OT: 1st Place percent 30s and 20s
 

Since the whole party thing I have been luckboxing insanely. Over 65 30s 18/4/5 for ITM finish. Including those and the 20s from this month and last month
381 played 68/33/42 ITM finish.

Obviously the 30s is ridiculous, but what is a realistic 1st place percent to go for . I have been playing very agressive ITM and on the bubble and I think it has helped. You should see me at the 50s by next week because of the nice BR jump.

Sorry there is no point to this post, its why its OT

Re: OT: 1st Place percent 30s and 20s
 

15%

Re: OT: 1st Place percent 30s and 20s
 

I'd be really happy with anything above 15%, but I guess it depends on what the rest of your finish distribution looks like. If I was getting ITM only 35% of the time or so, I'd be looking for like 20% 1sts. I think these numbers are pretty arbitrary, though.

Re: OT: 1st Place percent 30s and 20s
 

I'm 38% ITM and 7% 1st place finishes, I'm amazing.

Re: OT: 1st Place percent 30s and 20s
 

HU play is mostly about luck. Yeah you can usually outplay your opponent by pushing more then him (and watching him fold his SBB too much), but it comes down to winning the races over a small sample (even over 1000's of games).

In the 22's (WASD) - 11.8% 1sts and 12.5% 2nds

47.1% at 200/400, 40.1% at 250/500, 39.3% at 300/600

At the 33s (WASD) - 11.3% 1sts and 10.4% 2nds

50.3% at 200/400, 51.4% at 250/500, 48.9% at 300/600

Good luck getting to 15% 1sts unless you are getting really lucky.

Re: OT: 1st Place percent 30s and 20s
 

HU play is a lot of luck. Getting heads-up with a 2:1 chip-lead is the secret.

Re: OT: 1st Place percent 30s and 20s
 

Hmmm... I don't think heads up is mostly about luck at all. And I'm pretty sure in the 30s that just over a 16% 1st would definatly be possible long-term, assuming the bubbles play the same in the 30s as in the higher levels (people actually fold when they should).

I really don't know how the bubbles play, though, so I could definatly be off.

Re: OT: 1st Place percent 30s and 20s
 

... and depends how many chips you have when there is 2 players left. 8-tabling though, my HU strategy is basically push every hand which stack<8BB, people at $22 fold way too much.

Over 761 @ $22
1st 16.7%
2nd 9.3%

Standard error of 3.6%. Might be running slightly hot so I think 15% for 1st is sustainable at $22, of course, does mean sacrificing the ITM for a bigger stack end game.