DOTTT\'s 2005 NFL pick thread
 

I’ll be using a system I developed to bet football this season, however it doesn’t start making plays until week 3. I still like some of this weeks lines so I’ll venture out on my own. My bankroll is $10,000 and I’ll be placing 5% of my roll on every game. I know, I know there's a good chance I’ll go broke but gambol has always been in me so I’m willing to take the risk in hopes of maximizing my profits. I’ll post every bet I make in hopes of learning from mistakes, and getting better at this. So here goes.

Detroit –1 at Chicago

You can get this at –111 right now on Pinnacle.

Risking $500 to win $445

Chargers –3 at Broncos

Right now the most avaliable line is at –120 in most places.

Risking $500 to win $400

Re: DOTTT\'s 2005 NFL pick thread
 

Jesus, your system vig takes into account? Good luck overcoming that.

Re: DOTTT\'s 2005 NFL pick thread
 

That should be Chargers +3.

Atlanta pk at Seattle

I'm taking the Falcons here. The only explnation I have for this line is that the Seahawks have played the falcons historically well. Winning 4 of their last 5 meetings. However, most of these games were pre Michael Vick, and I think the Seahawks speed challanged defense is gonna have a hard time stopping him. Also IMO the Seahawks are the team to fade this year.

Risking $500 to win $525

Re: DOTTT\'s 2005 NFL pick thread
 

Also taking the Rams at +1 over the Cardinals.

This is mostly a play on a good trend that involves taking a team that was a favorite by 6+ points, which lost SU but outgained their opponet in total yards by 100+. The Rams outagined the 9ers in total yards by almost a two to one margin. If it wasn't for their horrible special teams unit, they win this game. I look for the Rams to get things togather in week 2.

Risking $500 to win $500.

Re: DOTTT\'s 2005 NFL pick thread
 

Adding Raiders/Chiefs under 54.5.

Risking $500 to win $450.

Also I only see this line avaliable on mybookie.

Re: DOTTT\'s 2005 NFL pick thread
 

Bodog also has that line

Re: DOTTT\'s 2005 NFL pick thread
 

WSEX too.

Lori

Re: DOTTT\'s 2005 NFL pick thread
 

YTD: 2-2-1
BR: $9950

Re: DOTTT\'s 2005 NFL pick thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is mostly a play on a good trend that involves taking a team that was a favorite by 6+ points, which lost SU but outgained their opponet in total yards by 100+.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems like a good trend, but any idea how often it occurs?

Re: DOTTT\'s 2005 NFL pick thread
 

what is SU?

Re: DOTTT\'s 2005 NFL pick thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
what is SU?

[/ QUOTE ]

Straight up

Re: DOTTT\'s 2005 NFL pick thread
 

Over the past 10 years it has occured only 19 times, 20 after yesterday. It's record now stands at 18-2.

Re: DOTTT\'s 2005 NFL pick thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Over the past 10 years it has occured only 19 times, 20 after yesterday. It's record now stands at 18-2.

[/ QUOTE ]
wow... that is quite a stat. where does one come up with such gems?

FishNChips

Re: DOTTT\'s 2005 NFL pick thread
 

Indeed, im new, but I'm very interested in this. Where do you get your data? I have a few trends I want to look for too.

Re: DOTTT\'s 2005 NFL pick thread
 

I use this software

(Note: It's free, and I'm not associated with it in any way)

So far, I've only used it to get historical spreads, but I think you can get statistics from the games as well.

(Note #2: It took me quite a bit of work to get the data in a useable format...I had to enter all of it into excel before I could do anything with it)

Re: DOTTT\'s 2005 NFL pick thread
 

I used a couple of data bases. The one mentioned by the previous poster looks good. Then it just about formatting it in a way you can use.

Week 3 Picks
 

Finally, I get a chance to put this baby to work. Lets see how it does.

1. Panthers -3 Risking $500 to win $450
2. Saints +4 Risking $500 to win $440
3. Bears +3 Risking $500 to win $450
4. Steelers -3 Risking $500 to win $465
5. Giants +6 Risking $500 to win $470

Re: Week 3 Picks
 

What system/formula/line-of-thought did u use to get those?

Re: Week 3 Picks
 

Basic description

Re: Week 3 Picks
 

Yuck.

YTD 2-7-1

BR: $7450

Week 4 picks
 

Falcons -5.5 risking $375 to win $356.25
Buccaners -6.5 risking $375 to win $367.5
Titans +7 risking $375 to win $352.50
Patriots -5 risking $375 to win $367.5

Might have a couple of late games to add.

Re: Week 4 picks
 

YTD 3-11-1

BR: $6681

Week 5 Picks
 

Dolphins +3 Risking $334 to win $300.60.
Pantehers -2.5 Risking $334 to win $324.
Redskins +7 Risking $334 to win $300.60.

Re: Week 5 Picks
 

No faith in the home crowds this week?

Re: Week 5 Picks
 

The system likes the Jaquars, I'm just waiting for a good price.

Re: Week 5 Picks
 

Adding:
Browns -2.5 Risking $334 to win $309.28

Re: Week 5 Picks
 

Jaguars -3 Risking $334 to win $309.28

Re: Week 5 Picks
 

YTD: 6-12-2

BR: $7280

Week 6 Picks
 

Lots of plays this week. Looks like do or die for the season.

Saints +5.5 Risking $364 to win $364
Panthers +1 Risking $364 to win $372
Titans +3 Risking $364 to win $327.60
Jaguars -3 Risking $364 to win $378
Dolphins +4.5 Risking $364 to win $327.6
Bills -3 Risking $364 to win $306
Raiders +2 Risking $364 to win $356
Rams +13.5 Risking $364 to win $345.8
Browns +6 Risking $364 to win $353

Re: Week 6 Picks
 

YTD: 10-17-2

BR: $6880

Week 8 Picks
 

No plays last week. Five so far for this week.

1. Vikings +7.5 Risking $344 to win $310
2. Packers +9.5 Risking $344 to win $337
3. Chiers +6 Risking $344 to win $322
4. Bills +9 Risking $344 to win $310
5. Giants -2 Risking $344 to win $352

Re: Week 8 Picks
 

YTD: 13-19-2

BR: $7191

Re: Week 8 Picks
 

I posted week 9 picks, but I guess I dindnt hit the post button. Anyway for the offical record I had the Browns and the Jets.

The offical plays were
Browns +3 Risking $360 to win $396
Jets +6 Risking $360 to win $349.2

Re: Week 8 Picks
 

YTD: 15-19-2

BR: $7936

Week 10 Picks
 

Raiders +3 Risking $400 to win $380
Bills -2.5 Risking $400 to win $388
Texans +17.5 Risking $400 to win $376

Re: Week 8 Picks
 

YTD: 17-20-2

BR: $8300

Week 11 Picks
 

Jaguars -4 Risking $415 to win $410
Colts -5 Risking $415 to win $380
Browns -2 Risking $415 to win $373.50

Adding
 

Vikings +4.5 Risking $415 to win $423
Jets +14 Risking $415 to win $382
Lions +8 Risking $415 to win $373.5

YTD
 

20-23-2

BR:$8231

Week 12 Picks
 

Jaguars -3.5 Risking $410 to win $430.5
Bills +3.5 Risking $410 to win $377
Eagles -4.5 Risking $410 to win $389.5
Texans +3.5 Risking $410 to win $389.5