niner, niner
 

odd hand from tonight -

MP (42/8 stats after ~40 hands) had been confusing me. i had been stealing blinds often, and he had called me on rag flops and bet turns when i checked. unfortunately i had like Q and J high, so i folded. one time i raised KK in the CO, he coldcalled A5o. flop was 552, turn 7, river T and he waited until the river to raise my bet.

SB was really really bad (60/0 after ~18 hands). one hand i played with him, he limped K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and called my pfr (i had QJ). he check called on a A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] flop. i checked through a 6 turn, and we checked a 7 river.


Absolute Poker 1/2 Hold'em (5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, MP checks.

Turn: (5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, SB calls, Hero says, "omg KK" and calls.

River: (11 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls and prays ...

Re: niner, niner
 

The reads you mentioned are not nearly convincing enough to keep me from 3-betting the turn here.

Re: niner, niner
 

[ QUOTE ]
The reads you mentioned are not nearly convincing enough to keep me from 3-betting the turn here.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, is your skirt too tight tonight?

Re: niner, niner
 

I dunno, guys. I might be biased because I've seen this play a fair amount recently, but I think this is pretty decent. I guess it might also be AK, but I don't know if it's AK often enough to 3bet here. Actually, hell, this could very easily be AQ (AJs?), but how often does an 8% PFR 3bet AQ preflop?

Re: niner, niner
 

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno, guys. I might be biased because I've seen this play a fair amount recently, but I think this is pretty decent. I guess it might also be AK, but I don't know if it's AK often enough to 3bet here. Actually, hell, this could very easily be AQ (AJs?), but how often does an 8% PFR 3bet AQ preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think with SB padding, he has AK/AQ often enough to make a 3-bet worthwhile.

Re: niner, niner
 

That's a bad spot to be in on the river. The flop/turn play looks a lot like KK (or maybe AA), though it's not inconceivable that he does this with AK or possibly a worse Ace.

Bah. A raise behind us seems inevitable and I don't want to call it, but I don't think I can bring myself to fold to SBs river donk. I think I call planning for it to be the last money I put into the pot. Hopefully MP overcalls or it's 2 back to me and I don't have to deal with it.

Re: niner, niner
 

I don't have a problem with it. Checking a flopped top set is a pretty donk-standard slowplay.

A hand like AQ is possible, I guess, but would this player check that on the flop versus just two opponents? (I don't know. I'm really asking.)

Re: niner, niner
 

I think you need to 3 bet the turn to tap the SB for another bet.

The river card sucks.

Re: niner, niner
 

yeah I dunno - this could be AJ/AQ here too

but if he's only at raising 8% of the time, his 3-bet range will be pretty tight (AA-TT, AKs, AK)

I probably slow down as well on the turn

Re: niner, niner
 

[ QUOTE ]
but if he's only at raising 8% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you guys really read this much into stats after 40 hands?