Two Plus Two Older Archives - any 2 can win...

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any 2 can win...

Is there a point where you would call 1 raise from the big blind with literally any 2 cards? Somewhere I thought I had read a discussion on the odds it would take to do that -- I couldn't remember but it seemed pretty unusual to be getting 12.5:1 pre-flop, so I acted really loose and clicked on the call button with my offsuit 2-gapper.

This was a ridiculously loose passive table -- 52% vp$ip and only 1.2% PFR. UTG was an unknown, the two cold callers and the posters were all very LPP (i.e. 50/1/1 or such). That also factored into my call -- if I do hit the miracle flop I've got good relative position on the pre-flop aggressor who will likely lead almost any flop and get several callers.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. MP2 posts a blind of $1.50. CO posts a blind of $1.50.
UTG raises, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 (poster) calls, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button calls, Hero ?

With only 2 outs I have to depend on implied odds to make this call since my immediate pot odds are only 17.5 to 1. If I do catch one of my 3's then it seems reasonable that I can depend on UTG to lead the turn again (after I check) and at least 2 of the LPPs will probably call (since that's what LPPs do...) Does that seem like enough to call this flop?

Is there any reason to raise here? Even though it seems likely I have the best hand right now it would be hard to protect in this huge pot and would be vulnerable to almost any turn and river card.

Re: any 2 can win...

I lead the flop, UTG will probably raise which leads to two situations. MP2, CO, and/or Button calls, giving you enough odds to draw if you are behind. I don't have a clue as to how I would play the turn UI though.

The second situation is you bet out and UTG raises and clears the field. I'm inclined to call down here since you are only behind overpairs.

Re: any 2 can win...

Fold preflop. I don't think it's close either. And yeah, I'd lead the flop hoping UTG raises with overs.

Re: any 2 can win...

First off, I suck. I hate your PF call.
I like your thinking on the flop though. Call me crazy, I raise. I count your fours and threes as full outs--the threes give you the best hand except for any four (I'm betting no one has a four). The four gives you the best hand except for pockets, but if you raise here you should know. Plus, a five improves you hand to an open ended straight draw--I count this as one out. A six improves you hand so I count these as 1.5 (it could also make a hand for someone else). I give you 6.5 outs. Break-even odds are about 6:1, given the pot size you can easily call a raise. Your raise--I think--has a positive expected value in this situation. Plus the raise gives you some momentum to bet out if the turn falls and you hear crickets chirping. However, the turn may force a fold if your hand does not improve. Comments telling me how stupid I am are welcome. Thanks

Re: any 2 can win...

[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop. I don't think it's close either. And yeah, I'd lead the flop hoping UTG raises with overs.

[/ QUOTE ]

LoaferGee is right on the money (as usual!)

Re: any 2 can win...

[ QUOTE ]
Is there a point where you would call 1 raise from the big blind with literally any 2 cards?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope.

Re: any 2 can win...

yeah, I knew it was pretty bad right after I clicked call -- you don't see those kind of odds often in the big blind, but you do get them relatively often in the small blind and I wouldn't complete the SB with that crap...

But, make this 10 handed and have everyone call UTG. Now with the dead post money it's up to 20.5:1, is that enough? What are the odds you would need to call with any 2 cards? or is there no reasonable way to construct such a situation at a normal table?

My original plan had been to check raise the field if I hit the flop hard which is why the check. I agree though, leading the flop makes a lot more sense.

pre-flop and flop were both pretty gross -- one of those hands I was really hoping I wasn't going to have to show at the end... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. MP2 posts a blind of $1.50. CO posts a blind of $1.50.
UTG raises, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 (poster) calls, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button calls, Hero raises, UTG folds, MP2 calls, CO folds, Button calls.

River: (17.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Final Pot: 20.25 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has 3c 6s (full house, threes full of fours).
MP2 has 8h As (two pair, fours and threes).
Button has 8d 5d (two pair, fours and threes).
Outcome: Hero wins 20.25 BB.

Re: any 2 can win...

LOL I hope you added button to the buddy list, calling two bets on the turn and calling the river with 8 high!

Not only that, I think it takes the focus off of how bad your cards were - if I'm watching this hand I'm remembering button, not you.

Re: any 2 can win...

[ QUOTE ]
LOL I hope you added button to the buddy list, calling two bets on the turn and calling the river with 8 high!

[/ QUOTE ]

In fairness, he thought his gutshot was gonna hit on 6th street.

Re: any 2 can win...

you need to be thinking about reverse implied odds. with a hand as weak as 3 6, even when you do catch a piece of the flop you're likely to have a second best hand. even if you do have the best hand you're likely to get outdrawn.

given that you did call, you need to be betting this flop. it's standard hand protection. you want to fold as many overcards as possible. it would be great if UTG raises you with AK or something. given that the bet comes from your immediate left, c/ring this flop does not protect your hand - do you see why?