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-   -   statistical tests to show that online poker is not rigged (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=395901)

12-12-2005 03:30 PM

Re: statistical tests to show that online poker is not rigged
 
[ QUOTE ]


You're right. I've played hundreds of thousands of hands, and I've seen literally dozens of those "horrific" beats that you speak of, 989:1 (the worst beat possible in holdem) shots hitting. That should NEVER happen. What are the odds of a 989:1 shot hitting!?! It's like a billion to one!

[/ QUOTE ]

That is probaly one of the funniest replies if read in a long while

Mempho 12-12-2005 03:32 PM

Re: statistical tests to show that online poker is not rigged
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What are the odds of a 989:1 shot hitting!?! It's like a billion to one!

The odds are 989:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice article...thanks for the link.

Lee Jones article

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benfranklin 12-12-2005 04:47 PM

Re: Non random flops
 
[ QUOTE ]

On a side note, how often should you see Quads come up? I had quads 3 times one day, and saw a few others. I dont ever recall seeing that many while sitting down playing in a B&M or a home game. Just curious.

[/ QUOTE ]

The concept of seeing something X times in a day does not have significance. You can expect on average to see quads once every XXX hands. You see a lot more hands per hour online, so you can expect to see quads a lot more often online. In a B&M, you might see 30 hands per hour. If you are just playing 2 tables online, you might see 100 hands an hour. If you play for 6 hours, you see 180 hands live, 600 hands online. So you should see quads more than 3 times as often online. That goes up if you play more tables.

Also, you remember seeing quads 3 times in a day because it is so unusual. You don't remember all the days that you never saw quads. Without a database of significant size, reports of incidents like this mean nothing.

12-12-2005 07:45 PM

Re: Non random flops
 
Ever get the feeling you might be able to relate to Chris Columbus when he was trying to explain to a flatlander the error in his (flatlander) thinking?

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

AaronBrown 12-12-2005 11:31 PM

Re: statistical tests to show that online poker is not rigged
 
Thanks for the kind words. I was slow to go to online poker. I don't like online casinos, and it took a little while to figure out the online poker sites were different. Then I was worried about the usual stuff: the site not returning my money, players colluding or hacking the system, software errors. If there had been on-line poker in the days when I played mostly for the money, I certainly would have jumped in; but these days I play for fun; and fun for me is a good high-stakes, in-person game.

I have played some on-line to see what it was like, but I don't think I'll ever get serious about it.

12-13-2005 12:51 AM

Re: statistical tests to show that online poker is not rigged
 
Thank you for the reply. I'd have guessed you were a B&M guy, but curiosity, and your post, caused me to wonder. again, thx


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