Difficult river decision.
 

Villian is new to the table but seems on the lagish side, hasn't shown down anything yet. Thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Button ($8.90)
SB ($47.45)
Hero ($26.15)
UTG ($14.15)
UTG+1 ($6.50)
MP1 ($11.55)
MP2 ($53.50)
CO ($23.95)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $2.75</font>, SB folds, Hero calls $1.75.

Turn: ($6.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $4</font>, Hero calls $4.

River: ($14.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $16.95 (All-In)</font>, Hero ?

Re: Difficult river decision.
 

If you thought your hand was best on the turn, it's still best on the river, so call. You have to anticipate back on the turn that villian is going to make a PSB on the river, which is his stack. If you call turn, you have to call river. Otherwise fold turn.

Re: Difficult river decision.
 

I probably fold to the flop raise. unless you have a read that he's incredibly aggro, there's nothing he raises with that you beat.

Re: Difficult river decision.
 

I strongly predict opponent has----two pair!

Re: Difficult river decision.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I strongly predict opponent has----two pair!

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's doubtful. Unless opponent is incredibly aggro, he's not raising Q9 on the flop, and unless he's capable of limping 92, 95 or 52, I really expect to see 55 or 22 almost 100% of the time.

Re: Difficult river decision.
 

Not that difficult. He has shown strength on every street and you have shown a willingness to call him down. At this level he is making a move on you close to never and if he has k9 here you should have noticed before. You have defined you hand pretty well and he is shoving hoping you will call.

Re: Difficult river decision.
 

Please don't go broke with one pair. Unless you has a very very strong reason for it.

Re: Difficult river decision.
 

You are up against an over pair or trips. Fold.

Your best outcome is he has A9 also. Unlikely. Limped in with small pair and hit trips, or had a big pair in early position and didn't want to just fold everybody with a big bet, so just called.

Re: Difficult river decision.
 

[ QUOTE ]
You have to anticipate back on the turn that villian is going to make a PSB on the river, which is his stack.
Why. A $4 bet doesn't mean a $17 bet next card to me just yet, but you may shed light on the matter in a new way.

Re: Difficult river decision.
 

I think against a tight opponent this is an easy laydown, I probably would've folded the turn. However I said this guy seemed lagish. so here is my thought process during the hand:

Flop - I really don't see why a set would raise this flop, there are next to no draws. An overpair seems unlikely as I'm positive he raises TT+ pf. So he has either an underpair, some 9 worse than mine, or nothing.

Turn - My hand is still probably best and a bet from me may scare him away, or worse he could raise and I'd be forced to give him credit for a hand he probably doesn't have. So I decide c/c is my best choice.

River - as another poster pointed out already if I'm ahead on the turn I'm still ahead on the river. So I insta-call he has A5o and MHIG.

I generally like a stronger read to make this call but against most LAG's you can't be afraid to put money in with marginal hands, especially when the betting doesn't make sense. JMO