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-   -   Pot Odds vs break even odds? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=400915)

theDetroitKid 12-18-2005 07:11 PM

Pot Odds vs break even odds?
 
I remember i heard Phil gordon discussing the difference between Pot Odds vs. Break even odds. He chooses to use breakeven odds. Can somebody clarify how breakeven odds are used and how they differ from pot odds?

thx

soko 12-18-2005 10:35 PM

Re: Pot Odds vs break even odds?
 
This doesn't make any sense.

If your pot odds are exactly equal to your pot odds then you have breakeven odds.

Maybe you misunderstood what he was saying (I have never heard him say what you paraphrased) but you need at least breakeven odds to call or raise.

theDetroitKid 12-18-2005 10:43 PM

Re: Pot Odds vs break even odds?
 
i remember him saying that you should include the money your call will add to the pot when calculating the pot. so say pot is 1000 and there is a 500 bet. your breakeven odds would be 1000(pot)+500(bet)+500(call) = 2000/500 or 4 to 1 breakeven odds.

theDetroitKid 12-18-2005 10:50 PM

Re: Pot Odds vs break even odds?
 
as opposed to 3 to 1 pot odds

AaronBrown 12-18-2005 11:10 PM

Re: Pot Odds vs break even odds?
 
I'm not sure what he meant, but I would interpret it this way.

If there is $100 in the pot and you must put in $20 to call, your pot odds are 5 to 1. If you win, you win five times as much as you lose if you lose. You would take this bet as long as you have at least 1 chance in 6 of winning (ignoring any subsequent betting).

Breakeven odds are the pot odds you need in order to call. Suppose you have a nut four flush on the flop in hold'em, with no pairs on the board. Your chance of getting the flush is 35%. If it will cost you $70 to call, you need $130 in the pot to make it a postive EV bet (actually, with a flush draw your implied pot odds make it worthwhile to call even with less in the pot, but we'll ignore that for now). 13 to 7 are your breakeven odds. If the actual pot odds are better than the breakeven odds, you call.

You should get the same answer doing the calculation either way. I don't know why someone would prefer one to the other.

12-19-2005 12:40 AM

Re: Pot Odds vs break even odds?
 
It is incorrect to include your bet in the pot when calculating pot odds. It's not something extra you win when you win the pot, you simply don't lose it. You are risking the amount of your call for the amount of money in the pot. This also isn't a "choice" you should make, there is simply a right and a wrong way to do the calculation. Maybe if you could link to exactly what he said someone could explain better.

ThinkQuick 12-19-2005 03:24 AM

Re: Pot Odds vs break even odds?
 
ESPN article I can't access

[ QUOTE ]
One of the most mystifying aspects of poker to most amateurs is the concept of pot odds. People are always coming up to me and saying, "Phil, I just don't understand pot odds."

Here's a little secret: The concept of pot odds is useless.

What you need to know is a closely related concept, something I call the "break-even percentage," which is the percentage of the time you need to win to justify calling a bet.


[/ QUOTE ]

My quick search revealed that Gordon has said [censored] like this, but I don't know what exactly he says.

I assume he just presents another way of calculating a pot-odds-equivalent number that he finds easier


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