Fishy or Bad run?
 

I have posted previously in regards to Party Poker and filling flushes. The numbers I used were off hand written notes, and what responses I received were basically that no one believed me, and thought I was full of crap.

I have had PokerTracker load over 10,000 hands for me now, and these are real solid figures: I have seen 398 flops with either a suited Ace or a suited King. I'm quite certain that you should expect a flush 6% of the time. Of these hands I have 9 flushes. 9/398= 2.2%. I have flopped a 4 flush 32 times, odds say 35% to fill, I've filled 3. 3/32= 9%. I flopped 1 flush in 398, and don't know what the odds of a 5 card flush are. I have hit a 4th card to my flush 30 times on the turn, and filled 6. 20% v 19% odds.

I play mostly small limit hold 'em (not that that matters), and have read and studied 3 or 4 times, and play by Miller Sklansky, and Malmuth's "Small Stakes Hold 'em" book, and has previous studied at least 8 other books on the game.

I can live with the bad beats at the hands of poor players chasing a miracle and hitting, I would just like to get paid off making correct plays somewhere close to the odds.

Should I feel that something is fishy playing online, and adjust the strength I give flush draw online, completely against what is suggested in "Small Stakes Hold 'em", am I just terribly unlucky, or are these numbers not as far out of whack as I see them?

Re: Fishy or Bad run?
 

Sample size = way to small

I have personally gone through streches like that on quite a few occasiions and also the contrary I remember times where I made my flush 7 or 8 times in a row. It sucks to have runs like that, but all things will even out in the long run...even at Party

Re: Fishy or Bad run?
 

Sadly, it sounds like you are just seeing a short-term stretch of bad luck. Although 10k hands sounds like a lot, it really isn't for the "long run". Your numbers are definitely low on a statistical basis (for flushes), but those kind of things happen sometimes. (As a matter of fact, I have had a similar run over the past few months at the Crypto sites with flushes - thank goodness for bonuses, or I would be in the deep red there.)

I play on Party regularly, and had normal runs of flushes there, so things have this tendency to balance out over a very long period of time.

Re: Fishy or Bad run?
 

It all averages out over the long run. For me, the long run is 200K hands on PT, which I hae now stopped using.

One day I printed my totals (I was at about 60K hands) and then the next two days were really terrible. At the end of the second day I checked all my totals and saw that I had played just over 2000 hands, but I had not made a single flush. How is that possible? I don't know, but the very next day there was a post from someone here at 2+2 saying they were having a bad run and had gone 2000 hands without a flush...............

It happens.

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: Fishy or Bad run?
 

Yes. Party poker is rigged. Go back to your B&M.

Re: Fishy or Bad run?
 

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I have had PokerTracker load over 10,000 hands for me now,

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sorry, i stopped here.

come back later when you have 500,000++, or search for a post by tony (thwang? lil' help please) that shows expectations versus reality. all the numbers correlate fine. don't be a kook.

Re: Fishy or Bad run?
 

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I have seen 398 flops with either a suited Ace or a suited King. I'm quite certain that you should expect a flush 6% of the time. Of these hands I have 9 flushes. 9/398= 2.2%.

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Im sure you don't go to the river each and every time. So it is entirely possible that you have folded hands that would have turned into flushes bringing the number up a bit from nine.

But it seems you are having a bad run with suited cards lately. It happens. It is very annoying when it does. I've had long runs when practically nothing hits. No sets, no flushes or straights etc. I think it is also a perception issue. I think we pay more attention to bad luck as compared to good luck.