15/30 QTs flop
 

The cold caller is a super bad 49/7/.57/.96/1.92 and his wtsd is an amazing 50.07%. The 3-bettor is 17.8/10.65/2.84 whose stats are from mining 10/20.

After talking on AIM with some people, I'm receiving mixed signals on the correct line here.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: I am MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">I raise</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, I call, CO calls.

Flop: (10.66 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>

Re: 15/30 QTs flop
 

little early to be raising QTs. As for the flop, I am ok leading or check/calling, but not chk/rzing.

Re: 15/30 QTs flop
 

I think a passive line is best here. I don't think you have enough fold equity in this pot do do much other than check and call.

Re: 15/30 QTs flop
 

Key factors:

1. You're getting to the river here obviously.
2. About half of villain's range is probably made up of pairs that are overpairs to that board and kill many of your pair outs, and those hands are never folding.
3. Some of the time villain has an unpaired big card hand (AK, AQ).
4. Folding out the button's big card hand is not that valuable because of the presence of the cold-caller. Our Q high has little showdown value even against him and so the value of folding the three-bettor is basically just to clean up some pair outs some of the time. (We only get huge benefits by getting him to fold exactly AQ).


The conclusion of all this is that I don't think there's much merit in a super-aggressive line here aimed at trying to buy outs or fold equity. For such a line to be valid, we need to parlay the fact that button does not have an overpair and the fact that this is the 1 out of 2 times where the donkey won't go to showdown.

Since that's no good, getting aggressive here is just likely to cost bets as we're out of position.

So I check-call the flop and check-call the turn.

Re: 15/30 QTs flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
little early to be raising QTs.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, maybe it's a little early for you, but i play probably play alot better than you after the flop... when you analyze a hand i post, remember to pretend you play effing good postflop. thx.

Re: 15/30 QTs flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
little early to be raising QTs.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, maybe it's a little early for you, but i play probably play alot better than you after the flop... when you analyze a hand i post, remember to pretend you play effing good postflop. thx.

[/ QUOTE ]

i like this response.

i say check call all the way and checkraise when you hit your flush.

Re: 15/30 QTs flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
little early to be raising QTs.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, maybe it's a little early for you, but i play probably play alot better than you after the flop... when you analyze a hand i post, remember to pretend you play effing good postflop. thx.

[/ QUOTE ]

i like this response.

i say check call all the way and checkraise when you hit your flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we should be betting the river if we hit the flush on the river. We get the donkey overcall in the middle when we hit, and villain is going to have AK and AQ often enough that the river getting checked through is a very real possibility. I was considering saying that we should check-raise if big cards hit the turn or river as villain is now more likely to have improved his AK or AQ, but the converse of that is that villain is now dangerously likely to check behind hands like TT and JJ.

If the relative position were flipped and our chance of trapping the donkey for single bets twice were higher I might prefer the river check-raise.

If we hit on the turn I think I probably like a check-raise as we're more likely to get action from both opponents on our check-raise and the turn is much less likely to check through.

Re: 15/30 QTs flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
little early to be raising QTs.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, maybe it's a little early for you, but i play probably play alot better than you after the flop... when you analyze a hand i post, remember to pretend you play effing good postflop. thx.

[/ QUOTE ]

i like this response.

i say check call all the way and checkraise when you hit your flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we should be betting the river if we hit the flush on the river. We get the donkey overcall in the middle when we hit, and villain is going to have AK and AQ often enough that the river getting checked through is a very real possibility. I was considering saying that we should check-raise if big cards hit the turn or river as villain is now more likely to have improved his AK or AQ, but the converse of that is that villain is now dangerously likely to check behind hands like TT and JJ.

If the relative position were flipped and our chance of trapping the donkey for single bets twice were higher I might prefer the river check-raise.

If we hit on the turn I think I probably like a check-raise as we're more likely to get action from both opponents on our check-raise and the turn is much less likely to check through.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree. jason should bet when he his his flush.

Re: 15/30 QTs flop
 

trying to push this guy off his hand would be spewing. just use your pot odds to see the river. he ain't folding.

Re: 15/30 QTs flop
 

Put me in with everyone else in that check/calling is best. I dunno if you're really undecided about this but if he's raising &lt; 11% of his hands I doubt AQ is an autoraise there and the board is raggedy enough such that he's rarely folding anything.

Also, I think check/call &gt; check/raise &gt; bet/whatever &gt; check/fold.