I think I finally learning
 

I posted a hand a couple of weeks where I checked the river w/Ax high but felt I should have bet b/c my opponent could have had a better A high and folded. This was a similar situation but this time I bet the river. What do you guys think?

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(5 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, Button calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (4.67 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

River: (6.67 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>

Re: I think I finally learning
 

I like. Is this a river bet/fold or bet/call?

Re: I think I finally learning
 

What reads do you have on your opponent?

To be honest, I really don't like this with KQ. I think that is pretty much the exact cutoff hand for most opponents where all better ones will call, and all worse ones will fold with a board like this.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

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I like. Is this a river bet/fold or bet/call?

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why would you ever call this river if he raises you?

True

Re: I think I finally learning
 

Do you usually 3-bet pf with KQo after a limp and a raise?

Re: I think I finally learning
 

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Do you usually 3-bet pf with KQo after a limp and a raise?

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5 handed? 100% of the time.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

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Do you usually 3-bet pf with KQo after a limp and a raise?

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5 handed? 100% of the time.

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Wouldn't it be read dependent?

Re: I think I finally learning
 

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What reads do you have on your opponent?

To be honest, I really don't like this with KQ. I think that is pretty much the exact cutoff hand for most opponents where all better ones will call, and all worse ones will fold with a board like this.

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I'd say that line is at ace-high because many aces will fold here IMO. I like the river, I don't know if we can value 3-bet pf due to the risk of domination OOP.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

No read on my opponent since he just sat down. The 3 bet pf is sometimes my standard play and sometimes not. It depends on how I'm running/feeling.

I'm really trying to focus on my turn and river play most b/c I think its the most interesting part of the hand

Re: I think I finally learning
 

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I think that is pretty much the exact cutoff hand for most opponents where all better ones will call, and all worse ones will fold with a board like this.

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Villain could be raising pf w/ATs, A9s or even a higher Ax like AK, AQ. Do you really think he'll call w/those hands after my play throughout the hand

Re: I think I finally learning
 

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I think that is pretty much the exact cutoff hand for most opponents where all better ones will call, and all worse ones will fold with a board like this.

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Villain could be raising pf w/ATs, A9s or even a higher Ax like AK, AQ. Do you really think he'll call w/those hands after my play throughout the hand

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That is why a read on my opponent would be extremely useful. I think the answer is actually "yes" to a lot of the above. With a lot of opponents who do not play very well, I would not be surprised to see A8 call. A high is basically the nuts on a board like this [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: I think I finally learning
 

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Do you usually 3-bet pf with KQo after a limp and a raise?

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5 handed? 100% of the time.

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Wouldn't it be read dependent?

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Not usually. It's a default play of mine. Sure there are times when I CC with KQ/AJ and there are times when I fold AJ/KQ to a raise but these times are rare and 98% of the time, it's 3 bets with KQ/AJo

Re: I think I finally learning
 

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I don't know if we can value 3-bet pf due to the risk of domination OOP.

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In shorthanded games, the risk of domination is much lower. This is a pretty standard 3-bet against most opponents.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

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I think that is pretty much the exact cutoff hand for most opponents where all better ones will call, and all worse ones will fold with a board like this.

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Villain could be raising pf w/ATs, A9s or even a higher Ax like AK, AQ. Do you really think he'll call w/those hands after my play throughout the hand

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This is very player dep. and IME at 3/6 i get called here by Ax almost always, but some players will fold. If he is reasonable then this is probably +EV.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

I like the river bet by itself, but I think the turn is much more interesting. I don't like it. Look at the board. All PPs are calling. All Aces are calling with the gutshot/overcard outs.

Now I'm trying to think how else to play the hand. Check/calling the turn and bet/folding a river blank doesn't seem like it will ever work. Is firing a turn bet and planning on firing a blank river worth it in a pot this size, given that a PP calls both, A high might call both (AK and AQ almost always will), and his hand might hit? At the same time I don't know if I like giving up.

I'll have to think about it some more. Any reads? That might help.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

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Do you usually 3-bet pf with KQo after a limp and a raise?

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If you're comfortable 3betting AJ, you should definitely be 3betting KQ.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

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I like the river bet by itself, but I think the turn is much more interesting. I don't like it. Look at the board. All PPs are calling. All Aces are calling with the gutshot/overcard outs.

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This is true and part of the reason I posted the hand. I do feel that the turn and river are a combined play b/c one sets up ther other. Many hands that villain will hold will call the turn but fold the river UI. If I give up the lead on the turn I have almost no chance of winning the pot. If the gut shot wasn't there, a case could be made for c/ring the the turn but in this case I don't like that line.

I feel that I could prolly get hands like KJ, KQ, QJs to fold the turn but I'm far ahead of them that it doesn't matter too much if they fold. The real problem is that they can bet the turn and it leaves me in a tough spot for the rest of the hand.

On top of that, if I check the turn, I can't hope to fold hands like Ax on the river

Re: I think I finally learning
 

I understand the dilemna, I just don't know if this pot is worth it given his range, the chances of already being beat and A high calling down anyway. Though you could spike a K or Q I guess.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

The pot is almost 5bbs, thats a pretty decent sized pot

Re: I think I finally learning
 

Hmmm... I'll repost my thoughts in a different way as to why I don't like this river bet. I think you have decent fold equity on the turn from crappy Ax hands, as they don't have odds to draw. The turn bet is good IMO.

On the river, for this bet to be profitable, he has to fold a better hand ~1/7 times. There is also the factor of him calling a worse hand, though that is nearly negligible with most opponents.

With a board like this, he is going to fold a pocket pair never.

He is going to fold AK practically never.

He is going to fold AQ sometimes, but still not too often IMO.

He will fold A7-AJ reasonably often, but definetly not always. If he is going to call a turn bet getting 6:1 with A7-AJ, I think this is often because he plans to go to showdown. On the turn, he should see that he is
1. Drawing dead
2. Dominated by a better A and drawing to 3 outs
3. Behind a PP and likely drawing to 3 outs (sometimes 6, but rarely)
4. Ahead
The only one of those scenarios where is is even close to good enough to call is Ahead. If he was willing to call the turn, there is a high chance that he will call the river. You may want to argue that a lot of players aren't skilled enough to think about a hand in terms of outs like this, however, I think that it is these unskilled types that also like to showdown A high on a raggedy board.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

Scotty,

You're giving 3/6 opponents way too much credit. It doesn't matter to them if they're holding AT and they may be dominated and don't have odds to the gutshot since it'll probably be split. They're seeing the river.

At the same time, your analysis is a little off. Against a pocket pair, they're drawing to 7-10 outs, and it's not THAT rare that they're drawing to 10. I'm assuming OP is playing standard 2+2 numbers, so his 3-bet range is pretty wide. If villain has AQ-AT, he has 10 outs a decent amount of the time.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

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The pot is almost 5bbs, thats a pretty decent sized pot

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But you're almost always investing 2 bets to win it. And since it's a decent size pot, A high's are more likely to call down.

You also get popped some of the time of the turn, too. That's important to note.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

I dont like the 3bet preflop because we are out of position.
I just call and very probably just give up on the flop.

As you 3bet I think it is best to just give up on the turn. On the river I think it is pretty close between c/f and b/f. I honestly don`t think that an ace high that made it to the river will give up very often on a board like this.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

I just call preflop. I guess raising might be better if the limper is known to fold for two more and the button can fold A-high on the flop or turn.

I think your riverbet is fine, there are alot of draws you beat and he may folds Axhh. I think he will call with nonheart aces though, why else call the turn ?

Against some players I valuebet AJ here and do get called by worse Aces.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

Axhh probably raises the flop.

I think if he's going to call non-heart aces, he's probably going to call heart aces, too.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

Dont you think he will be more likely to call the turn because he thinks he is drawing if he holds Axhh ? than AJo ?

Re: I think I finally learning
 

Yes. Logically speaking though, if he's calling the river with AJo, he's calling with AsJs after his flush draw busted, too. That's all.

And like I said, I think he has non-heart aces way more since an Ace high flush draw will almost always raise the flop.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

Looks good to me. You will fold many aces, plus an occasional ragged 2 or 3 from weak tight opponents.

I didn't read your post from a couple weeks ago but I probably don't bet most A's here. Since the button raised PF, presumably you'd only arrive at the river with an ace you were confident showing down against another A, is my thinking.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

I like it. 3bet represents AK or a big pair to most of these guys. Unlikely he connected with the flop with anything other than a flush draw.
Overpair would raise the flop here more often than not. So he's either drawing to overcards or the flush. Set raises the turn. River card didn't help him at all.
Betting the river only needs to fold Ax here &gt; 13% of the time to be +EV.
nh.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

I still don't get why everyone is ignoring the turn. Just because a river bet is +EV in and of itself, that doesn't mean that turn + river is good. It's way more interesting when you analyze the whole hand than when you come out and say
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Betting the river only needs to fold Ax here &gt; 13% of the time to be +EV.


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Re: I think I finally learning
 

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I still don't get why everyone is ignoring the turn. Just because a river bet is +EV in and of itself, that doesn't mean that turn + river is good. It's way more interesting when you analyze the whole hand than when you come out and say
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Betting the river only needs to fold Ax here &gt; 13% of the time to be +EV.


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I do agree with you about the turn, colin; it seems like once we bet the turn, we should bet the river but the turn/river as a whole may be -EV.

The problem, IMO, is that if we continue we're obviously going to need to invest 2BB to win UI a good majority of the time here. If we're going to try to push him off the pot, it seems like bet-bet is the only possible way to do it. So does he fold/do we improve beyond him &gt;1 time in 3? Assuming our king/queen outs usually hold up, in other words does he have and fold a better hand &gt;1 time in ~4?

I don't play 3/6 so I don't know how a typical opponent would play; I'd say at lower levels, an average player isn't folding 1 time in 4 here, so without a read at 0.50/1 or 1/2 I'd probably just give up on the turn. Can someone provide a guess as to if this guy will have and fold an UI ace 1 time in 4 on the river?

Well, I just went back to kidcolin's OP and I've realized I basically just rehashed what he was saying. So I'm bringing nothing to the table. Enjoy!

Re: I think I finally learning
 

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You're giving 3/6 opponents way too much credit. It doesn't matter to them if they're holding AT and they may be dominated and don't have odds to the gutshot since it'll probably be split. They're seeing the river.


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Yes, I know counting outs and making correct calls would be giving them too much credit at this level. They don't know and don't care. That is also why I said that they are going to call the river with Ax UI. They don't actually put you on a hand - they are simply playing their hand and the board. They see a ragged board, and they have the high card - why not call, it's only one bet.

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At the same time, your analysis is a little off. Against a pocket pair, they're drawing to 7-10 outs, and it's not THAT rare that they're drawing to 10.

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The gutshot puts a higher straight on the board, so only A7 would take it.

**RESULTS**
 

I bet he folded. I win [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]. I'm pretty sure he folded A high