/ QUOTE ]

And, when you're A+ game saves you a bet, as it did here, advertising the fact that you are on top of your game, as you did here, is a -EV move. Wait to feed your Ego after the session.

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do not play 30/60 online. You will lose a lot of money.

[/ QUOTE ]

The original post has absolutely nothing to do with on-line play.
The difference between playing on-line and live, is the same as a pilot handling an emergency in a simulator (on-line) or under live conditions.

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You are talking about a player specific read and your inability to act on it, not the hand itself. So possibly...psychology forum might be better?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not a bad point. Seriously. I showed my hand, said "I know what you have," then called.

I may have issues.

Sparks

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought you folded.....This announcement was worse than folding and announcing you know your beat. You gave up information about yourself and your current mental state, free of charge.

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The 2+2 responses have been "call the river", "call the river" and "go to the small stakes forum."

Nice.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ooh, you're not gonna like this one bit: Call the river.

Whatever reasons you give for your call on the turn (ie, "It was just a bad call"), what the call shows is that even you don't really have faith in this read you say you have. If your read isn't strong enough to fold the turn, it sure isn't strong enough to fold the river when the pot is two bets bigger and the board cards haven't gotten any uglier. Therefore, call the river.

I don't see folding the river without a super read. If you had a super read, you wouldn't have evev seen the river. Ergo, you don't have a super read. QED, E. Pluribus Unum, Vox Populi, 10-4, over and out. Call the river.

SpaceAce

[/ QUOTE ]

The dark side of this thread.........he did have a "super-read" and did not act on it. That is what is so much more fullfilling about live play: Studying your player while not in a hand, getting inside their heads, picking up their betting patterns and the level of aggressiveness, maybe a tell or two, and then: Saving bets based upon the information you gained from your hard work. That is what live poker is all about.

When I go home from a six hour session, having saved a few BB's by not making calls, or earned a few extra by playing a player just right, well, that puts as big a smile on my face as my overall win.

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
........ the live play donk is much more honest than the online donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

Finally! Of course it is, as the player isn't sitting at his computer saying: "Take this, punk...Oh, you called?! Well here's another barrel, can you handle that? Ok, then, watch me punch you again on the River!"

HUGE difference playing poker at a table in front of 9 other players.......REAL HUGE.

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
EP called...

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just curious with this a bit. Did EP drop out on the flop or the turn?

Also, I'm curious why no one is advocating a turn raise here. The 5 was a beautiful card for your hand.

You mentioned AT being a strong possibility. AT doesn't make sense as SB would probably 3-bet the flop being an aggressive player.

[ QUOTE ]
Once I called the turn, and he bet the river, I was 90% sure he had AT (the only hand he could have, really) but just could not lay it down. Calling the river, to me, was a clear mistake

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
When he bet the turn, I'm very sure he has AT.

[/ QUOTE ]

However, it is your read. If we go with that and you were *that* sure he had AT, then it's much, much better to fold the turn than it is to call the turn and fold the river.

As it plays out, you must call the river. Not only do you have a very strong hand that I think you didn't play strongly enough. If you fold the river, you're setting yourself up to get run over in the future.

Garland

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe this was a case of the: "I can't laydown a monster holding, even though I have a perfect read" syndrome.

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
I call the river just because you don't want other players to start doing tricky plays against you on the river thinking you can fold a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the problem: He can't fold a hand. And, folding a hand when you have a great read; if it leads others to believe you're capable of folding and they start playing back at you, well, that's great! An added bonus.

[ QUOTE ]
It's just asking them to play better against you and try and bluff you out of hands since they know you can lay down a good hand. And I wouldn't have said anything to him, its not a hand reading contest its a poker game, don't let your oppoenent's know anything they don't have to.

[/ QUOTE ]

We want the players to come after us, and your other comment is so correct.....I hope the OP understands the gravity behind it.

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do not play 30/60 online. You will lose a lot of money.

[/ QUOTE ]

The original post has absolutely nothing to do with on-line play.
The difference between playing on-line and live, is the same as a pilot handling an emergency in a simulator (on-line) or under live conditions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Poor anology

Pilot in simulator = no passengers (not real, anyway)
Pilot in air = real passengers

Whereas
Online poker = real money
Live poker = real money too

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
After the hand I conducted an instant verbal poll of the table and four respondants said basically "you have to call." No one said a fold was correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

I find it ridiculous that you would do this. Wtf are you conducting table polls for in order to figure out the best decision?

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

Moderater, for the love of God, please lock this thread.

Sparks

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

Why should the thread be locked? And why would you want to poll the table and give an indication that you consider making big laydowns few of them ever would? Good way to have them work in extra bets against you later.

Jeff

Re: 30-60 River Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do not play 30/60 online. You will lose a lot of money.

[/ QUOTE ]

The original post has absolutely nothing to do with on-line play.
The difference between playing on-line and live, is the same as a pilot handling an emergency in a simulator (on-line) or under live conditions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Poor anology

Pilot in simulator = no passengers (not real, anyway)
Pilot in air = real passengers

Whereas
Online poker = real money
Live poker = real money too

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. But the pilot is in the simulator for recertification so that he can keep his commercial rating and make 80K a year flying for whomever.