M=15, poss. re-steal opp\'y to improve 25%
 

Party Aussie Satellite Qualifier, 1 ticket, 61 of 273 remaining
Seat 1: UTG ( $12005 )
Seat 2: UTG+1 ( $1086 )
Seat 3: MP1 ( $1250 )
Seat 4: MP2 ( $4320 )
Seat 5: MP3 ( $2632 )
Seat 6: CO ( $365 )
Seat 7: BUTTON ( $4155 )
Seat 8: SB ( $11270 )
Seat 9: HERO ( $3465 )
Blinds (75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Xx Xx ]
UTG folds.
UTG+1 folds.
MP1 folds.
MP2 folds.
MP3 folds.
CO folds.
BUTTON raises [525].
SB folds.
HERO

What do you need to push here? My stack is below average, I have a tight image. Button has been pretty active; my one note says he called a 1500 all-in flop bet (half his stack) on a flush draw. I don't have a read as aggro or passive, just busier than one would expect from normal play. This is our first steal situation (but I haven't noticed him pass on any steals either; this could be his first opportunity.)

Re: M=15, poss. re-steal opp\'y to improve 25%
 

its not about the cards. its about wheter or not he will fold.

Re: M=15, poss. re-steal opp\'y to improve 25%
 

something like AJ+ 88+. i'd call A7s+ A9+ KJ+ KTs+ JTs+ 55+. i'm not repushing "cute" hands like 56s that do ok against monsters, cause i think this guy will be calling with mediocre hands like KJ. i want to take big cards against him.

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my one note says he called a 1500 all-in flop bet (half his stack) on a flush draw

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probably a fishy play but not if the pot was big compared to the not.

Re: M=15, poss. re-steal opp\'y to improve 25%
 

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its not about the cards. its about wheter or not he will fold.

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did you get that from "tilt"?

Re: M=15, poss. re-steal opp\'y to improve 25%
 

unfortunately, that's not something that you know within a range of probabilities, so it IS about the cards.

Re: M=15, poss. re-steal opp\'y to improve 25%
 

no, just basic SNG strategy.

maybe i should put this another way... or ask a question. what range of hands do you put button on? how risk adverse is he? you have FE here. I like shoving any 2 in this scenerio

Re: M=15, poss. re-steal opp\'y to improve 25%
 

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[ QUOTE ]
my one note says he called a 1500 all-in flop bet (half his stack) on a flush draw

[/ QUOTE ]

probably a fishy play but not if the pot was big compared to the not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually I remembered that one wrong. I looked up the HH-he stop-n-go'd all-in on the turn, getting 3-2, into a flop over-bettor and caller (two tall stacks) when he landed a flush draw + gutshot with no apparent scare cards on board.

So his range turns out to be quite large and he may be on a pure steal, but of course I pushed T-high junk into his AKs. Caught the T on the door card, but 3rd st. was the K.

My greatest flaw is impatience. The blinds grow, the cards don't come, the blinds won't let me steal from them, I leap at the first possible opportunity. Sucks.

Re: M=15, poss. re-steal opp\'y to improve 25%
 

If I haven't seen villain raise/fold before, I don't reraise here as a bluff, so I probably play it like schwza said.

If I've seen him raise/fold, I push suited connectors as well.