Two Plus Two Older Archives - How not to Play AK?

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- - How not to Play AK? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=401334)

Re: How not to Play AK?

So you're putting him on JJ or TT I presume? Would he play the flop like that with those hands? I'm not sure he would. What if he has AA?

Re: How not to Play AK?

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Hand #2

After check raising me and then capping my flop re-raise I felt it was likely I was up against either AA or KK, but not certain. So I checked behind on the turn assuming he was trying the same ploy. He checked again on the river and I checked behind again. The river is a question mark.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 calls, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 caps, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 folds, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, UTG+1 caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (14.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

River: (14.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

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OK - let me tell you why I think betting the river is wrong. Hopefully somebody will argue with me. We all know that in order to bet the river in last position you have to have the best hand the majority of time (or more than that because you fear the check raise).

There's no possible hand UTG+1 could have played correctly here. In my opinion, the most likely hand is AK. JJ and TT are possible, but no more so than AA. There's no way he's calling with JJ or TT if you bet. The flop action obviously scared him ... the third club and second overcard will terrify him. It's possible he had AA and got scared by the flop action. But if he has AA he's calling your river bet every time.

A river bet is -EV. If I'm wrong, I hope somebody corrects me.

Re: How not to Play AK?

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There's no way he's calling with JJ or TT if you bet.

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The average Party .5/1 unknown will call the river unflinchingly with either of those hands.

I think this is where you're going wrong. You're assuming your opponents have the same calling standards you do and are playing rationally and thoughfully, as you are. You are wrong about this. Villain has already showed that he isn't playing rationally; like you said yourself, no matter what hand he flips over, we already know he misplayed it. Why do you automatically assume that a guy who butchered his hand on either the flop or turn will suddenly wake up and play sanely on the river?

(FWIW, I agree that AK is the most likely hand for villain in the sense that AK has been played the least badly out of villain's possible range. We want to bet the river to grab an extra half-bet from the straggler).

Re: How not to Play AK?

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There's no way he's calling with JJ or TT if you bet.

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The average Party .5/1 unknown will call the river unflinchingly with either of those hands.

I think this is where you're going wrong. You're assuming your opponents have the same calling standards you do and are playing rationally and thoughfully, as you are. You are wrong about this. Villain has already showed that he isn't playing rationally; like you said yourself, no matter what hand he flips over, we already know he misplayed it. Why do you automatically assume that a guy who butchered his hand on either the flop or turn will suddenly wake up and play sanely on the river?

(FWIW, I agree that AK is the most likely hand for villain in the sense that AK has been played the least badly out of villain's possible range. We want to bet the river to grab an extra half-bet from the straggler).

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Sh.it forgot about the straggler. Yes now I'd bet here.

I'm still not convinced heads up. If he has JJ or TT you have to admit that there is some chance he's folding. Especially considering the queen of clubs falling on the river. He got scared by a 7 on the turn, how's he going to react to a Q. I really think that even the most terrible of players is folding JJ or TT most (but probably not all) of the time. But he will almost never fold AA. That's why I'm not ready to say that the majority of the time you bet and get called here you have the best hand.

Again, with the other guy in the hand (which I missed in my last post) I bet this.

Re: How not to Play AK?

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I really think that even the most terrible of players is folding JJ or TT most (but probably not all) of the time.

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Disagree. The most terrible of players is calling this all of the time. The typical PPer is calling this a very decent portion of the time. Heck you could argue the TAG play is to call the river with JJ here. The pot is laying like 15-1 odds.

Re: How not to Play AK?

Believe it or not the man I feared flipped over the Q2 of diamonds. God only knows what the hell he was thinking on the flop.

Re: How not to Play AK?

Oh man. Man oh man. How...

Re: How not to Play AK?

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