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-   -   Charting Chip Count - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=342846)

justT 09-23-2005 02:32 PM

Charting Chip Count - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
 
A few weeks ago Jurollo asked if it was possible to build a macro that would pull chipcount out of a tourney and chart it. I build a prototype in Excel and charted some tourneys. The tourneys in the charts below are from deep finishes (three of them are 1st's and 2nd's, the other is a 13th out of 2300). The black line is a trendline which has no real significance other than to make it easier to compare the two charts.

"The Good" - two tourneys from a good player
http://images5.theimagehosting.com/TheGood.1.th.JPG

"The Bad" - two tourneys from a bad player (guess who)
http://images5.theimagehosting.com/TheBad.1.th.JPG

Note: the chip counts are on a log scale so a % change will be the same length regardless of its starting point. (i.e. if a double up from 1000 to 2000 is a half inch step, then a double up from any other starting chip count will also be a half inch step)

Things to notice:
1) the good player starts quickly (doubled his stack in the first 50 hands), while the bad player starts slowly

2) the good player is constantly acquiring chips (the orange line is really good) and doing so at relatively low risk (very few big jumps or falls). By comparison, the bad player's chip accumulation is dependent on winning the big hands (lots of big jumps and falls).

I'll add "The Ugly" later, sorry for the false advertising.

justT 09-24-2005 05:11 PM

Re: Charting Chip Count - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
 
Okay, I promised some ugly. $20 Party tourney, chart shows 30 bubble hands. Villain's chip count is the red line, Hero's is green.

http://images5.theimagehosting.com/TheUgly.th.JPG

Villain had just joined the table, and completely owned the bubble, going from 7K to 23K. Hero went from 6K to 8K. Villain later used those chips to make things quite difficult for Hero.

Tourney results: Hero finished 21st, Villian is currently chip leader with only 4 players remaining.

Edit: Villain finished 3rd and banked $1300, Hero banked $99.


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