NFL Money Line Week?
 

Looking at some games tomorrow and I think I am going to try some money line best with decent payouts. Usually dont mess with money lines, but see some good values tomorrow.

Saints +170 over Bucs. I love the saints here at home. I think the bucs are very overrated and that the saints are more then due for a big "home" win here. Im still not convinced about simms being a decent qb, and think he will not have a good game. Saints coming off a win, granted against the jets, but in the nfl a wins a win and they will bring some momentum into this one. Saints by 7

Bengals +140 over Pitt. I know I am being square with this pick here, but I honestly cannot see the Bengals losing here. Lets face it, the non bengal believers have to start believing. They are a very good team. They put up over 35 points against the colts, and gave them a run for their money. When Pitt played colts, they were terrible. The score did not reflect the game in any way. I think big ben still isnt 100% and that the improved bengals defense will handle them.
Benglals by 3

Rams +140 vs Redskins. Number one: redskins are terrible on turf and will show it in this game. Number 2: Rams have a new quarterback and are riding major momentum from last weeks come from behind win.

Eagles +170 over seattle. No real analysis over this game, just feel like eagles will win this one at home. Mcmahon is decent and the eagles defense will keep them in this game. Alexander wont do much.

Just a thought for tomrorow. Interested in hearing peoples thoughts on this

Re: NFL Money Line Week?
 

I know nothing about how moneylines compare to spreads (like, if you tell me spread is -4.5 I don't know what the fair ML is). That said, I like both the Bengals and Saints this week. I don't dislike the others, I just don't know. Good luck.

Re: NFL Money Line Week?
 

The wizard of odds (www.wizardofodds.com) has written many times that dogs are a better value on the moneyline than they are ATS, so it seems like you're on the right track. the Cinci and StL bets seem kind of public, but I'm on San Fran. on the ML so I shouldn't talk. GL with your picks.

Re: NFL Money Line Week?
 

all of them are pretty solid I think, the one I dont like the most is the Bengals believe it or not but if you bet all 4 I think you will end up up.

Re: NFL Money Line Week?
 

whats the fourth one? Meaning 49ers? I really do liek this game too much because i think the cardinals are very unpredictable. One day they are decent one day they are terrible. i feel more confident with chad johnson and carson palmer then i do with a rookie qb and a no major threat of receivers

Re: NFL Money Line Week?
 

nah heh never bet anything on the niners, i meant the saints, eagles, rams, bengals as you stated but just that I like the Bengals the least. Still though its not bad at that price.

The saints always give division teams all kinds of trouble. Im one of the believers that the rams are horrible but the skins have had trouble on both sides of the ball so not bad at that price with the rams at home. As long as the Eagles feel they are playing for something I think they will still be very tough to beat in philly also.

Id rank them Saints, Eagles, Rams, Bengals.

Re: NFL Money Line Week?
 

I had simalar thinking when I bet on the early games. I got the Cowboys +160 and the Bengals +160.

Re: NFL Money Line Week?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The wizard of odds (www.wizardofodds.com) has written many times that dogs are a better value on the moneyline than they are ATS, so it seems like you're on the right track.

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They do? I was under the impression that the moneyline bet is typically shaded towards the dog. There are not as many people that want to risk $300 to win $100 as there are people willing to risk $100 to win $300 (at least I think).

Re: NFL Money Line Week?
 

In general, risking 300 to win 100 does not appeal to me but I often wonder if I'm missing some great bets due to this fact.

Last year's SuperBowl is an excellent example.

I waivered and waivered and finally passed on laying 7; with good cause as it turned out.

While I didn't see a one-sided game I could not even imagine N.E. losing.

Even without the benefit of hind-sight the Patriots laying 250ish was another great [missed] opportunity.

As to the masses:

Laying 3-1 is not popular among small bettors but taking three or four ML favorites and creating a parlay has always been popular; I think they call such bets "teasers". [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: NFL Money Line Week?
 

[ QUOTE ]


Even without the benefit of hind-sight the Patriots laying 250ish was another great [missed] opportunity.


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I would hope so. 7 point faves win 78% of the time. I'm sure there were other factors in the NE/PHI game but I have no doubt that NE -250 to win was a good bet.